Category Archives: foreign policy

by Barry Kelly | February 10, 2015 · 7:32 am

INSIGHTS 188 — GET OUT OF THE IRAQI BOX

If we had a non-ideologue who was also competent in world affairs as a president and a Congress that could forget about itself and get on with passing legislation the nation needs, then the mess in the Middle East would not be so hard to solve.

The problem is that it requires thinking outside the box and that means hitting the reset button on traditional beliefs. For one, policymakers must forget about Iraq being a nation. It never really was. It is just what some Western diplomats called the space between the lines they drew when the Turkmen Empire fell after World War I. There are three very large groups of people in the space labeled Iraq. Sunni tribes, Shiite tribes, and the Kurdish people.

Their customs, language, and religious beliefs are different. For the only time he was ever right, in my estimate, Vice President Joe Biden was right when he suggested during the height of the Iraq war that there were really three different groups in Iraq and each should have their own territory/nation. Of course, his timing was way off. Iraq could have continued as a nation if American forces backed up the Shiite-dominated government, but that was only a temporary fix. Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds are never going to live in the same tent without some power forcing them to do so.

The solution to the ISIS problem is for America to recognize reality. That means paying no attention to the State Department or other so-called bookish Middle Eastern pundits. The Kurds have no use for ISIS. Send them the arms they need, which, despite the Obama talk, we have never done, and the Kurds will fight. They don’t need great numbers of America’s soldiers, just some Special Forces and air support. Kurdistan has been a Kurdish dream for more than 100 years. We aren’t sending them the arms they need and want because Iran wouldn’t like that. Obama wants a deal with Iran so badly, he is willing to let the foes of ISIS be denied the freedom of living under a government of their own people. Turkey also doesn’t want to see us arm the Kurds, but the establishment of Kurdistan would reduce Kurdish attacks on Turkish territory and may bring them around, especially if we really support the anti-Assad forces in Syria.

Many of the Sunni tribes in Iraq would break clear of any support to ISIS, if they were confident the end game would give them their own land and their own national identity. They, too, will fight. They supported our forces by siding with America against al-Qaeda. In simple terms, that takes care of Iraq from Baghdad north with a few adjustments. Different lines on the map.

Remember, there is a past history of lines drawn. This time the lines would coincide with linguistic, ethnicities, and religious beliefs. The Shiites would have the area south of Baghdad where the majority of their people and religious shrines abide. Distribution of oil revenues can be done but it will be a bit sticky and may require a multi-national solution.

Iran won’t like this approach and neither will the Obama administration. Israel would support this approach as long as the United States kept Iran’s ayatollahs from annexing part of current Iraq as Putin has done in Ukraine. The only hurdles standing in the way of such a comprehensive solution is Obama’s infatuation with the Iranians and old world thinking in the State Department and Pentagon. The big upside is that Muslims would be taking care of their radical Islamic extremists with a minimum of American blood and treasure.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “Quiet Justice” a new novel dealing with ISIS in America will be out by early March.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, ISIS, Israel, Kurds, Obama, oil, political solutions, Putin, Shiite, Sunni, Terrorism

by Barry Kelly | January 22, 2015 · 7:42 am

INSIGHTS 185 — DANGEROUS DELUSIONS ( A response to the State of the Union)

As President Obama faced the audience for his State of the Union address, did he note that there were 80-plus more Republicans in the seats than there were when he took office? The change was one of historical significance. I don’t think he noticed.

But maybe he just doesn’t care. His attitude varied between confidence and arrogance. It takes real chutzpah to threaten vetoes and more of the same progressive programs when operating from a weakened presidency. He won’t work to solve any of the nation’s problems or issues because that is not what he does nor has he ever. Issues are to be used to destroy the opposition and bring about the progressive transformation of America.

