Category Archives: foreign policy

by | September 2, 2013 · 2:25 pm

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 73-ADVISOR

SYRIA

Safe in the Shadows

It was after midnight when the Advisor answered his red line phone and heard the codeword indicating the President was on his way. Minutes later, the President opened the steel door off the tunnel between the White House and the Treasury. As soon as he stepped in, he said, “I need a cup of your special coffee and a cigarette.”

“It’s poured and waiting for you. It’s late and you must be tired. Do you want to sit at the table or in my little conversation nook?”

“Lead me to the softest chair. I am beat. This Syrian thing has gotten out of control. All my advisors have spoken with their usual, on the one hand or the other comments they think are helpful advice. I decided to come and see you. I seldom like what you tell me but you make me think and clear up the fog of political chatter.”

“Thank you, Mr. President. You by now know that I like to start from the beginning. The Syrian problem was out of control during your first term with people from your Cabinet and key Progressive congressional figures rushing out to Syria and coming back with stories like the message Secretary Clinton brought back about President Assad being a reformer your administration could work with. As you understand, Mrs. Clinton is out of her element in the demanding nature of international diplomacy. She represented you and left you with a mess. A mess that now has little chance of turning out well for the nation and your presidency.”

“I understand and agree with you, but the decision I have to make is simply whether I should authorize a limited strike against Assad and under what conditions.”

“With all respect, Mr. President that is not the decision confronting you. It is much deeper and more complicated. The time when limited support to the opposition would have made a difference was at least two years ago. That window is now closed. Don’t think Syria. Think Iran and Russia. Syria is a weak arm of Iranian power in the Middle East. Syria’s role for Iran is primarily as a conduit for supplies to Hezbollah. Without that safe passageway for Iranian aid to Hezbollah, the ability of Hezbollah to control Lebanon and threaten Israel would vanish. On the Russian side, their primary interest is in securing a warm water port for their fleet. Ostensibly they now have one in Syria that is even now supporting a Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean. For that reason Russia will not allow you to get UN support for any military action in Syria.”

“The Russians must know I’m not going to invade Syria. I’m only planning on a limited strike.”

“Again with respect, Mr. President, there is no such thing as a limited strike. You can order a limited strike, but your opponents, understanding the lack of enthusiasm for another war in the Arab world resulting in a flood of body bags and an outflow of our treasure, can respond in a way to expand the conflict. Then you will feel a response is necessary. For example, if one or two of our ships are attacked and sunk, you will have to respond in self-defense. This will not be a Ben Ghazi where you can do nothing. Your choices are limited. You can do nothing. You can do a limited cruise missile strike and hope for the best or you can destroy Assad’s air power and punish Syria for using chemical weapons and give the rebels a much better chance to overthrow Assad. Whatever you decide, the power position of the United States in the Middle East has been seriously eroded.

“There is one other option. Take the problem to the Congress and blame them for whatever happens. They can be made to be at fault, no matter what they decide to do. This is an  Alinsky-ite dream. The issue is never the issue. Use all issues to destroy the obstacles preventing you from seizing total power. Your former Secretary of State who wants to replace you will be pleased. Your decision can damage your influence in the Progressive Party. If Secretary Kerry had any thoughts of seceding you as President, you have destroyed that possibility for him. He took the bait and now looks like the man who turned on his country in the Vietnam War.”

“It amazes me that you can sit down here in a modern cave and have so many insights. You even understand  my anti-colonial bias. I do not like to use American military power to restore western power in the Middle East. I can’t bring myself to attack Syria with only the French, with their legacy of subjugating Syria in the Colonial period, as an ally. What would you do in my place?”

“That is too hypothetical even for me. When in doubt, doing nothing is often the best choice. Remember the sarin gas killed approximately a thousand people in a terrible agony that was captured by the cameras. Assad’s forces killed a hundred times that many prior to the chemical attack. My last comment is where did Assad get that quantity of chemical weapons? He certainly didn’t produce them in Syria. Do you think a large part of them came from Iraq? The country that had no weapons of mass destruction even though they used chemical weapons against the Kurds and Shias. Mr. President, my best advice is to surround yourself with people who live in the real world, not in some virtual world they can control with propaganda and an endless mantra of untruths chanted in unison to the American people.”

