Category Archives: foreign policy

by Barry Kelly | October 1, 2015 · 7:43 am

INSIGHTS 234 — RUSSIAN EMPIRE MOVES INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN

“Mr. President, I want to read something you said last week when I asked, ‘Are you using the leading from behind strategy in the Middle East and primarily in Syria?’ And you answered, ‘Of course. My objective is to change or transform the world order. How could I do that if I was openly leading the action? I’m leading from behind. Iran, ISIS, and Russia are doing exactly what I want. If Russia ends up being a power in the Middle East with warm water ports for their warships and control of oil from the region won’t that end the strife and lead to a world society where the people will be much better off and the world’s wealth and resources will be more equitably distributed?

“‘Russia will have what they have always wanted. They have no desire to occupy Europe. The balance of world power will be forever changed for the better. The need for vast military expenditures will be gone. Colonialism, capitalism, and imperialism will be history. Those are the real evil “isms” of our world. Progressivism is the natural ideology for a world of equals.’”

“Given the very aggressive move by Putin into Syria in the last two weeks with his demand that U.S. aircraft no longer fly over Syria, will you need to change your approach?”

“Putin is following a long developed strategy followed by all the czars. He is the first to succeed in actually establishing a growing military presence in the Middle East. The Russian fleet will now have an all-weather sea port for their warships. He will be popular at home for a short time. Then the people will find out what it costs them to sponsor another client state. Control of Iraqi oil fields may provide some funds for Putin’s military build up and support for a bankrupt Syria but that will not be enough.

“He will soon have another Afghanistan on his hands. Remember how they moved into Afghanistan unopposed in President’s Carter’s one term? He was surprised. I am not. This a perfect response from Putin who is unknowingly assisting me in changing the current world order. Whether he stays for a decade or more in Syria, the Middle East will never be the same. The Christian, imperialistic, capitalistic western power will be balanced by the growing power of the Islamic nations who actually live in the Middle East. Those people will be governing themselves and using their wealth and intellectual resources for the good of a previously oppressed people.

“My concern is keeping the right wing ideologues from convincing my successor to oppose the Russian push into Syria. No matter what Putin does, I will not respond with American power. In a few more years American power both military and economically will be gone for good.”

“What about all the death and misery being inflicted on the people of Syria and Iraq?”

“It will pass in less than a decade. People always suffer when the tide of historical power shifts against existing rulers. Spreading Muslim people throughout the Christian world through chaotic refugee flows is not a bad thing. The shift in population demographics will actually act as a catalyst for a more rapid transformation in the Western world. I couldn’t be happier. Progress never takes place without chaos. The more chaos, the more rapid the pace of transformation can be.”

“Does anyone in your administration share your view of the world?”

“Really only one and she is constantly encouraging me to move more quickly. A few others think they know but they don’t. Their thinking is still mired down in the Western approach of looking at governing as the constant solving of issues. As long as they stay out of the way, they do no harm in playing with transient problems that have no solution without transformation.”

“Mr. President, I think I’m safe in saying no other president has ever shared your view of America and the world.”

“I agree. See you next week. You are the only person I can truthfully talk to besides my co-partner in transformation. Good night.”

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Afghanistan, Barry Kelly, Capitalism, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Middle East, Obama, oil, political solutions, Politics, Progressives, Putin, Russia

Tagged as current-events, Immigration, iraq, Islam, Middle East, military, Syria, transformation

by Barry Kelly | September 17, 2015 · 3:33 pm

INSIGHTS 231 LEADING FROM BEHIND STRATEGY

While the President and the Advisor were engaging in a few moments of chatting about things that don’t matter, the Advisor wondered if he should ask the President a question he had had for a long time but was reluctant to bring it up. Finally he decided to be bold and ask. “Mr. President, you have used the term, ‘leading from behind’ in talking about foreign affairs. Just what does that mean and how do you use it?”

The President looked at the Advisor and said, “It is the core principle behind all my decisions. Under other Presidents this nation and the world has not fared well by the use of American military and economic power. How much better things might have been if they had been willing to exercise patience and let others advance their policy positions? You know the term came from Saul Alinsky. He used that strategy constantly when he was a community organizer in Chicago. I think it is a brilliant strategy. He would pick a subject he felt was important and work slowly behind the scenes to encourage others to adopt his ideas and take action to accomplish what needed to be done. If things didn’t go well, it wasn’t his fault, and he could quietly work to put his issues back on track. Often a breakthrough would occur that he hadn’t foreseen. And that was good. It indicated the value of harnessing the minds and energies of others to accomplish your objectives. At times he would pick the other side of the issue if the Progressives could use it to damage the opposition and clear the way for more ‘leading from behind’ probing.”