This president believes that the American people are really dumb. Who is a better judge of how the economy is going, a man who isolates himself from reality or everyday people who have to struggle to pay their bills and plan to take care of their families? The administration’s unemployment figures are useful only if you are trying to deceive people. Wages have been stagnant for years. No matter what the progressives preach, wages do not improve until employers are competing among each other for workers. Increasing the minimum wage increases the cost of doing business — it does not create jobs. In fact, employers struggling to save their businesses often lay workers off to pay the mandated higher wages for current workers.

Today there is not much workplace competition for college graduates. Maybe less than 50 percent of recent graduates have been offered jobs commensurate with their new skills. These young, ambitious graduates know the economy is still in trouble. Beside an increase in the minimum wage, Obama’s proposal to help the economy is to create more graduates by offering two free years at a community college. This proposal would actually make sense if done on the state level and produced workers needed in industries located in the state. The last thing American people need is more federal management of their personal and work lives. Let the states work with local business to create curricula that actually help graduates get jobs. This proposal, like all other progressive proposals, has at its core the re-distribution of wealth.

How can he complain about the failure of Congress to pass legislation when the majority leader in the Senate, Harry Reid, with the president’s approval, prevented hundreds of bills from reaching the Senate floor for debate and a subsequent vote? No bill was brought up for a vote unless it was one the president wanted to sign! This is not a secret. Only a president who lives in a different universe than we do could possibly believe Americans do not know the story about Harry Reid and his refusal to allow bills to reach the Senate floor.

A quick look at Obama’s foreign policy statements. He stated our military has stopped the expansion of ISIS. Simply not true. He said Russia is in economic trouble because of America’s quiet diplomacy at work. False. Russia is in trouble because it depends solely on the money from a single export product, oil. When Saudi Arabia opened up their oil pumps to glut the market and drive down the price of oil to damage their competitors, Russia, Iran, ISIS, Venezuela, and America, who cannot afford to sell oil at or below the Saudi price. Russia’s economic problem has nothing to do with anything Obama said or did.

Another delusion is that we are not at war with terrorism by Islamic jihadists. Islam is not a peaceful religion. Extremists can find approval for their actions in the Koran. As long as the millions of Muslims, living in peace with the West, do not check their extremists our commander-in-chief must recognize the predominate role Islam plays in worldwide terrorism. The president touts his success in combating “extremists” in Yemen at the same time U.S. warships are moving toward Yemen’s coastline to evacuate Americans.

Obama’s infatuation with climate change and its link to human activity is simply that, an infatuation with a scheme that would redistribute wealth on a global scene. Does anyone, besides the president, believe China will live up to its promise to reduce carbon emissions 15 years from now?

Even more troubling are his statements that negotiations now underway with Iran have stopped the Iranian drive to develop nuclear weapons. That would be wonderful if there was even a 20 percent chance of that being correct. But it is not. Iran’s leaders believe their national interest as a power in the Middle East and the world depends on them having a nuclear weapons capability. All they need is time and the bumbling negotiating team under Obama/Kerry are giving Iran the time. Obama vows he will veto any standby sanctions on Iran voted by Congress. Believing negotiations can stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons is is a dangerous delusion. A nuclear-capable Iran puts the world at more danger than at any time during the Cold War era. The next two years will be very hard on America and very dangerous to a leaderless world. Do we have to learn again that peace is found in strength not weak compromises and delusional ranting?

(If you’re interested, here is my response to another Obama State of the Union. Click here.)

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/mystery novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, complexity, Conservative views, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, ISIS, Obama, oil, Saudia Arabia, Terrorism

by Barry Kelly | January 9, 2015 · 8:16 am

INSIGHTS 183 — OBAMA’S WORLD VIEW, FANTASY OR REALITY?

America’s security is threatened by a president, an attorney general, and a Cabinet who do not believe Islam is waging a serious war on the West and American in particular.

The president, whose words and actions have clearly put him on the Islamic side of any issue, will not change his anti-west, anti-Israel position. You do not send the FBI, the courts, the Justice Department, or the Department of Homeland Security to the battlefield. You don’t mirandize terrorist prisoners. Instead you interrogate them and lock them up until reality tells us the war is over.

