Author Archives: Barry Kelly

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About Barry Kelly

Author of "Justice Beyond Law," "Justice Without Mercy," "Shades of Justice," "Justice Without Mercy," and "Run to Freedom," as well as two ,"nonfiction books ,"INSIGHTS-The Transforming of America," and "INSIGHTS-Stepping Stones to Tyranny. He also is the author of the blog "8 Decades of Insights." Barry Kelly is no stranger to the world of espionage, counter-terrorism, weapons, deep cover, and the inner workings of the governmental security apparatus. His immersion in the Cold War began with enlistment in the U.S. Navy during the Korean War. Following his discharge, he earned a BA from the University of Pittsburgh and a master’s degree from Duke. His career in the CIA included deep cover operations and overseas experience, primarily in South and Southeast Asia. He has been awarded the Certificate of Merit with Distinction, the Intelligence Medal of Merit, the Cross of Gallantry with Silver Star, the Distinguished Intelligence Medal and the Intelligence Officer of the Year Award. After retiring from the CIA, Kelly served as a special assistant to President Reagan. He holds a first dan black belt in hap-ki-do. Visit www.factsandfictions.com or find the author on Facebook.

Eight Decades of Insights – 9

Afghanistan. Yes, it is time to pack up and come home. The original mission was  to drive out the Taliban and deny Afghanistan as a training/staging site for al Qaeda. Five hundred or so CIA , Special Forces troops, plus the fighters of  the Northern Alliance assisted by the firepower of the US Air Force and Navy did exactly that years ago. War over. Mission accomplished. Leave some Special Forces and CIA personnel in country and focus on other strategic problems.

But no. Then the liberal politicians took over. Iraq was a mistake, they said. Afghanistan is the “good war.” Get the troops out of Iraq and surge our force in Afghanistan. Develop a nation-building strategy, for that is required by the new mission. Wait a minute, didn’t we try some of that in Vietnam? Our military forces, even though frustrated by archaic rules of engagement, never lost a firefight, much less a battle. In war, our uniformed men and women do very well. No one is better. But nation building is another thing. We don’t do that. No one trains in the skills, whatever they are, for nation building. If there wasn’t a nation there to start with, there will not be one when we quit trying. I know. I was there. Corrupt leaders ruling by military and police forces do not a nation make.

Alexander the Great, and his mixed  force from conquered  lands, once invaded and ruled Afghanistan but he did not make it a nation. And history does not tell us much about his success and tactics. Later, the British and Russians tried to invade and rule Afghanistan. Invading they found easy. Ruling was hard. They both left beaten and bloody. The Afghan tribes are not, never have been, and today are not ready to submit to a centralized government. Just ask the Pakistanis. How well have they have managed or extended their national authority to their tribal areas? Karzai is corrupt and with or without our military forces, he and his “centralized” government will not last.

Failure to succeed at nation building in Afghanistan cannot be blamed on U.S. military forces. They are the best. Just don’t expect them to create a nation out of tribes. Political authority that sees the world as they want or believe it to be rather than how it is should not expect anything but failure. Afghanistan is a near perfect example of “mission creep” and political expediency snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s time to leave. Do not spend anymore blood and treasure on mindless political objectives. Leave the course of Afghanistan to the tribes, and our intelligence people and Special Forces, none of whom are interested in nation building.  Afghanistan is not “the good war.”

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Filed under Afghanistan, Intelligence & Politics, political solutions, Politics, Uncategorized

Eight Decades of Insights – 8

I’ve noticed my ability to pontificate has increased with age. Since, at the same time, I believe I have some things to say, I’ll ignore this dangerous combination.  Pushing on through the twin perils of giving birth to boring text and unproven assertions, I decided to use my new skills to probe the next decade. No matter where I begin, the probe hits the barrier of political polarization just under the surface. The sharp divide along class lines and ideology that has arisen with Obama’s reign is not as dangerous to our way of life as the fissures leading to the Civil War or the War Between the States. Nomenclature is the responsibility of the reader.

It is nowhere close. Calls for class warfare and the redistribution of wealth will not lead to a clash of arms. The more reasonable and largest segment of our political spectrum is the Center. Who are tired of the ideological cries that ‘the sky is falling’ from the extreme left and right wings. President Obama is not an evil entity. He is merely an inept man clinging to a discarded ideology. With different life experiences, he might have made a fair to middling President. So far he has not done irreparable harm. Any pragmatic experienced leader/manager can get us back on track for his replacement will have a great force to assist him or her govern in 2012 or 2016.

The Center, consisting of moderates and pragmatists, can rally all Americans in the name of national survival. The financial crisis will focus our attention on the need to drastically cut spending and balance the national budget, leading to a much smaller national government. The Center knows the lessons of history. Keynesian economics, that believes government spending, even of borrowed money, can stimulate the national economy has never worked. Not for FDR and not for Obama. Americans have always been willing to make sacrifices in the name of national security and the well-being of the next generation. No fear, in the next four to eight years, the threat from irresponsible spending and borrowing will be clear to all. Well, maybe the ideologues on the far left will still debate using their own facts. But they will truly be voices in the wilderness.