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. The author has 27 years of Government service,

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to share this on Facebook and to click the “like” button below. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful. Find and connect with the author on Goodreads.

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by | August 29, 2013 · 8:00 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 72 – THE ADVISOR

 THE PRESIDENT’S POLICIES

Safe in the Shadows

It had been three weeks since the President had left the Advisor to deal with a crisis. The Advisor was still pondering how to see the world from President Obama’s viewpoint. If he could manage to see the world through the same lens maybe he could be of more help to the President. Three weeks ago the President had sounded enthusiastic about answering some of the same questions The Advisor of 1932 asked President Roosevelt when he, too, was struggling to find common ground. The Roosevelt Journal of 1932 was open on the Advisor’s desk when the phone rang. He picked it up and heard the codeword that meant the President was on his way down. The Advisor rushed to put on a fresh pot of Sumatra Roast and to get out a pack of the President’s favorite cigarettes. He just finished arranging the small conference table when the door swung open and the President stepped in. He crossed to his seat at the table and murmured  to the Advisor, “Everywhere I go there is a table or a seating arrangement with a place preordained for me to sit. At least here I can sit anywhere. Right?”

“Yes, Mr. President, you can sit anywhere. In our lore, this is part of the Oval Office.”

“Except that I can’t bring any guests.”

“Of course you can. I just won’t be here.”

“The last time I was here, you asked  if you could ask me some of the same questions one of your predecessors asked President Roosevelt. If it was okay with FDR it is okay with me. I believe you asked me what I meant by my phrase, ‘transform America.’ Is that right?”

The Advisor nodded and said, “Yes and take your  time. I believe the answer to that question is the foundation of your polices.”

“Yes. It is. But not many of my own staff understand. By transforming America I mean getting this great nation on the right path to benefit all Americans and all the people in the world. I believe we have been following a wrong path for years, displaying our power and our wealth as a license for intervening in the sovereign affairs of other nations. Who do we think we are, gathering far more than our share of wealth and using most of the world’s energy to increase our wealth and power? The right path for this nation is to take  the lead in distributing our national wealth to all the nations of the world and to unilaterally reduce our military strength so all the world can see we no longer have the power to dominate. Our future is to be a responsible member of the United Nations and give up deciding what we should do in our own interests. You see, leading from behind is the promise of the future. It is this soft power we have lacked. America has a deep history of the establishment and failure of utopian societies.

“By really sharing our wealth and equalizing opportunities so no one can control more than their fair share of wealth, we will bring into being the real promise of freedom, not for the individual, but for all the people. One person, one vote, one party is the real promise of democracy. In my time as President, I will do all I can to distribute wealth, first nationally and then internationally. I will, at the same time, redirect our military by reducing its man power and weaponry.

“The only real law is international law applied to both people and nations. Why should an act be criminal in some country and not in others? What is fair about that? It is an honor to  have the United Nations Headquarters in America. I will channel more and more of our wealth and security policies through the UN. The early utopians did not think big enough and did not have the necessary ruthlessness to protect, defend, and spread their philosophy. I do.”

“Mr. President, thank you for explaining  your policy of transformation. I’m now in a better position to give you advice whenever you come down to see me. Like yourself, most Presidents don’t need or want strategic policy advice. In the journals, most have sought tactical advice to further a program in support of their broader policy goals. I would like to talk with you the next time you can come about the obstacles you see in your way to achieving ‘transformation.'”

The President was already standing, crushing his cigarette and remarked, “The lawyer in me enjoys our sessions. No one makes me think the way you do. Now I have to go.”

The Advisor watched the door slowly close and lock. He said aloud, “It’s all in the open now. I must be careful to understand his core beliefs before giving any advice.  Like some of my trail-breaking Advisors of times past, I’m truly frightened.”