“What happens if the policy fails due to lack to leadership and direction?”

“If the strategy of leading from behind on an issue fails to advance Progressive goals it is because the people failed to understand the issue or were not adaptable enough in picking the tactics. It is difficult for the opposition to defeat Progressive ideology and actions because it appears as if the movement has no single leader. And that is correct. Leading from the front often results in failure and the loss of leaders. In my way the leadership cadre is very broad and if the leaders among the people are adaptable enough to change messages and positions, the deep leadership ranks are protected even when the effort seems to fail. Failure is rare because even if an effort is defeated by our opponents, we have been able to dictate the agenda and make some small gains and that is all we need to do to complete our transformation process.”

“Are you using the leading from behind strategy in the Middle East and primarily in Syria?”

“Of course. My objective is to change or transform the world order. How could I do that if I was openly leading the action? I’m leading from behind. Iran, ISIS, and Russia are doing exactly what I want. If Russia ends up being a power in the Middle East with warm water ports for their warships and control of oil from the region won’t that end the strife and lead to a world society where the people will be much better off and the world’s wealth and resources will be more equitably distributed? Russia will have what they have always wanted. They have no desire to occupy Europe. The balance of world power will be forever changed for the better. The need for vast military expenditures will be gone. Colonialism, Capitalism, and Imperialism will be history. Those are the real evil ‘isms’ of our world. Progressivism is the natural ideology for a world of equals.”

“Mr. President, I’m astounded at the breath of your response to my question. Do the leaders of your Administration share this view of the world?”

“Very, Very few. And that is good. Most of them would be more than astounded. They waste their time trying to either solve or pretend to solve the issues of governing. I only need a few people. The rest can mill about on trivial battlefields, as long as they do what they are told. Okay, I really have to go. Keep the questions coming. You help to keep me sharp. Goodnight.”

“Goodnight Mr. President.”

The Advisor put his head down on the table and thought if you can’t handle the answer, don’t ask the question.

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80

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Filed under Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Middle East, Obama, political solutions

by Barry Kelly | September 3, 2015 · 7:02 am

INSIGHTS 228 — GETTING READY TO TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY

The Advisor was lost in thought, in between talks from his only visitor, the President.

The President has been so candid recently. I have to get ready to ask him some more challenging questions. I think he enjoys the challenge. He’s got to be immersed in the current economic crisis so I’ll start getting my background material ready. Many Americans do not see the economy, the process of making and selling things, as being different from the stock market. But they are two very different areas. While one affects the other to some degree, it is very difficult for experts to agree on the exact cause and effect of changes in the stock market. Economists talk knowingly about the state of the economy and what is needed to improve its performance. But in reality they should be called political economists because their analysis depends on whether they are supply-side economists or Keynesian economists.

The President’s progressive wing of the Democratic Party is nearly exclusively Keynesian. Those people believe the level and management of government spending is the key to growing the economy. The opposing side of free market/supply side economists believe growth can only come through the capitalist process of making and selling products outside the governing process. The fewer the regulations and the lower the taxes, the more the economy is free to grow. In their minds, a growth rate of between 4 percent and 8 percent is ideal with a tax rate on corporations around 15 percent.

The Keynesian monetary policies have never worked anywhere, though they were tried extensively during the Roosevelt era. Since government spending on sectors such as infrastructure can only be financed from taxes from people and corporations, Keynesian management of the economy inhibits the growth that is necessary to finance needed infrastructure, human services, and the military. Most everyone is in favor of these items but only the progressives with their Keynesian finance managers believe spending on social welfare and infrastructure stimulate the economy to grow. The first place they look for money for social services and infrastructure is the military budget. Few progressives believe in maintaining a strong military. I must remember to ask the President about his views on Keynesian economics.