No president, especially this one, can declare unilaterally that the war is over. The president can withdraw America from the war, as he has done and is doing, but he cannot faithfully follow his oath to protect America by declaring the war is over. His words mean nothing on the actual state of affairs. Actions are the real determinants.

Releasing enemy combatants from Guantanamo Bay, trying enemy combatants in civil courts who, then have the full rights of American citizens is too absurd even for a fiction writer. The very necessary rules of gathering and presenting evidence, the right to confront your accusers, the right to counsel and judgement by your peers are the foundation of the American rule of law. They do not apply to enemy combatants captured by our armed forces in a combat environment.

They should be interrogated for timely and critical intelligence using enhanced methods of interrogation as required. We have done this in every war America has fought. Not this one, where the commander-in-chief won’t even say we are at war, will not acknowledge the enemy are Islamists, and whose rules of engagement further complicate the execution of the war by the very people whose entire lives have been devoted to preparing for and fighting America’s wars.

If you cannot identify your enemy, give enemy combatants the protection of our courts, and run the war out of the White House with people who have never been at war, one thing is certain, you will not win. We are not yet Europe, but moving that way. Prayer rugs may soon be on sale online from white house.fantasy/war.

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Filed under Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, ISIS, Israel, Obama, Obamacare, Politics, Terrorism

Tagged as government, Islam, Obama, politics

by Barry Kelly | October 1, 2014 · 7:30 am

INSIGHTS 160: FACTS ON THE GROUND

While the president and his administration are pointing fingers of blame at everyone and everything but themselves, let’s look at some ground truths.

The Obama administration could have had a Status of Forces of Agreement in Iraq to protect our troops from being charged, arrested, and tried in Iraqi courts. All that is required is for us to leave a mobile Army Division augmented by its supporting logistical units, air support, selected combat teams, and Special Forces in a U.S.-controlled base strategically located in Iraq. Prime Minister al-Maliki was in no position to follow his Iranian guidance and refuse. We could have replaced him. Sometimes the development of a new democracy needs a little forceful guidance.

When Obama pulled out all our troops, the training of the Iraqi Army with critical American combat support had reached a point where it could have defended Iraqi territory. Without American boots and eyes on the ground to detect and stop al-Maliki from critically weakening the Iraqi Army by replacing most Sunni and Kurdish officers with Shiite replacements, the Iraqi Army was no longer the force America trained. It had no chance against the ISIS invasion. al-Maliki’s leadership destroyed any faint hopes the Sunnis and Kurds had in sharing Iraq’s resources and having a real say in the governing of the country.

The powerful Sunni tribes that fought with U.S. forces to destroy al-Qaeda in Iraq are not going to fight to defend a corrupt Shiite government in Baghdad. Many of these Sunnis joined ISIS as the better choice for them. Some of the Sunnis trained by American forces may well be fighting with ISIS now. They only thing we can offer them to change sides is the promise of their own Sunni nation with no ties to a Shiite government located somewhere south of Baghdad.

The Kurds and their Peshmerga forces are good fighters. They will fight to the death to defend their people and their land. They will not defend the Shiite regime in Baghdad, no matter the name of the prime minister. For many decades, the Kurds have wanted control of their historical homeland. They have fought the Turks, Iranians, and Iraqis as far back as their oral history. American arms and supplies sent to the Kurds through Baghdad will never reach Kurdistan. Out of this chaos the Kurds are betting they have a good chance of winning their freedom. But they will need our help. Without assurances of a free Kurdistan, they will not fight ISIS forces very far from their own borders.

Iran is the biggest danger in the region. Their intent is to development nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. We don’t know when it will happen, only that it will. Probably during President Obama’s time in office. The mindset of the current Iranian Islamic autocracy is that when they have nuclear weapons, they will use them.