Along with fiscal responsibility, an overhaul of the tax budget is necessary. A tax code that is understandable, progressive in nature, and drastically reduces the over 40% who pay no income taxes will alleviate the impact of the strident calls for class warfare and the anti-business rhetoric emanating from the Administration. Term limits on Congress are necessary to improve their responsiveness to the people they represent. Three terms for a Senator and five for House members seems both fair and pragmatic.

The next decade will bring a crisis in national defense. Probably very early in the decade. Again the citizens will rally behind the need for a strong military. The conflict with Islam militants will not go away until moderate followers of Islam put their own house in order. Their past record does not lead to much hope. Again the Center knows that peace comes through strength. Respect is a stronger force for influence in world politics than striving to be liked. The dangers of a nuclear Iran, a rogue Pakistan, an unmistakable growing militarism in China, a probable increasing radicalization of Islam, especially in the Middle East and a democracy killing leadership in Russia will motivate us to make the sacrifices necessary to defend our country and our friends. These threats will clearly expose The UN for what is has become, a forum for discussion of popular causes. At times nice to have, but not worth the disproportionate share of American dollars.

The next decade will see the United States become a major supplier of oil and natural gas and their derivative products. We are moving that way now. As soon as the fossil fuel hating bureaucracy is changed for a less ideological and more pragmatic regime our production of fuel will jump ahead. At the same time responsible investment in alternative sources of energy will be market driven with seed money from the national budget when necessary.

The free wheeling days of the Federal Reserve will come to an end. The printing of money and the unnatural  fixing of interest rates will require more than the deliberations of a group of experts meeting in secrecy. Another experiment that will run its course in the next ten years is the national control of education. It has not worked. The result has been a dumbing down of the educational system and the creation of the self-serving Teachers Union that has made a sham out of collective bargaining and failed to teach the nation’s children. The Department of Education will be abolished and replaced by a very small Presidential Advisory Council. The primary role of educating our children will be delegated to the States.

Two more important changes will occur.  A centrist government and those who elected it, will wonder if the government having more union members than the private sector is a good thing. The government union members have no skin in the game and really no  one with whom to conduct collective bargaining. Certainly the government bureaucrats on the other side of the table have no skin in the  game. In the private sector where real collective bargaining takes place as long as the government stays out of it are moving toward having a real stake in the company they work for. That’s a good thing. My last look into the future is in the area of medical care. Any government elected by the Center has to take on medical care of the people. There are pragmatic solutions. Using the forces of the market place to the extent possible is a starting point. Any system that allows patients to deal with their doctors and to have a say in the cost of their treatment will have an impact on pricing.

Obviously you cannot do justice to the next decade in a thousand words. But we all need to think about this coming election and concentrate on the real issues at stake. If not now, it will get harder and more dangerous later. It is time to begin.

Thank you to those who have read this.

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Filed under class warfare, Intelligence & Politics, political solutions, Politics

INSIGHTS FROM EIGHT DECADES #7

Small is good. Big is bad. At least that is what we hear in our political debate. I much prefer small government, but small government can also be inefficient, politically motivated and corrupt. Even when government is made smaller, it can still be integrated and centralized beyond the management skill of humans. In my previous blog, I discussed the ‘centralization’ process and its profound effect on efficiency.Today,I want to develop the theme further without getting into mind numbing detail and too many words.

The key words are founders and guardians. Organizations in the beginning of their history can point to the people who were the founders. With maturation, nearly all organizations slowly, but inexorably, move into the control of the guardians. These well meaning good people use the power of process to protect and perpetuate the organization they inherited. Process expertise does not involve the understanding or the furtherance of the founder’s mission, it is solely concerned with the way the mission is accomplished. You have all seen them. They are the enablers of the units who focus on personnel management, accounting, logistics, communications and finance. Good people all and their skills are needed and respected. They should not supplant the line mission leaders. The downside is the effect of their process requirements on the effectiveness and direction of the line mission of the unit. Seldom can a person with process skills actually lead people engaged in the primary mission of the organization they serve.

A few organizations have a built in correction factor that eventually keeps them in the control of people who understand how the mission is accomplished. There are people who are natural warriors who deeply understand the mission and how it must be accomplished. These natural warriors don’t often survive the growing process and procedures of a few decades of peace. We have never gone to war successfully with the leadership of our military that is in power after a long period of peace. After a period of disasters and tentative fumbling, the leadership is replaced with military leaders who can fight a war. Look back at all our conflicts and you will easily note the changes. The Civil War being one that clearly shows the search for military leadership.

Other non military organizations have a somewhat different means to keep the people from the front edge of their respective mission in leadership roles. They have an ingrained system of metrics that clearly indicate success and failure. For example, the world of sports, entertainment, engineering and medicine do not long tolerate poor performance. They have a way to reinvigorate themselves, usually by constantly upgrading the team or unit with the best people they can find. Professional and college sports teams are a good example. Points scored, yards gained, rebounds, track times, winning coach records all make a clear metric for us all to follow. Imagine professional football coaching ranks having a number of coaches who never played, coached or even followed the game. What impact would that have on the players and fans? Imagine how the men and women of some of our leading agencies respond to their bosses who never walked in their shoes and could not do so now. They barely understand the problems and methods of the organization.

