Category Archives: Kurds

by Barry Kelly | May 27, 2015 · 7:48 am

INSIGHTS 208 — THE ADVISOR CORRECTS A FALSE NARRATIVE

During one of the long intervals between presidential visits to The Advisor’s underground office, the Advisor thought to himself: if no one else will get history right and correct the false narratives circulating from the White House and the liberal press, my journals and my Facebook account will contain a clear report of what was happening during my term as the Advisor.

The Bush regime won the war but paved the way for a failed Iraqi government when they destroyed the Iraqi army and the Bath party of Saddam Hussein. None of the existing infrastructure every government needs was left. To make matters worse, the Advisor thought, shaking his head, the Bush administration failed to understand a Shiite/al-Maliki government would never be a check to the Shiite nation of Iran. Instead, the Iranians ended up owning Maliki who preceded to further weaken the Sunnis and the Kurds. For all the American blood and treasure the Bush administration spent in Iraq, little was left for Obama to work with, especially given his primary motive to get out of Iraq as quickly as possible. I doubt President Obama, or either of his inept secretaries of state, ever saw the real geo-political problem a Maliki government would cause. You would think that President Obama, who leans hard in the direction of supporting Sunni Muslims, would have recognized the growth and consequences of Shiite power in Iraq. “Some would argue that he didn’t care about Iraq, his sights were set on using Iran to transform the traditional world order in the Middle East,” he said aloud to no one. “And I am one of them.”

The Advisor sat down at his desk and continued musing. You didn’t need timely intelligence, which Obama claims he never received, to see the Sunni Islamic radicals that joined the rebellion against Syrian Shiite President Assad could easily cross the border into Sunni areas of Iraq. The Sunni tribes alienated by Maliki were ready to provide support in the form of manpower, logistics, weapons, and money. Borders mean nothing if they are not defended.

The result of the ISIS invasion of Iraq is that tribal and religious areas no longer follow the lines drawn by western diplomats after World War I. All remnants of the Shiite/Maliki government are being forced to fall back into Shiite populated areas, primarily south of Baghdad. A realistic map of Iraq will soon show Sunniland, Kurdistan and Shiiteland. The Sunnis and the Kurds will never go back into a centralized Shiite-run government. That failed experiment is over. Only more American blood and treasure could delay the collapse of Iraq, and for what? Our government needs to stop believing an Iraqi centralized government is possible. It is not.

Our policy should be to support the Kurds with modern weapons and monetary aid until their own fighters get properly equipped and to persuade the outside Sunni world to help bring the ISIS under some restraint. In the meantime, use unfettered air power and required boots-on-the-ground to break the advance of ISIS and stop their atrocities against the Christians and other religious groups ISIS is now slaughtering. Some massive evacuations of endangered refugees may be necessary. All because two administrations failed to see the Middle East as it is. Hawks and doves are equally to blame.

With this president’s commitment to Iran. I don’t believe he will allow his administration to support the Kurds or Sunnis in Iraq. They certainly have not sent needed supplies to the Kurds despite their statements to the contrary.

The Advisor sat in silence for a few moments before picking up his pen and putting his thoughts down on a fresh page in his journal.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and Kindle formats.This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 204 — The Advisor’s Core Facts of the Middle East

The Advisor had no trouble putting together the realities of the Middle East, but he spent extra time deciding how to present a picture that would not cause the president to walk out on him during his presentation. The president was intelligent but had a very thin skin for such an accomplished political campaigner. Perhaps, he thought, it is because the truth had no place on his campaign trails. On the campaign, the ends for him clearly justified whatever needed to be done or said to weaken the opposition. The president had taken on board the Saul Alinsky rules totally. The issue is never the issue is his guidance for all his policies and speeches. The man is remarkably consistent and, for his followers, he is brilliant. He can avoid and ignore issues that any previous president would have believed he had to take on.

As he mused over his dilemma, the Advisor worked to stay within his historic guidelines. He had to advise his president to the best of his ability. The fact that he thought this president was clearly focused on destroying the political and economic structure he inherited was a problem, for his responsibility was to advise the president in his role to protect and improve the life of its citizens. If he could be just a little dishonest, he could rationalize that the president wanted to improve America. But in the process of socialization, great harm would be done. Freedom and the ability to rise above the norm would be lost as long as socialism, communism, or progressivism prevailed. He just couldn’t, or more honestly, wouldn’t follow that path.

At that moment, the Advisor’s only phone rang, with the only person he ever spoke to, outside the president, on the other line. Chris Hammond, the chief of the President’s Secret Service detail, said the president would late, somewhere near midnight. Good, he thought, that will give me time for a nap, a shower, and a frozen Indian curry dinner.

It was almost midnight when the Advisor put on a fresh pot of Sumatra dark roast. He was just getting ready to pour himself a cup when the faint alarm sounded and the president entered.

“Welcome, Mr. President. You must be able to smell fresh coffee brewing.”

The president chuckled. “When the coffee is as good as yours, I could smell it for miles, even when it is coming from an underground cave. Your existence is even more constrained than mine. I suspect you have learned to take pleasure in small things.”

“Yes, I have. That is very perceptive of you. There doesn’t seem to be much instant gratification in your life.”

