Category Archives: foreign policy

by Barry Kelly | October 13, 2016 · 7:22 am

The Professor’s op-ed on the Middle East and the U.S.

In between honors classes one day, the Professor thought, “I just can’t stand it any longer. No one is telling the people the truth about the Middle East. Does the Obama Administration and the Clinton campaign think we are too dumb? Trump’s instincts are good, but he needs to bone up on the area. The Russians are not in the Middle East to fight ISIS and Putin is not about to make any deals that do not further his plan to hold a naval base on the Mediterranean and to be a major on the ground player in the oil patch. I just have to write an op-ed piece.”

He pulled his keyboard toward him, looked out over the bay, and began to write.

First, there are a couple of truths about our strategic past in the Middle East. Forget the lines and names drawn on maps of the Middle East. Think of the area divided between the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims with the nation of Israel maintaining a stronghold in the midst of the struggle for dominance by the Shia and Sunnis. The Iranians are the leaders of the Shias and the Saudis, Arabs of the Gulf States and Egypt leading the Sunni opposition.

ISIS, al-Qaeda and their splinter groups are Sunni. The Obama-Clinton group has thrown American support to the Iranians, who want to use their new power to dominate the Middle East. President Obama always intended to follow the Shia/Iranian lead. That is why the abrupt pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq as soon as Obama came to power. The Iranians wanted the U.S. forces out of Iraq so that the Iraqi Shia could assume full control over the Iraqi military and economy and oust Sunnis from the military and government. (Remember, the Iraqi led Sunni government under Saddam Hussein fought a very bloody war against the Iranians.)

The Iraqi Shia government is now firmly allied with Iran. This is a government in name only. Iranians control all major moves in their drive to control a Shia empire of what is now Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. ISIS with all the terrible atrocities they have committed represented Sunni opposition to Iranian strategic goals. When they are destroyed, the strongest power on the ground will be Iran. When Mosel falls, it will be with the heavy involvement of Iranian weapons and ground forces. The Turks will stay within their territory and the only other viable fighting force, the Kurds, will be isolated with dreams of their own homeland shattered. With all of the talk from Washington about arming the Kurds, we never did. The Iranians and the Turks do not want the Kurds to be armed with modern weapons. All the arms we said were being sent to the Kurds went through the Baghdad Shia government that never sent them onward. The Obama Administration, of course, knew the Kurds would never receive the weapons. There is literally nothing the Iranians want that the Obama/Clinton group will not do their best to supply. Just look at the recent deal Obama made with Iran on their nuclear weapons program. While not called a treaty, that was what this deal is. Why take that route? Simply a way to avoid the need for Congressional ratification. We, the people, and Congress still have not seen all the pieces of this executive action.

On the Russian side, Putin is a modern day czar of Russia. His goal is to re-establish as much of the old Soviet Empire as possible. The weakness of the Obama presidency has given him a grand opening. For many centuries, Russian czars dreamed and planned to acquire a warm-water port for their navy. Without firing a shot or endangering Russian soldiers, he has acquired Tartus in Syria as a Russian warm-water port. That is now a fact. The fleet is there and weapons to defend it are in place. Putin will do what he must to support Assad. He is not in Syria to fight ISIS. Aleppo is the only evidence anyone should need. ISIS was not there but Syrian anti-Assad forces were. The city is now rubble as a result of Russian historic lack of concern for collateral deaths when their critical national interests are involved. Since Iran is the local protector and supporter of Assad and Syria, Putin will make any deal necessary with Iran to protect his naval base at Tartus and his new role in Middle Eastern oil. Obama’s plan for Iranian hegemony in the Middle East is on solid ground with both U.S. and Russia supporting Iran and the Shia Muslims.

INSIGHTS 275: President Trump – What is the Risk?

These thoughts are for those of you who voted twice for Obama and are now in the Hillary Clinton camp.

After eight years of the progressive rule of Obama, what does your country look like? Have you noticed transparency of government operations never happened? The Obama administration can’t seem to tell the truth about issues as important as unemployment figures. Can you believe from what you see that the unemployment number is 5.5 percent? I hope not. Any accurate honest accounting would put the unemployment number at near 15 percent. If you drop all the spin and count people who have dropped out of the workforce because they have given up on finding a job, the figure would be much more accurate.