Political is not above these concerns. As in any other field, people can master the language and process of campaigning for office or career without having any substantive skills or experience. In general, I greatly prefer Governors, Generals and CEOs, rather than Legislators, as presidential candidates. Leaders and managers cannot learn their skills without experience encompassing failures as well as successes.

Comments welcome.

Incidentally I’m easing back into my Storyteller role. My second novel is now in the hands of the editors. I hope to publish it by May of this year.

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Filed under Intelligence & Politics, political solutions, Politics

INSIGHTS FROM EIGHT DECADES #6

CENTRALIZATION

President George W. Bush signs the Homeland Se...

President George W. Bush signs the Homeland Security Appropriations Act of 2004 on October 1, 2003. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Does every civilization contain the seeds of its destruction? Maybe the historians are right when they publish learned tomes describing trends and signals of certain decline in  highly organized cultures. Conservatives sometimes claim when the ‘takers’ out number and out vote the ‘givers’ the end is coming. Maybe, maybe not. Another signal I’ve recently heard is fascination or obsession with spectator sports or games is a sure sign we’re sledding downhill. Again, maybe. I don’t find either of those or a number of others, persuasive.

My own worry is the embedded drive in humans to continue the process of centralization. Defined as combining segments of government, business or religion into fewer and fewer segments where fewer and fewer people make decisions. This process expands the scope of control beyond the ability of anyone to be an effective manager and steward of public funds. It is all part of the desire to make things better. Watch, when things go ‘wrong’ the cry is, put someone in charge. Make someone responsible. 9/11 gave us that opportunity. Something was wrong. How else could such blow strike our homeland? A conservative government, under President Bush, moved to fix the problem. By, of course, putting pieces of government together under a central  control. To start with the pieces of government in their separateness, were not well managed. Many of them were already too large.

Today Homeland Security, is an example of centralizing management until you reach numbing inefficiency. Another example is the DNI organization. The Director of National Intelligence is about the worst fix anyone could have made to improve the collection, analysis and dissemination of intelligence. I defy anyone to prove money is being saved or that the product produced has been improved. Top managers of such over centralized organizations don’t have a clue to what is happening in the trenches. Their main concern is often getting enough reporting from the far reaches of their commands to make them look credible, especially when briefing the President or appearing before an aggressive group of journalists or legislators.

Unfortunately both our main political parties are vulnerable to the drive to fix things by centralization. National Health Care or Obamacare, Dodd Frank, over reaches of OPA and the Department of Energy are examples of good intentions leading to disastrous unforeseen consequences.

While some centralization is necessary, decentralization is the sure path to renewed growth and vitality in both business and government. Good people in charge of manageable organizations can fix problems. Over centralization cannot.

by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller series         http://www.factsandfictions.com

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Filed under complexity, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, Intelligence & Politics, management theory, political solutions, Politics, Terrorism

INSIGHTS FROM EIGHT DECADES #5

January is here and a new election experience faces all of us. What can we expect? All writers have biases. Mine is I used to be a Democrat and am now a Republican. The change is partly to age and changing values. The dramatically increasing influence of the Progressive Wing of the Democratic party also is a big factor in my bias. National Security issues are very important to me, having spent nearly all my working life playing a role in the Cold War. Two years as a Special Assistant to President Reagan made me more than a Reagan Democrat. So enough about my bias. First what can Republicans hope for: The Party will nominate the candidate that seems to be the most electable. Nothing is more important than the limiting of the incumbent to one term. Fiscal responsibility, a serious effort to decrease the national debt, a strong military, a smaller Federal Government that promotes an environment that stimulates growth and increases jobs, a simpler and fairer tax code, welfare and medical assistance delegated to the states,a President who respects the Constitutional bounds on his/her power, and a foreign policy that supports our friends and allies while earning respect for American power around the world. Those  broad hopes seem to be appropriate to both parties and I think they are, but the rhetoric of the White House is beating a different drum.

The democratic drum of the Democratic Party leaders calls for a different kind of nation than I grew up in and served. I’m pretty good at understanding drum beats but I maybe a little off base here. For I hear a call to class warfare through the glorification of the middle class and the evil of the one percent. I also hear a cry for the systematic distribution of wealth in a quest for equality. The desire to increase the number of people on some sort of Federal assistance is prevalent. The shrinking of the military, both personnel and weapons budget, is a clear part of the message. The desire to protect citizens from all sorts of threats from our capitalist free market society is clear in past and pending regulations. Strongest of all is the belief that only government can solve today’s problems. What I distill from the total call of  the drum is we must move to a European Socialist economy dependent on Keynesian monetary principles. Sorry, no thanks.

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by | January 13, 2012 · 11:06 pm