Regardless of the financial philosophy, effectiveness of the process must be based on a real reporting and understanding of the facts. When the administration and talking heads go on about the well-being of the economy, they are mostly talking about the stock market that has done very well. Indeed it should with the Federal Reserve printing $86,000,000,000 per month for a program called Qualitative Easing. This level of printing money went on for many months. If you could afford to invest, you did well. The President’s program, instead of distributing wealth to narrow the gap in income between economic classes, actually widened the gap. Turning from the stock market to the business of making and selling things, the real economy, you see a much different picture. Real unemployment is closer to 12 percent than the 5 percent the progressives claim. Employment participation rates are lower than at any time since the 1970s. There are more people on food stamps and welfare now than ever before and that is not just due to the growth in population. Health care costs are growing. Wages are stagnant. Graduating college students cannot find jobs. Student debt is way up. People have given up looking for non-existent jobs. The economy is way below the growth rate needed to sustain services and our national debt. The only measureable that is up is the number of people on welfare. I wonder what the President will say about his commitment to the redistribution of wealth.

The last area to ask him about will be the energy sector. I wonder what he’ll say about the Saudi’s program of pumping oil at a level that is continuing to increase the glut of crude on the market today. Doesn’t he realize the Saudis dumping oil on the energy market is motivated by their need to remain the predominated supplier of the worlds oil and to weaken Iran, Iraq, ISIS, Russia, and the United States? Their strategy is working. Many oil drillers in the United States are gone. They and others like them around the world cannot profitably sell oil much below $60 or $70. Unless the Saudis change their strategy, the current glut of oil may be with us for a few more years.

The Advisor stopped his pacing and his thought process.

I think that is enough for more than one session with the President, he thought, feeling more prepared.

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Capitalism, class warfare, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, financial policies, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Obama, oil, political solutions, Progressives, Russia, Saudia Arabia

Tagged as economy, free market, government, keynesian economics, Progressives, qualitative easy, socialism, supply side economics

by Barry Kelly | August 7, 2015 · 10:59 pm

INSIGHTS 221 — THE ADVISOR ASKS WHAT MADE YOU DO IT.

The Advisor thought finally the President and I are getting comfortable talking about real issues. He has loosened up in the last few sessions. He knows I’m no threat and I won’t betray his candid responses to my questions. Hope he is in a talkative mood tonight. He should be here in another few minutes. I think he makes a real effort to be more or less on time and I appreciated it. He glanced up at the passageway monitor and saw the President and Chris approaching his door. Funny he has never commented on the wording on the old brass plaque. Even I don’t know its background. Maybe it is contained somewhere in the early journals. The only was to search them is to go thru them one by one. I just don’t have the time for that.

“Welcome Mr. President. Have you had a good day?”

“Can’t remember when. Everyday I get several problems that should never reach the Oval Office. I don’t know if some of my staff are afraid or just too limited to handle the problems on their own. The problems, or rather issues, that I handle always get some bad press. Fortunately I have very few consistent critics in the media. Some of them have gone out of their way to be supportive. Okay, you have some questions for me?”

“Yes I do Mr. President. Some of them are not important in the writing of history but I want to ask you why you did certain things that even your supporters do not seem to understand. My first questions is, why have you spent so much energy and time on closing Guantanamo Bay?”

“Well, the first thing is that I made a campaign promise to close this sore spot on our international record as a freedom loving nation. Gitmo is a prison and a place of torture. Students of international law believe it is a place that has no place in the twenty-first century. We can detain criminals in prisons in the Continental United States where my Attorney-General can protect their rights, examine the evidence, and bring them to trial under the American system of justice.”

“But, surely, there are cases when it would be appropriate to detain and try terrorist prisoners captured on the field of battle?”

“I just don’t trust the military to run trials of our enemies. Their rules of evidence, procedure, and concern for the rights of the accused do not meet my standards. I want America to look toward my leadership in prosecuting criminals, not the Pentagon.”

“We have both studied the law, both constitutional and international. Don’t you see the impossibility of collecting evidence, taking statements from witnesses and yet following the strict rules required by our courts regarding the chain of accountability and custody of evidence from the crime scene to the court room?”

“If we can’t get a conviction on the main charges, we’ll have to settle for prosecuting them for lesser crimes. If the military can’t or won’t meet the standards of American justice, they shouldn’t be conducting trials or detaining prisoners for years without charging and trying them.”

“Mr. President, there must be more than that.”