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. The author has 27 years of Government service,

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to share this on Facebook and to click the “like” button below. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful. Find and connect with the author on Goodreads.

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by | August 19, 2013 · 9:07 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 70 – THE ADVISOR

 EGYPT AND OBAMA

Safe in the Shadows

The Advisor sat in front of his wide-screen TV watching the streets of Cairo turn to chaos. Minutes later he was astonished at President Obama’s comments on nationwide TV. Advisors were not to be surprised by the actions and statements of their Presidents. For the past two weeks, since the President had not sought his advice, the Advisor had been frantically searching the Presidential Journals written by Advisors since Washington’s first term. He had a treasure of history lined up on the floor to ceiling book shelves. Surely there were bits of history that would help him advise this President, he had thought. His search had not turned up evidence of another Advisor being  continually surprised by the man in the Oval Office.

Recently, a thought had been trying to insert itself in his thinking. Maybe he was using the wrong assumption. All of his predecessors assumed, rightly, that their Presidents were seeking solutions to problems affecting the nation’s well being and progress. What if President Obama has a different vision? A vision that required the destruction of the present to usher in a period of greater fairness and equality for, not just America, but for the entire world? He definitely had a serious problem with the colonial past of both Great Britain and, a different kind of world domination by the United States. Nothing he was doing or planning to do would improve National Security or the nation’s economy. His record showed he was constantly putting obstacles in the way of national independence in the energy field from fossil fuels in favor of a vision of green energy from non-existent technology that was, at least, several decades in the future. Cheap energy in America would do more to bring back manufacturing jobs and products than all his cumbersome regulations and pronouncements. 

Egypt is what brought the President’s destructive words and actions into focus. Here, the people rejected a military dictatorship for free elections and democracy. Their sacrifices brought elections that put the most organized opposition into power. The Muslim Brotherhood  is not a political party. It’s like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Both are armed militias that do a modicum of social work. Once acquiring power, either by coup or the ballot box, they do not give up power. One person, one vote, one time. Germany under the Nazi party had a similar experience. Once the Muslim  Brotherhood under Morsi gained power they moved immediately to ensure their permanency. Their intent was not to benefit the Egyptian people or nation, it was to install an Islamic nation under sharia law.

The Egyptian people ousted the dictatorship of the Brotherhood with the backing of the Army. President Obama gave lukewarm support to the overthrow of Morsi, while lamenting the loss of democracy. The Brotherhood took the fight to the streets demanding the return of Morsi and democracy, vowing to fight to the death. The streets are jammed with Brotherhood supporters, even though they are a definite minority. Chaos is spreading. The already shaky economy is vanishing. The Army moves to restore order. The Brotherhood uses weapons to fight back. Casualties mount on both sides. Progressives, with the President at the point, condemn the Army’s brutality in putting down the Brotherhood revolt, demanding a return to the democratic process and canceling a joint U.S.-Egypt military exercise.

Clearly President Obama has sided with the Muslim Brotherhood. Both Progressives and their Presidential leadership forget that if you added two zeros to the number of dead in Egypt you would still have far fewer dead than in Syria, where a hands-off policy was Obama’s choice. Yet with Christian churches burning and armed Brotherhood roaming the streets of Egypt, President Obama calls for talks and negotiations to restore the democratic process.

The Advisor mused. Doesn’t he know there are times when talk is impossible? A return to democratic elections would only mean the best organized and ruthless group, Morsi and the Brotherhood would win again. This time there would be no return. The Camp David agreement between Egypt and Israel would end. Morsi would align Egypt with Iran and attempt to establish an Islamic Empire, forcefully rejecting all Western influence. The war for Islamic dominance is on and our President is supporting the Islamists. His circle of advisors has several Islamists pressing their version of the future.

I must find a way to show the President a different vision. A war between Islam and Christianity is not in America’s interest. Islam weakness is its rejection of reality and the absence of love and forgiveness in its theology. There is nothing democratic about Sharia Law. It is a real war on women.

