Category Archives: Israel

by Barry Kelly | July 3, 2015 · 7:38 am

INSIGHTS 216 –ADVISOR/ NOT THE ADVICE THE PRESIDENT WANTED

The Advisor picked up where he was the last time the president came down to his underground chambers. He was surprised the president was back and wanted him to continue with his discussion of the advice he would offer to the person who succeeded him next year. He had to give the man full credit for coming back for more. They were settled at the conference table. The Advisor said, “Should I continue?”

“Yes. You’ve listened to my defense of my policies over the years, I can put up with some more of your ideas, however outdated and inappropriate for the modern era of internationalism and governments who serve to give the people what they want and deserve. It’s time the ‘haves’ paid their fair share. But go on, please; this is your time.”

“When you were elected, you inherited a very bad economic problem largely brought on by the so-called housing bubble. The housing bubble was directly caused by government intervention in the housing financial market in the form of government loan guarantee agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These two government agencies pushed bad loans into the housing loan business that eventually caused a recession. This was not totally a Democrat Party error. The Republican president lost or misplaced his veto pen. The resulting response was a financial policy that inhibited economic growth. Current federal regulations, the closing of local banks, and taxation levels are preventing the growth of small businesses. Dodd Frank is a terrible bill and needs to be phased out. It is causing local banks to close and leaving no place for small businesses to get loans. The Federal Reserve system has seen its time. It should be in an advisory role, not an executive role.

“America’s educational system is getting worse, not better. The people to blame are those people who have run our educational system for the last several decades. The national government has no business controlling education. They have made a mess out of the system that is in the hands of an entrenched union that no longer puts our children first. Their first priority is the growth and power of the union and the well-being of all teachers regardless of their ability. Let the states and local governments be responsible for educating their citizens and make school choice a reality for all parents.

“Civilian control of the military is a cherished part of our Republic but no president should be permitted to destroy the force that defends us all without a strong national debate. Cutting back our military to fit some anti-colonialist ideology and putting White House staff in control of the details of military operations is dangerous and has failed every administration that has tried it. Civilian control does not mean civilian management of military tactics.

“The conduct of foreign affairs requires a strong national negotiating team, led by a strong, respected president. Today, we don’t have negotiations. We have a system of gradual appeasement. Serious national security issues from the Middle East to Russia to China are being ignored. Foreign nations, including our allies, have no respect for our word. Our Iranian policy is understandable only from the Iranian side. They get everything they want, including Iraq, and all we get are empty promises. Only a strong, involved president working for American interests can deliver foreign policy agreements that provide security to the nation.”

The president stared hard at the Advisor. “Are you going to send me a strong letter as well?”

“Not yet, I haven’t finished.”

“Never mind. Enough! I’m grateful you are kept down here in this hole. You would be a helluva critic if allowed out. Goodnight. I will be back to allow you to finish.”

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available nationwide from your local book store. This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 209 –ADVISOR AND A NEW STRATEGY

The Advisor knew the president wanted to talk about domestic policies on his next visit and that would be easy for him. He knew what the president wanted and how he was going about it. The president’s only problem with his domestic policies is that he is running out of time and losing influence in his party, he thought. If you follow the news reports and are intelligent and skeptical enough to read between the lines, it is apparent the president, who is a political genius in the tactic of changing direction and misdirection, is turning to things he can do with or without Congress.

Hence the turn to ISIS, or ISIL, as the president prefers as it enables him to continue denying that the foundation for a radical Muslim state is already in place. The president’s basic plan will remain the same, even if the words change. His policy is to avoid the use of American military or economic power to achieve nationalistic objectives. In his mind, the world has seen enough of American dominance through capitalism and the use of military power to intervene in world events. The president seems to believe that his one great foreign policy or international accomplishment is in the prevention of American power to solve international problems. Like no other leader, foreign or American, he has driven the U.S. out of the Middle East. The remaining bastions of Western presence in the Middle East will gradually dry up and wither away, much like the last castle strongholds of the Crusaders. The president believes a progressive new world order will emerge to create a better life for all the victims of colonialism and racism. This much he has said right to my face in this very room.

The Advisor paused his musings long enough to pour himself a fresh cup of Sumatra roast coffee and sit back down at his desk. He took a long sniff of the fresh brew and sat back in his chair, the mug warm against his hand.

The president is not a dumb man but neither is he a wise one. His strength comes from his deep commitment to the redistribution of wealth and the destruction of American world dominance. His new strategy for ISIS will not be new. Just different words. Nothing in his new strategy will adjust to ground-truth reality, but it will avoid even the slightest offense to Iran. The president knows what many of the Pentagon’s analysts have said, but he has no intentions of following any of their advice.

