Category Archives: foreign policy

by Barry Kelly | May 27, 2015 · 7:48 am

INSIGHTS 208 — THE ADVISOR CORRECTS A FALSE NARRATIVE

During one of the long intervals between presidential visits to The Advisor’s underground office, the Advisor thought to himself: if no one else will get history right and correct the false narratives circulating from the White House and the liberal press, my journals and my Facebook account will contain a clear report of what was happening during my term as the Advisor.

The Bush regime won the war but paved the way for a failed Iraqi government when they destroyed the Iraqi army and the Bath party of Saddam Hussein. None of the existing infrastructure every government needs was left. To make matters worse, the Advisor thought, shaking his head, the Bush administration failed to understand a Shiite/al-Maliki government would never be a check to the Shiite nation of Iran. Instead, the Iranians ended up owning Maliki who preceded to further weaken the Sunnis and the Kurds. For all the American blood and treasure the Bush administration spent in Iraq, little was left for Obama to work with, especially given his primary motive to get out of Iraq as quickly as possible. I doubt President Obama, or either of his inept secretaries of state, ever saw the real geo-political problem a Maliki government would cause. You would think that President Obama, who leans hard in the direction of supporting Sunni Muslims, would have recognized the growth and consequences of Shiite power in Iraq. “Some would argue that he didn’t care about Iraq, his sights were set on using Iran to transform the traditional world order in the Middle East,” he said aloud to no one. “And I am one of them.”

The Advisor sat down at his desk and continued musing. You didn’t need timely intelligence, which Obama claims he never received, to see the Sunni Islamic radicals that joined the rebellion against Syrian Shiite President Assad could easily cross the border into Sunni areas of Iraq. The Sunni tribes alienated by Maliki were ready to provide support in the form of manpower, logistics, weapons, and money. Borders mean nothing if they are not defended.

The result of the ISIS invasion of Iraq is that tribal and religious areas no longer follow the lines drawn by western diplomats after World War I. All remnants of the Shiite/Maliki government are being forced to fall back into Shiite populated areas, primarily south of Baghdad. A realistic map of Iraq will soon show Sunniland, Kurdistan and Shiiteland. The Sunnis and the Kurds will never go back into a centralized Shiite-run government. That failed experiment is over. Only more American blood and treasure could delay the collapse of Iraq, and for what? Our government needs to stop believing an Iraqi centralized government is possible. It is not.

Our policy should be to support the Kurds with modern weapons and monetary aid until their own fighters get properly equipped and to persuade the outside Sunni world to help bring the ISIS under some restraint. In the meantime, use unfettered air power and required boots-on-the-ground to break the advance of ISIS and stop their atrocities against the Christians and other religious groups ISIS is now slaughtering. Some massive evacuations of endangered refugees may be necessary. All because two administrations failed to see the Middle East as it is. Hawks and doves are equally to blame.

With this president’s commitment to Iran. I don’t believe he will allow his administration to support the Kurds or Sunnis in Iraq. They certainly have not sent needed supplies to the Kurds despite their statements to the contrary.

The Advisor sat in silence for a few moments before picking up his pen and putting his thoughts down on a fresh page in his journal.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and Kindle formats.This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 204 — The Advisor’s Core Facts of the Middle East

The Advisor had no trouble putting together the realities of the Middle East, but he spent extra time deciding how to present a picture that would not cause the president to walk out on him during his presentation. The president was intelligent but had a very thin skin for such an accomplished political campaigner. Perhaps, he thought, it is because the truth had no place on his campaign trails. On the campaign, the ends for him clearly justified whatever needed to be done or said to weaken the opposition. The president had taken on board the Saul Alinsky rules totally. The issue is never the issue is his guidance for all his policies and speeches. The man is remarkably consistent and, for his followers, he is brilliant. He can avoid and ignore issues that any previous president would have believed he had to take on.