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. http://www.factsandfictions.com. The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to pass on this blog or parts of it to your contacts and friends. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful.

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

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by | August 15, 2013 · 7:00 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSTIGHTS 69-ADVISOR

Safe in the Shadows

PROBLEMS

The Advisor sat slumped in his chair. For the first time in his life he felt inadequate.  His President and the nation needed help. There were so many problems, he wasn’t sure where to start or even if he should start.

Only one thing to do, he thought.  Pull out your journal and put down your problems. If you can’t help President Obama solve them, at least you can record them. The record may help another President and his Advisor.

He uncapped his Waterman fountain pen, dipped it in the open inkwell to get the flow started, and wrote in large printed letters at the top of a clean page, PROBLEMS. Wondering what to write next, he just started to write. The words flowed like they were pouring from a deep wound in the Nation’s body. 

Obamacare: Here’s an unpopular program that addresses a national need. Nearly everyone believes health care in America is broken and needs fixed. If this President could get over his revolutionary philosophy that pushes him to use every issue to destroy the opposition, it would be easy to pass a bipartisan bill that keeps the good parts of Obamacare and meets the nation’s needs without polarizing the populace. There is a constitutional process that could make this happen. President Obama has to take the lead. He shouldn’t worry about  the opposition. They are without leaders and nearly hopeless. Also the President and his Progressive supporters must accept constitutional limits on executive powers and the role of the states. This is not a hard problem. Ignoring it can lead to impeachment talk.

After health care, the sweeping ink trail took up the energy problem.

To start with, energy is too important to be left to spineless politicians and those progressives who believe humans can control climate and its worldwide effects. How can anyone trust politicians or executive department heads such as EPA who refuse to recognize that the world’s climate has and does change, almost constantly in historical terms? The changes are not caused by humans. Humans weren’t even present for many of the changes. How about the time when there were two miles of ice over the place now occupied by Chicago? How many emissions from cars and coal-fired plants did it take to warm up the Earth then?  Any objective person of science knows that minute changes in the Earth’s orbit, the energy put out by the sun, and the occasional meteorite might have been instrumental in changes in the world’s temperature.

Again, a bipartisan energy program would not be hard to accomplish if the President could bring himself to cast aside the misguided environmentalists and focus on an intelligent use of fossil fuels while investing modest sums in finding a cleaner form of energy in this century. In the meantime, I must help him recognize that the civilization we have today and may have tomorrow, is because of fossil fuel. Pipelines, drilling on- and off-shore for oil and natural gas and building refineries are good for the nation and cheap energy will bring manufacturing jobs back to America. Massive amounts of tax dollars, poured recklessly into solar cells and wind turbines, will not magically develop even ten percent of our energy requirements.

The Advisor liked to write and ponder problems by candlelight. The flickering light was a constant reminder of how close we are to the past. He felt we are much closer to the time of our founders than we are to the citizens of the next century. Of course, that is what history is all about. Knowing the past will help us get safely into the future. Maybe, that is the message I can get across to the President.

Even I have to get some sleep. I’ll leave National Security, overstepping of executive power, and the economy for another session. If the President comes back, I will have something for him.

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. http://www.factsandfictions.com. The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to pass on this blog or parts of it to your contacts and friends. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful.

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

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by | July 22, 2013 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 65

Safe in the Shadows

LEADING FROM BEHIND–THE ADVISOR

The Advisor was thinking about how forceful he could be in advising President Obama. The subject for his next visit would be the consequences in foreign policy of leading from behind. The President wasn’t a stupid or a cruel man.   He was just a man who carried an enormous amount of baggage.