It is clear many foreign policy and military analysts know how ISIS can be controlled. First, Western statesman have to recognize that the Western creation of Iraq after the fall of the Turkish Empire has failed. Iraq has always been an artificial state held together by vicious and cruel dictatorial leaders. Keeping the Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis individually weak pleased two Western Cold War allies, Turkey and Iran under the Shah. Even today, neither Turkey nor Iran want to see the United States arm and support either the Kurds or the Sunnis. But any American foreign policy that fails to arm and aid the Kurds and Sunnis will fail. The world has changed. Iran is now a deadly enemy and Turkey is becoming more and more driven by a radical Islamic fervor. Both of these old allies fear the establishment on their borders of a Sunni Caliphate made up of major parts of Iraq and Syria .

Rather than arm the Kurds and Sunnis with effective weapons, so far military aid to either of them has been in the form of words, the president will be guided by Iran and Russia’s alliance with Iran and not by what is in America’s interests. Give up on Iraq as a viable nation. Forget about bringing Iran into the family of nations. Let the Kurds and Sunni tribes establish their own borders. Employ American air power at several times the current level and deploy 10,000 combat and support troops. By combining these changes with a real effort to arm the Kurds and move the Sunni tribes away from ISIS by immediate military and economic support could still be successful, but the president would have to turn his back on Iran and follow American strategic goals. That he will not do.

The Advisor shook his head and sighed heavily, then took a long sip from his mug. If only the president would listen, he thought.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, ISIS, Israel, Kurds, political solutions, Russia, Shiite, Sunni

Tagged as Iran, iraq, Kurds, Middle East, Obama, politics, sunnis, turkey

by Barry Kelly | May 3, 2015 · 7:04 am

INSIGHTS 202 — THE ADVISOR AND WHAT’S WITH THE IRAN THING?

The Advisor had worked all week in getting ready for tonight’s discussions with the president. There was a lot to cover.

The entire negotiation process with Iran was filled with false starts, new beginnings, and endless private discussions by various participants.This was going to be a hard session. The Advisor had serious reservations about negotiating with Iran, but he knew the president was dead set on doing some kind of a deal with Iran. But the president had told him he wanted to hear his candid appraisal of the Iran initiative.

A soft bell rang and the Advisor glanced at his hall monitor screen. Sure enough the President and Chris were on their way to the old iron door to his chambers and only 25 minutes late. The president gave his usual murmured greeting and sat down at the conference table in his usual seat. The Advisor poured him a cup of fresh cup of dark roast while the president was lighting a cigarette.

“I know I’m not going to like what you’re going to tell me, but you’re the smartest person I get advice from and you don’t have an agenda. Of all the things I’ve told you over the years, nothing has leaked. You and I have opposing political beliefs but no one hears them except me.”

The Advisor thought, No one hears them but my successors for as long as this nation endures will be able to read them. The president nodded and said, I’ve got 45 minutes, so let’s get started.”

“Mr. President, the Iranians or Persians are a great and proud people. They’ve slipped over the centuries from the pinnacle of being a dominant world power. They want to reclaim their heritage. They don’t have the population or the economic base to be even a regional power. They have correctly analyzed their position and have concluded that becoming a nuclear power is the quickest way to improve their status. Under their religious leadership they will not be redirected. No matter the price, they will pay it. Keeping economic sanctions on will only delay their journey to nuclear status.

“Nothing they say or promise will change their push for nuclear weapons. So you cannot trust them to keep their word. Short of changing the Iranian leadership or very heavy military strikes at their nuclear facilities and military centers nothing you or others can do will stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

“Now for the downside of negotiating with the Iranian leadership. You know better than your White House staff, the political ramifications of the Sunni/Shiite division. Our traditional Middle Eastern allies have been the Sunnis. Our dealings with the Iranians have driven a stake of mistrust between us and the Sunnis that may never be removed. In addition, the Israelis believe America has deceived them. Their trust in America has been seriously eroded.

“The other downside of a deal with the Iranians is that until now we have successfully kept the Russians out of the Middle East. You have already seen the Russians move to sell first line air defense hardware to Iran. More weapon sales will follow. Your European friends will not agree to reimpose economic sanctions. They want Iranian treasure for their goods more than they worry about Iran becoming a nuclear power. They have always been appeasers when faced with a choice between future dangers and the promise of prosperity now.

“One last point. when Iranians get the bomb, they will use it. My time is up.”

“Good. I’ll tell you now, while I agree to some of your analysis, I do not agree with your overall conclusions. My plan is to use Iran to change the world order in a way that will ensure a more peaceful world based on a partnership between nations in a playing field I have leveled. At our next meeting, it will be my turn to talk.”

The president ground out his last cigarette and left.

The above is a fictional account of a president meeting with a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Eight Decades of Insights, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Israel, political solutions, Russia, Shiite, Sunni

Tagged as advisor, America, Barack Obama, Iran, negotiations, President Obama

by Barry Kelly | April 14, 2015 · 7:36 am

INSIGHTS 199 — A WORD TO LIBERALS

I think I know how to talk to a liberal because I once was one.