As he mused over his dilemma, the Advisor worked to stay within his historic guidelines. He had to advise his president to the best of his ability. The fact that he thought this president was clearly focused on destroying the political and economic structure he inherited was a problem, for his responsibility was to advise the president in his role to protect and improve the life of its citizens. If he could be just a little dishonest, he could rationalize that the president wanted to improve America. But in the process of socialization, great harm would be done. Freedom and the ability to rise above the norm would be lost as long as socialism, communism, or progressivism prevailed. He just couldn’t, or more honestly, wouldn’t follow that path.

At that moment, the Advisor’s only phone rang, with the only person he ever spoke to, outside the president, on the other line. Chris Hammond, the chief of the President’s Secret Service detail, said the president would late, somewhere near midnight. Good, he thought, that will give me time for a nap, a shower, and a frozen Indian curry dinner.

It was almost midnight when the Advisor put on a fresh pot of Sumatra dark roast. He was just getting ready to pour himself a cup when the faint alarm sounded and the president entered.

“Welcome, Mr. President. You must be able to smell fresh coffee brewing.”

The president chuckled. “When the coffee is as good as yours, I could smell it for miles, even when it is coming from an underground cave. Your existence is even more constrained than mine. I suspect you have learned to take pleasure in small things.”

“Yes, I have. That is very perceptive of you. There doesn’t seem to be much instant gratification in your life.”

“No, there isn’t. And I think I won’t get much in the next hour or so. Shall we begin? Surprise me.” The president sat back in his seat at the conference table, a cigarette already between his fingers.

“First, some basics. You know most of these but they are important in any discussion of the Middle East, no matter the subject. The people of the Middle East have a past they are proud of and a present they are not. Tribal allegiance is still a very important factor. Mobility up the social chain is much harder than it is in America where education is the key to improved status. In the Middle East it is religion and revolution. For reasons beyond my understanding Asian and Middle Eastern people have a very long and usually patient view of the time/progress ratio. Americans are only comfortable with instant gratification plus a decade.

“Then, there is the history of religious wars and colonialism when troops from the West with superior weapons and technology subjugated people of the Middle East and attempted to impose Western culture and even religion in the conquered areas. As a result the people of this historic crossroad both admire and hate the West with its superior technology.

“After World War I, diplomats from the West drew national boundaries that failed to consider tribal loyalties, religious affiliations, and the hunger of people for their own homeland. The situation of present-day Kurds is an example. The destruction of Saddam Hussain’s Iraqi ’empire’ created a vacuum that the Iranians are filling after noting the West had abandoned the region.

“Iran is the dominant single nation in the Middle East today. For decades, they have been working to take control of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen by creating and funding Shiite terrorists groups in all these nations. The West has been ineffective in thwarting the Iranian drive to hegemony in the Middle East. Now the Iranians want to solidify their gains and they need to be a nuclear power to do so. Unless they are presented with strong military and economic resistance, they will not be deterred in achieving nuclear status with an ICBM capability. They cannot be trusted to honor any agreement or treaty that stands in the way. Nor will they stop the funding and equipping of proxy terrorist organization to further their dominance of the Middle East. Nothing in Iran will change for the better in Western terms without a regime change. I know you have other reasons for negotiating with the Ayatollahs but there will be a terrible price to pay in human terms.”

The president sat still for a moment, then took a final drag on his cigarette before grinding it down on the table. “There were some surprises but you gave the speech I expected. I have to go, but this is interesting. I’ll give my response at one of our next meetings.” He left without another word or without a look back, per usual.

The Advisor found himself already impatient to hear the president’s response.

The above is a fictional account of a president meeting with a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 200 — THE BIG LIE

In the late 1930s and early 1940s the Nazi propaganda chief, Goebbels, coined the phrase, “The Big Lie.” I’m sure the concept wasn’t original with him, but the Nazis used it consistently in their propaganda. The essence of the idea is that if you tell a big lie often enough, people will gradually come to believe it.

I can take the theory even further. If you tell the same lie often and with conviction, you will believe your own lie.

Conservatives and traditional Democrats have their image issues, but it is nothing like the progressive radical left that is now running the country. Progressives believe from deep in their DNA that the end justifies the means as long as the intent is to overthrow and replace the current political structure. Saul Alinsky, the brilliant guru of the progressives, explains this issue in his books. Reading his “Rules for Radical” is enlightening. Both President Obama and Hillary Clinton are Alinsky disciples. Hillary Clinton had a personal as well as an intellectual relationship with Alinsky. Conservatives tend to avoid the consistent use of lies as their core culture values the integrity of the spoken word.