Have you noticed that the moderate centrist Democratic Party is gone? It has been taken over by the progressives, who will never give it back. The real goal of the progressives is to turn American politics into a one-party system where the government controls the economy and moves the United States into some form of an international world order.

Have you noticed that American economic, moral and military power has been greatly reduced from pre-Obama days? American warplanes have run out of the spare parts needed to keep our ancient planes operating and new ones are not being built. Our military manpower (male and female) is now near or below pre-World War II levels. Never has peace come from weakness, yet the progressive party of Obama and Clinton is trying the historical failed policy of peace through appeasement again. Part of the result is tragically apparent in the Middle East where the human costs of Obama’s failure to act is approaching world war levels and Clinton is promising more of the same.

Have you noticed the ‘Rule of Law’ no longer applies to government wrongdoing? No one or organization important to the progressives is ever held accountable. The Justice Department under Eric Holder and Loretta Lynch has been politicized beyond anything we have ever seen. The Watergate Nixon affair that we all thought was so bad now seems like an everyday executive action.

Have you noticed the national debt has doubled under the Obama administration and that the economy is stagnating even after unprecedented stimulus funds were poured into the economy? Wall Street and its investor class has prospered while Main Street businesses have suffered. The Clintons and their questionable foundation have grown rich. The Justice Department, reportedly, has prevented the FBI from investigating corruption and conflict of interest issues regarding the financial affairs of the Clinton Foundation.

Have you noticed nothing in the progressives’ management of the nation seems to have worked? The IRS, VA, EPA, DOJ, education, foreign policy, the Pentagon, intelligence gathering and analysis and immigration. Just pick an area. The result will be the same. The nation needs real changes. A lot of crockery needs to be broken. I believe Mr. Trump can do that. He has the ego and I hope the expertise to solve many of our problems. He’s not a perfect candidate and he needs to demonstrate a higher level of discipline and analysis. But the risk of a Trump Administration is far less than four or eight more years of Obama through Hillary. I know where that will lead and do not want to go there under any circumstances.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Clinton, Conservative views, democrats, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, political solutions, Progressives, trump

Tagged as 2016, Clinton, hillary, Obama, presidential election, trump

by Barry Kelly | July 27, 2016 · 8:13 pm

INSIGHTS 272 IRAQ: WHAT’S HAPPENING?

At best Iraq, is a small Shiite nation with a port on the Persian Gulf and with a rich heritage of Shiite sites and some oil fields. Its past history of being a Middle Eastern military power capable of challenging Iran is gone. Its military was largely made up of Sunni tribes and Kurds; it is now almost purely Shiite. The United States moved from being Iraq’s most powerful enemy to being its primary supporter.

As its enemy, America destroyed Hussein’s military and political infrastructure. As its supporter, we presided over Iraq’s demise and the rise of ISIS. The White House, the State Department and the Pentagon still call the area that Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq. But it no longer exists. It evaporated with the withdrawal of American presence years ago. When the Pentagon and the State Department speak of the progress of the Iraqi Army they support, they are talking about the Shiite Army under Baghdad control. Any success of the Iraqi army on the battlefield is dependent solely on American and Iranian forces.

The Iraqi Army could not take Fallujah and hold it without American and Iranian support. The same is true for Mosel. Iranian militias will continue to provide the Iraqi Army with thousands of Shiite ground troops. The only winner in what used to be Iraq will be Iran. When very weak but rich nations border powerful nations, they often end up being absorbed. The term Iraq may continue to refer to Baghdad and areas South, but it will most likely be a province of Iran. I believe the White House is totally prepared for Iran to absorb Iraq.

When America and its allies defeat ISIS, they must be careful not to let the entire area of Sunni Tribes and Kurds also be absorbed by Iran. You can draw up a scenario which shows an American led coalition victory over ISIS could end up adding territory, people and oil wealth to Iran. Neither the Kurds or the Sunnis, alone or together, can withstand Iran. Only U.S. forces can do that. Under this administration or a Clinton progressive follow on, American forces will not be deployed against Iran. The transformation strategy of the Obama era for the Middle East will have taken a giant step forward.