Of course, that was before the progressives took over the Democratic Party and moved it so far left it would be right at home in Russia, China, or Cuba. No, it is not repressive enough yet for those bastions of central planning and re-education camps. But unless the more centralist members of the party retake control, a one-party system with increasing repression is coming.

I left the Democratic Party because I saw their fixation on the application of Keynesian economics was just not working and it doesn’t take years of pondering to see that growing the size and scope of government beyond absolute needs doesn’t in itself solve problems. Many times it only makes things worse by drafting and implementing more and more regulations.

It is not only the Democrats that grow government. There are big government Republicans who are just as culpable in the increasing size and scope of government. Two of the worse examples occurred with a Republican White House.

After Sept. 11, 2001, President Bush created two large and, I believe, nearly useless bureaucracies: the Department Of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Everyone was in shock over 9/11 and were making frantic efforts to fix whatever problems prevented us from thwarting this historical terrorist event. It is in our DNA to centralize anything at the slightest opportunity. When things go wrong, “Put someone in charge.” Is the cry that echoes across the land. The fact is that someone was already in charge but didn’t make the right choices or put their own agency’s interests over that of the nation. Replacing these people and changing the bureaucratic nature of their organization was what should have been done. We should not have put many diverse organizations that were already on the edge of being nearly unmanageable due to size and complexity under a single new manager. Adding layers of management seldom has improved anything.

Big government and its sister, centralization, is at the core of all socialist systems. Republicans and Democrats are both at fault. I can’t blame the Progressives for growing and centralizing the size and scope of government. It is what they do. It is their mantra. Leaving the Saul Alinsky followers and other Progressives aside under leaders like President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Elizabeth Warren, it might be possible for traditional Democrats and Republicans to have real discussions.

I believe a starting point for dialogue to save our country is to use the following principles as a foundation for cooperation:

Honesty and openness in the conduct of government;
Peace comes through the prudent use and display of strength;
A foreign policy that is loyal to our allies and respected by our enemies;
A recognition that freedom is not free;
We are an exceptional nation based on the rule of law;
Tax rich more than others, but everyone pays something in some way;
Corruption has no place in our government or in our economy;
The civil service must not be political and public workers should not organize against the people;
We can be judged on how we treat our children, the sick, the poor, the elderly, and our veterans;
A nonpartisan and objective media is a necessary part of our democracy;
We are a nation of immigrants and will always welcome newcomers who obey our laws and learn our language, history, and culture.

“ISIS Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats.

INSIGHTS 197 — HILLARY-THE DISAPPEARING CANDIDATE

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The darling of the progressive left of the Democratic Party is fast losing her appeal. A bit of pragmatism is settling into the progressives. To complete the socialization of America by destroying its economy and military power to make this nation an average member of the world order with a one-party system of government, they need to capture the White House in 2016. If they don’t, the progress toward socialism made by Obama will be wiped out by a party of mainstream Americans. I believe they are increasingly coming to the belief that Hillary cannot win.

She just has too much baggage and few to zero accomplishments. She is not even a good campaigner. Her speeches are mind-numbing. Let’s look at the balance sheet of advantages and disadvantages of Hillary Clinton. Beyond name recognition, I cannot point out any other asset besides, of course, her relationship with Wall Street. On the bad baggage side, she lost a primary to a first-term senator whose only accomplishment was that he could flawlessly deliver a speech as long as it was printed on a teleprompter. Barack Obama outsmarted the Clinton’s at every turn. He knew she was a poor campaigner.

As Secretary of State I cannot think of a single accomplishment of hers beyond accumulating more frequent flyer miles than any of her predecessors. Our relationships with Russia, Sunni Arabs, China, Israel, NATO nations are all less effective now than when she took office. During her service as Secretary of State she acted as if she was above the law and government rules and procedures.

Perhaps the worst was the tragedy of Benghazi. She knowingly lied to the surviving families of the dead Americans at Andrews Air Force Base as their loved ones were arriving in flag-draped coffins from Libya. She knew they died in an attack by terrorists and that she had denied the repeated requests of the State Department personnel in Benghazi to improve their security. Instead, she blamed the attack on an offensive video and promised to bring the responsible film producer to justice. He was punished but not in the name of justice. Of all the things I have seen in government, this is the most despicable of all.

There is no end to the damage Hillary can cause. She can’t even leave government employment without breaking more laws with her incredible disdain for the use of government communications channels for all official communications. It is not only the need to maintain government records but also the protection of classified information that is ignored by the use of a private server in your own home. If anything, Hillary’s government operations are even less transparent than the president’s.

But she won’t be thrown under the bus for these failings but for the growing awareness that she will be a loser. The progressives will draft someone else before the convention.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $3.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “ISIS Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, will be out in early April.