A clear and recent example of the progressive use of the big lie by a leading progressive is Harry Reid’s statement as the Senate Majority Leader in which he charged presidential candidate Mitt Romney with not paying his taxes. When confronted with this big lie, Reid said, “He didn’t get elected, did he?”

An even more famous example is President Obama saying repeatedly that, “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.” He said the same thing regarding your health care insurance, i.e. “If you like your insurance you can keep your insurance.” He knew all the while that neither statement was true, but the end justified the means in his mind. He delivered these lies with such conviction, I believe he actually believed he was telling the truth.

Below is a partial list of current big lies being supported by our progressive president and his followers:

AL-QAEDA IS ON THE RUN;
THE ATTACK ON BENGHAZI WAS THE RESULT OF ANTI-ISLAM VIDEO PRODUCED IN AMERICA;
WE WILL TRACK THE ATTACKERS DOWN AND BRING THEM TO JUSTICE;
ISIS, AL-QAEDA, AND ALL THEIR OFFSHOOT TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS ARE NOT PART OF OR MOTIVATED BY ISLAM;
THE ECONOMY IS GOOD AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS DOWN;
COUNTER-TERRORIST POLICES IN YEMEN AND ETHIOPIA HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL;
PUTIN’S POLICIES WILL LEAD TO RUSSIA BEING ISOLATED BY THE CIVILIZED WORLD;
MY ADMINISTRATION WILL FOLLOW ALL POSSIBLE PATHS TO ENERGY SUFFICIENCY IN AMERICA;
BUILDING THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE WILL NOT CREATE MANY FULL-TIME JOBS;
CREATING NEW JOBS IS OUR NUMBER ONE PRIORITY;
OUR NEGOTIATED DEAL WITH IRAN IS THE BEST WAY TO PREVENT THEM FROM DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND STOP THEIR SPONSORSHIP OF TERRORISM THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST;
CARE OF OUR VETERANS HAS IMPROVED;
POLICE PROFILING AND TARGETING OF BLACKS IS THE CAUSE OF URBAN RACIAL VIOLENCE;
INCREASED GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON INFRASTRUCTURE, RESEARCH, AND EDUCATION WILL CREATE ECONOMIC GROWTH;
THE COLD WAR POLICIES OF PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH NO LONGER WORK. WE NEED A NEW WORLD ORDER;
THE BIGGEST THREAT TO OUR CIVILIZATION IS GLOBAL WARMING;
THE ROOT CAUSE OF PROBLEMS IN THE WORLD IS THE RESULT OF AMERICAN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC POWER OF THE PAST.

This last big lie explains most of Obama’s policies and actions. He really is a man who is mentally and psychologically from a different era. He believes his legacy will be the progress he has made in the transformation of America and in changing the current world order. To accomplish this task he must first destroy the America he was elected to defend and protect and then, to destroy enough of the old world order to allow the ensuing chaos to give birth to the emergence of a fairer national and international society devoid of any super powers and replaced by a revitalized United Nations.

“ISIS Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats.

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Filed under Alinsky, Barry Kelly, Clinton, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, ISIS, Obama

Tagged as big lie, Obama, Progressives, Saul Alinsky

by Barry Kelly | April 14, 2015 · 7:36 am

INSIGHTS 199 — A WORD TO LIBERALS

I think I know how to talk to a liberal because I once was one.

Of course, that was before the progressives took over the Democratic Party and moved it so far left it would be right at home in Russia, China, or Cuba. No, it is not repressive enough yet for those bastions of central planning and re-education camps. But unless the more centralist members of the party retake control, a one-party system with increasing repression is coming.

I left the Democratic Party because I saw their fixation on the application of Keynesian economics was just not working and it doesn’t take years of pondering to see that growing the size and scope of government beyond absolute needs doesn’t in itself solve problems. Many times it only makes things worse by drafting and implementing more and more regulations.