“Yes, in this room there is one more big one. Gitmo is a wonderful issue for me to use campaigning to attack conservatives. My base loves this issue. Elections are not won on facts. They are won by picking good issues and building them into major points. The time the conservatives spend defending Gitmo means they are playing by my rules and they can’t win. Take the Bergdorf guy who deserted his post and was held by the Taliban for years. He wasn’t important to anything, but he gave me a perfect opportunity to get five more top terrorists out of Gitmo. There was no other way I could justify their release. Who could argue sending those five criminals to one of the Gulf States for safe keeping. Who cares where they end up? Sorry I can’t continue but I must go. Thank you for the coffee and conversation. They were both good.”

As the steel door closed, the Advisor thought if you don’t want the answer, don’t ask the question. This may have been one of those times. Absolutely scary. No one would believe what I just heard. Especially since his words had the ring of truth. Get ready for an Executive Order to give Guantanamo Bay to the Castro’s.

The above is a fictional account of a meeting that never took place, but it could have.

The author’s latest Jack Brandon novel, ISIS Quiet Justice, is available at your local book store and in ebook format from Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble. Follow the author on Twitter at @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Alinsky, Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, General, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, political solutions, Politics, Terrorism

by Barry Kelly | July 21, 2015 · 7:14 am

INSIGHTS 218 THE ADVISOR’S TURN

The Advisor thought back to the last time the ancient vault door had opened to the president’s touch. I was very hard on the president, he thought. I’m supposed to be his confidant and even his helper. I’ve failed in those regards. Perhaps more than any of my esteemed predecessors. They all had problems. Presidents are not easy to work with. But how can I help him if he listens but never takes my advice? I swear at times I think he comes here as if he was a Catholic going to confessional. It’s not something he likes but he believes he must do it. I feel for his above-ground advisors. He is not a happy president. I’ll step back today if I get the right opening.

The Advisor glanced up at one of his many screens and saw the President was approaching his door. He checked to make sure the coffee was ready and the ashtray was on the table, then walked over to the door as Chris, the President’s constant Secret Service companion, swung open the door for his commander-in-chief.

“Mr. President, come in please,” the Advisor said, smiling. “I look forward to your visits. I seldom get a chance to talk about important issues. When you’re here, that’s my only chance.” The two men sat down in their usual seats and the President lit a cigarette. “If you don’t mind, Mr. President, I’d like to ask you why you come to see me.”

The President smiled and took a drag. “Sometimes I ask myself the same question.” He blew out a puff of smoke before answering. “I come down here because among all the people I meet with, you’re the only one who tells me exactly what you believe. You have no political or personal agenda and frankly you are much smarter than the others and you never leak information that either helps or hurts me. So the time I spend with you is like playing political chess. You give me a safe opportunity to sharpen my messaging skills. Now please, continue with your stream of criticism. I’m ready.” The President sat back in his chair, a sly grin on his face, and took another drag from his cigarette.

“Well, you must be feeling good. You’ve had a number of victories recently. So let me begin with you successful negotiations with Iran. Your citizens are nearly all bewildered. Some of the political lemmings take the sound bites and pass them on. I found it interesting that the conservative wing of America is comfortable debating substance while the further left you go, the less willing people are to debate issues. Instead, they attack the messengers and not the message they carry. So your Congressional power base, with a few exceptions, will not argue with the tenets of the Iranian agreement. They will focus on attacking the debaters. You have brilliantly given them the ideal message: ‘There was no other option. Either this agreement or war.’ As simplistic as that defense is, it is working and will continue to work. You know, as the intellectual you can be, that there were and are scores of different approaches. By going to the United Nations with the lifting of sanctions on nuclear activity as well as lifting embargoes on conventional weapons, you have made Congress irrelevant. Your progressive message in the election period can now paint the Republicans as being anxious to go to war with Iran rather than giving diplomacy a chance.

“Here again the left will be attacking the anti-Iran agreement people and not debating the agreement issues. Therefore you have already used the issue and now have a winning strategy.”

The President smiled, ground out his cigarette and said, ” You are too smart. I’m thankful you’re buried in this underground chamber with your unique political insights. I don’t mind this. I’ll give you more time. It’s like being in a safe time warp.”

The above is a fictional account of a meeting that never took place, but it could have.

The author’s latest Jack Brandon novel, ISIS Quiet Justice, is available at your local book store and in ebook format from Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble. Follow the author on Twitter at @factsfictions80.