Here again, the president holds views that have no basis in reality. He even has a secretary of state who shares his view of peace through negotiations even when the other side only demands instead of negotiating. It is a one-sided negotiation. Iran doesn’t want ISIS on its doorstep but will not change its focus on the development of nuclear weapons. Iran does not want to be involved in a punishing ground war with ISIS. The Iraqi Shiites will be protected by Iran and become an Iranian puppet pseudo state.

The Obama administration could have prevented the ISIS crisis if it had been more interested in the reality of foreign affairs rather than using inaction to create a make-believe, no-fault-of-Obama’a world. Inaction led to pulling all our troops out of Iraq and turning victory into defeat. Inaction led to the civil war in Syria from spreading into Iraq. Either the Obama Administration did not know or ignored indications al-Maliki was destroying the fabric of the Iraqi nation by cutting the Sunnis and the Kurds out of their share of oil revenue and a voice in the running of the national government, creating a fertile environment for ISIS forces.

The rate of training 5,000 fighters a year in Saudi Arabia to serve as ground troops is not going to work. It creates the illusion of action but is not going to be effective. NATO countries and Sunni coalition members need to field a force of at least 20,000 combat troops, augmented by as many regional fighters as we can recruit, and declare all of Syria and Iraq as a no-fly zone for military aircraft. With the right approach the Sunni tribes we can cut them out of the ISIS recruitment pool and set up a Sunni government to rival ISIS. To do that, President Obama has to recognize the Baghdad government is over and to stop negotiating unimportant legalistic details with a government that will soon be fleeing south. He also needs to get over his anti-colonial hangups about the alleged misuse of America military power in foreign lands. It is not unusual to hear liberal Americans refer to our efforts in Iraq in the Bush years as the “occupation of Iraq.” This is the epitome of “hate America” thinking. We all deserve a better legacy than that espoused by progressives.

Written by the author of “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an ebook, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. If you think this message is important, please share it.

INSIGHTS 159: FLAWED VISION OR ANTI-U.S. AGENDA?

Normally when a president gives a speech to an international audience, the president and his staff carefully craft the message he is to deliver. The Obama White House is no different. They never miss a chance to get their message out. They are very good about keeping all their key members on the message.

What message was the president reading off his teleprompter this past week in front of his international audience? Was it that ISIS is a bad group that needs to be checked and all concerned nations should join him in the fight against ISIS? Sounds right. And he did ask for support.

The second message seemed to be that while these people are bad, they are not radical or extremist Islamists. In fact, he never used the words “radical Islamists.” He said America will never wage a war against Islam, going on to say there is no “them or us.” We have millions of Islamic members in America, he said, as if to say a war against Islam would be a war against our own people.

The president has a hard time with using words to describe terrorism inflicted on others by followers of Islam. Remember he and his attorney general still refer to the murdering of service members at Fort Hood by a self-avowed Islamist shouting “Allah Akbar” while firing into an unarmed group of service men and women as “work place violence.” The president and his attorney general have never used the Islamic label in any situation involving terrorism. (Hope the next attorney general can break this mold.) It is clear all Islamists are not terrorists but nearly all recent terrorism attacks have been done in the name of Islam by the terrorists. What is the problem with recognizing reality?

This president acts as if he doesn’t like America or its historical past. Does he really think the shooting of a black teenager in Ferguson, Missouri, is equal to the beheadings and murders of thousands of people judged to be unbelievers by ISIS? If not, why even raise the issue? The case in Ferguson is still under investigation and until the grand jury makes the evidence public, everyone, including our president and Eric Holder, should be quiet about the issue. It may not be exactly the way they would like it to be.

I suspect the president is so mired in the anti-colonial socialist past of his historical view that he has trouble seeing reality in some cases. Unfortunately, those cases sometimes involve national security. A lot of American blood and treasure have been spent by brave men and women to defend us from radical jihadists. How can we win the struggle against radical Islam if our leaders cannot even recognize the issue and call it by name? Your call: flawed vision or an anti-U.S. agenda?