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, ISIS, Kurds, Middle East, Obama, oil, Shiite, Sunni

Tagged as Clinton, hillary, Iran, iraq, Middle East, Obama, politics

by Barry Kelly | May 31, 2016 · 2:01 pm

INSIGHTS 260: Lost in the Wilderness

The Iraqi Army is attacking the ISIS stronghold of Fallujah that is also the place al Qaeda Iraq was born. The struggle in Iraq was so much simpler when the U.S. Marines recaptured Fallujah. Much blood and treasure was spent in the heroic Marine push into Fallujah. A decade later more blood, including some more American blood, will be spent in another abortive attempt to ignore facts on the ground and restore a Shiite Iraqi government to power.

It has been apparent for many years that Iraq is not now and never was a cohesive nation. Harsh Sunni dictators kept the lines on the maps that were labelled Iraq in place. The other two elements in Iraq, the Shiites and the Kurds, did not share in the governing process or in the distribution of wealth. The Sunni Army, police and Intelligence forces kept them in place until the forces of the United States destroyed the Iraqi Sunni Army and governing infrastructure in order to install a Western type parliamentary government. In the process we destroyed the balance of power between Iran and Iraq. We know how to fight and win battles. We do not know how to do the nation building required to force fit a western democracy type rule in a part of the world that has no history of democracy or foundation of Western values. Both Presidents Bush and Obama share the blame for the rise of ISIS in Iraq.

Back to Fallujah and facts on the ground. Iraq today is totally a Shiite nation. The ISIS movement is overwhelmingly Sunni and the Kurds are fighting to establish a Kurdistan nation. They will fight to resist any Iraqi Government that tries to subject Kurds to rule from Shiite Baghdad or a Sunni rule in any form, ISIS or not ISIS.

The real threat in the area is Shiite Iran who intends to end up incorporating all of Shiite Iraq and the Iraqi oil reserves. What forces are surrounding Fallujah in the current struggle? Yes! Iranian militias, another name for Iranian government trained and equipped troops, who intend to destroy all Sunni armed groups in the region that could threaten their takeover of Shiite Iraq including Baghdad and south to the Gulf. An Iraqi victory in Fallujah will be a victory for Iran.

US airpower and advisors will be fighting on the side of Shiite Iran against the wishes of our traditional Sunni allies and Israel who want ISIS destroyed but not at the emergence of a more powerful Iran. That is fine with our leadership. The President and his Administration are firmly in the Iranian group. Can there be any doubt after some of the details of the Iranian Nuclear Treaty which is not a treaty have leaked?

Some things cannot be put back in the box and this is one of them.

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Tagged as Barack Obama, Iran, iraq, ISIS, Middle East, military

by Barry Kelly | February 19, 2016 · 2:26 pm

INSIGHTS 251 WHO DO WE NEED?

Tomorrow we vote in South Caroline for the Republican candidate of our choice. There are several good choices. All are better than any Democrat running or thinking about running. But which candidate is right for the time.

President Obama with his socialist power down of the America’s economy and military to make us fit into some demented international scheme of income distribution, both between people and nations, will leave a giant mess behind as his legacy.

The economy is in a shambles, debt is nearly out of control, America’s best in the world medical system will soon be a thing of the past. Our military manpower and experience level has been eroded. Weapon systems are outdated and nothing new is being developed to upgrade them. Care of our Veterans is shameful. No one is responsible and no one is accountable for the disgrace. The civil service is politicalized. It is no longer an unofficial check on executive power abuse. Agencies and Departments of the government have grown beyond the need and have increased the scope of their charters. Probably the IRS is the worst. Followed by the EPA, HHS, Justice, and DHS.

We need someone who is a recognized problem solver and isn’t directed by some archaic inner ideology. A pragmatist is needed, not a politician. Our situation requires a president with enough brashness and ego to charge ahead and ignore the calls for political correctness, study, and endless debate. Of all the candidates, I believe only Mr. Trump fills that bill. He is not the smartest or the most knowledgeable in foreign policy but I think his credentials as a deal maker are tailored made for the mess the progressive regime of Obama and company have crafted over the last seven years. In other times I would be supporting Mrs. Fiorina and Senator Rubio. They are truly the smartest and most knowledgeable regarding foreign policy and military affairs. But our need is more critical. The progressive china must be broken and quickly. America can be made great again.