Could anyone walk away from the influences he was subject to in his earlier life? the advisor thought. Some he was personally responsible for, others he had no real choice. Parents from far to the left, several years in a Muslim Madrassi teaching Wahhabism. His father, an anti-colonialist Kenyan, whose family had been persecuted by the British Colonialists. For most of his formidable years he was exposed to radical leftist ideologies. Then, the influence of Ivy League progressives, Saul Alinsky and his radical plan for seizing power, Reverend Wright and his hate America sermons, William Ayers and his terrorist viewpoint and to top it off the ruthless and corrupt school of Chicago politics. The President never personally suffered from his associations and ideology. Therefore, he has no understanding of  the consequences of following a revolutionary ideology. It is probably too late now but I must try. I will never knowingly give him bad advice or try to manipulate him. My mission code does not allow it. After all, he was elected twice and could probably win a third term if it were permitted.

The advisor’s musing is interrupted when the flashing red light and soft chiming called him to the phone.

The President arrived a few minutes later at nine o’clock PM. The President strode into the room, greeted the advisor and said, “Let’s get started. I have some extra time and need a cup of your coffee.”

“Mr. President, you look like a man who doesn’t have a care in the world.”

“Today was good day. No one was asking me to do the impossible. Why do my supporters and staff think I should get involved in everything?”

“You are the ‘point of the spear.’ They count on you to give them what they want without understanding that doing nothing is also, at times, a good action plan. There, a perfect opening for my talk. Remember, you told me to pick the topic. So I’m going to talk about the concept of leading from behind. Please interrupt at any time. I’m going to use foreign affairs as a backdrop for my advice.

“You are in the fifth year of your Presidency. That is long enough for you to own America’s position in the world. You will not like some of my statements. But I will assure you, the the facts are correct. My analysis may be faulty because I project it into the future where no one can be absolutely sure they are right. First our main adversary, Russia. They are stronger now than they were before your election. Today their fleet is in the Mediterranean, something that was inconceivable in the last several decades. They have nearly secured a warm water port in the Med, a Russian goal going back to the czars. They failed in Afghanistan to find a corridor to warm water. Russia’s ability to project power has been limited for centuries because they lacked a port with year round operations capability. The Syrian port of Tartous is the payoff for their support to Assad. Sure, they enjoy threatening American and Israeli interests in the Middle East, but Tartous is the real goal.

“To see more clearly the Russian move into the Middle East, imagine a monopoly game where the winner gains areas of influence and the losers, well, lose. You failed to negotiate a status of forces agreement in Iraq where it was in no one’s interest for the U.S. to abandon the country. Certainly sectarian violence would be lessened if we had a seat at the table. Iran could not supply Syria forces through or over Iraq. Iran could not threaten Iraq if we had maintained a presence in Iraq. Iran would have a harder time supplying Hezbollah and using that force to control Lebanon, another possibility for Russia to exploit to acquire a warm water port. Our anti-ballistic missiles on the ground in Iraq could bring more defense against an Iranian attack on Israel or the Sunni Middle East. ‘Leading from Behind’ policies have resulted in our loss of space supremacy, ABM land-based systems, and talks about unilaterally cutting force size and our inventor of ballistic missiles that have kept us from a nuclear war since WWII.  Our loss of influence in Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and Pakistan is not a foreign affairs victory. Leading from behind means you are and will remain behind.

“Leading from behind does not win respect in the world. Your monopoly board does not look good. Putin has no respect for you as leader because he sees you weakening America and, therefore, believes you are not someone he should worry about. Most of the world respects power and distrusts weakness. To world leaders words don’t matter. Words without action are invisible. To start with I advise you to say less and do more. You can project American power without following the old colonial pattern you hate so much.”

The President puts his cup down, grinds out his cigarette.

The Advisor says, “Yes. I have known ever since you sent the bust of Winston Churchill back to England. Your constant concern is for the little nation, the poor people, the Muslim nations over the Colonial West. If you achieve your goal of leveling America and the world, you’ll destroy both and civilization of all will suffer. But that is for another time.”

The President gets up and strides to the door. He looks back as he leaves and says, “You can’t be right.”

The Advisor says, “Goodnight Mr.President,” to the sound of an automatic locking door.

He thought, that went well.

 

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels.   http://www.factsandfictions.com 

The author has 27 years of Government  service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to pass on this blog or parts of it to your contacts and friends. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful.

  • Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

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