It is not only the Democrats that grow government. There are big government Republicans who are just as culpable in the increasing size and scope of government. Two of the worse examples occurred with a Republican White House.

After Sept. 11, 2001, President Bush created two large and, I believe, nearly useless bureaucracies: the Department Of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Everyone was in shock over 9/11 and were making frantic efforts to fix whatever problems prevented us from thwarting this historical terrorist event. It is in our DNA to centralize anything at the slightest opportunity. When things go wrong, “Put someone in charge.” Is the cry that echoes across the land. The fact is that someone was already in charge but didn’t make the right choices or put their own agency’s interests over that of the nation. Replacing these people and changing the bureaucratic nature of their organization was what should have been done. We should not have put many diverse organizations that were already on the edge of being nearly unmanageable due to size and complexity under a single new manager. Adding layers of management seldom has improved anything.

Big government and its sister, centralization, is at the core of all socialist systems. Republicans and Democrats are both at fault. I can’t blame the Progressives for growing and centralizing the size and scope of government. It is what they do. It is their mantra. Leaving the Saul Alinsky followers and other Progressives aside under leaders like President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Elizabeth Warren, it might be possible for traditional Democrats and Republicans to have real discussions.

I believe a starting point for dialogue to save our country is to use the following principles as a foundation for cooperation:

Honesty and openness in the conduct of government;
Peace comes through the prudent use and display of strength;
A foreign policy that is loyal to our allies and respected by our enemies;
A recognition that freedom is not free;
We are an exceptional nation based on the rule of law;
Tax rich more than others, but everyone pays something in some way;
Corruption has no place in our government or in our economy;
The civil service must not be political and public workers should not organize against the people;
We can be judged on how we treat our children, the sick, the poor, the elderly, and our veterans;
A nonpartisan and objective media is a necessary part of our democracy;
We are a nation of immigrants and will always welcome newcomers who obey our laws and learn our language, history, and culture.

“ISIS Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats.

INSIGHTS 195 — PICKING A CANDIDATE

Picking a candidate to replace President Obama should be easy. Just about anyone would be an improvement if they are a moderate Democrat or a small government Republican. At this point I like Governor Scott Walker and former democratic senator Jim Webb. They, along with some other candidates, share many of my list of what America needs after Obama.

My list is simple:

REDUCE THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF GOVERNMENT;
ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO GROW AND CREATE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES;
BUILD THE PIPELINE;
REDO THE TAX CODE;
RE-ESTABLISH OUR FORMER MILITARY POWER, INCLUDING NATO;
RECOGNIZE IRAN AND PUTIN AS BEING REAL THREATS TO WORLD PEACE;
CONDUCT A REAL WAR ON ISLAMIC RADICAL JIHADISTS;
STAND WITH OUR SUNNI ARAB ALLIES, KURDS, AND ISRAEL IN THE MIDDLE EAST;
CANCEL MOST OF OBAMA’S EXECUTIVE ORDERS AND AGENCY-ISSUED REGULATIONS;
REPLACE MOST OF OBAMACARE WITH A PRIVATE SECTOR PATIENT/DOCTOR PLAN;
ACHIEVE A BALANCED BUDGET PROCESS IN FOUR YEARS;
BUILD BACK CITIZENS’ TRUST IN GOVERNMENT;
SPEAK THE TRUTH TO THE PEOPLE;
TAKE CARE OF OUR VETERANS; AND
NEVER USE THE FOLLOWING WORDS OR PHRASES: FAIR SHARE, SAVE THE MIDDLE CLASS, LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD, A NATION OF COWARDS ABOUT RACE, TRANSFORM AMERICA, EVERYONE PAYING A FAIR SHARE, CARBON TAX, WORKPLACE VIOLENCE, WAR ON COAL, DANGERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, LEAD FROM BEHIND, DEPEND ON THE U.N., WAR ON WOMEN, AND I DID, MY ADMINISTRATION, I HAVE A PEN AND PHONE.

Use this list to evaluate your candidate and see how they score. In a coming blog I will talk about some individual candidates.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $3.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “ISIS,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, will be out in March or early April.