“No, there isn’t. And I think I won’t get much in the next hour or so. Shall we begin? Surprise me.” The president sat back in his seat at the conference table, a cigarette already between his fingers.

“First, some basics. You know most of these but they are important in any discussion of the Middle East, no matter the subject. The people of the Middle East have a past they are proud of and a present they are not. Tribal allegiance is still a very important factor. Mobility up the social chain is much harder than it is in America where education is the key to improved status. In the Middle East it is religion and revolution. For reasons beyond my understanding Asian and Middle Eastern people have a very long and usually patient view of the time/progress ratio. Americans are only comfortable with instant gratification plus a decade.

“Then, there is the history of religious wars and colonialism when troops from the West with superior weapons and technology subjugated people of the Middle East and attempted to impose Western culture and even religion in the conquered areas. As a result the people of this historic crossroad both admire and hate the West with its superior technology.

“After World War I, diplomats from the West drew national boundaries that failed to consider tribal loyalties, religious affiliations, and the hunger of people for their own homeland. The situation of present-day Kurds is an example. The destruction of Saddam Hussain’s Iraqi ’empire’ created a vacuum that the Iranians are filling after noting the West had abandoned the region.

“Iran is the dominant single nation in the Middle East today. For decades, they have been working to take control of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen by creating and funding Shiite terrorists groups in all these nations. The West has been ineffective in thwarting the Iranian drive to hegemony in the Middle East. Now the Iranians want to solidify their gains and they need to be a nuclear power to do so. Unless they are presented with strong military and economic resistance, they will not be deterred in achieving nuclear status with an ICBM capability. They cannot be trusted to honor any agreement or treaty that stands in the way. Nor will they stop the funding and equipping of proxy terrorist organization to further their dominance of the Middle East. Nothing in Iran will change for the better in Western terms without a regime change. I know you have other reasons for negotiating with the Ayatollahs but there will be a terrible price to pay in human terms.”

The president sat still for a moment, then took a final drag on his cigarette before grinding it down on the table. “There were some surprises but you gave the speech I expected. I have to go, but this is interesting. I’ll give my response at one of our next meetings.” He left without another word or without a look back, per usual.

The Advisor found himself already impatient to hear the president’s response.

The above is a fictional account of a president meeting with a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 195 — PICKING A CANDIDATE

Picking a candidate to replace President Obama should be easy. Just about anyone would be an improvement if they are a moderate Democrat or a small government Republican. At this point I like Governor Scott Walker and former democratic senator Jim Webb. They, along with some other candidates, share many of my list of what America needs after Obama.

My list is simple:

REDUCE THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF GOVERNMENT;
ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO GROW AND CREATE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES;
BUILD THE PIPELINE;
REDO THE TAX CODE;
RE-ESTABLISH OUR FORMER MILITARY POWER, INCLUDING NATO;
RECOGNIZE IRAN AND PUTIN AS BEING REAL THREATS TO WORLD PEACE;
CONDUCT A REAL WAR ON ISLAMIC RADICAL JIHADISTS;
STAND WITH OUR SUNNI ARAB ALLIES, KURDS, AND ISRAEL IN THE MIDDLE EAST;
CANCEL MOST OF OBAMA’S EXECUTIVE ORDERS AND AGENCY-ISSUED REGULATIONS;
REPLACE MOST OF OBAMACARE WITH A PRIVATE SECTOR PATIENT/DOCTOR PLAN;
ACHIEVE A BALANCED BUDGET PROCESS IN FOUR YEARS;
BUILD BACK CITIZENS’ TRUST IN GOVERNMENT;
SPEAK THE TRUTH TO THE PEOPLE;
TAKE CARE OF OUR VETERANS; AND
NEVER USE THE FOLLOWING WORDS OR PHRASES: FAIR SHARE, SAVE THE MIDDLE CLASS, LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD, A NATION OF COWARDS ABOUT RACE, TRANSFORM AMERICA, EVERYONE PAYING A FAIR SHARE, CARBON TAX, WORKPLACE VIOLENCE, WAR ON COAL, DANGERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, LEAD FROM BEHIND, DEPEND ON THE U.N., WAR ON WOMEN, AND I DID, MY ADMINISTRATION, I HAVE A PEN AND PHONE.

Use this list to evaluate your candidate and see how they score. In a coming blog I will talk about some individual candidates.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $3.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “ISIS,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, will be out in March or early April.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, class warfare, Conservative views, democrats, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Kurds, Obamacare, political solutions, Politics

Tagged as candidates, jim webb, Obama, President, scott walker

by Barry Kelly | February 13, 2015 · 7:33 am

INSIGHTS 189 — DANGEROUS, OR JUST AN EMBARRASSMENT?

It won’t get any better.

I believe we have a flawed president who brought a heavy load of baggage with him to the White House. He can’t escape from his personal beliefs about the guilt of American power; the socialist creed of Saul Alinsky that wealth needs to be spread equally to all individuals and nations; and leading from behind and from a place where words are the same as action.

Add those beliefs to his real-life experiences of attending a ‘hate America’ church for twenty years, his early childhood years attending a Muslim madrassa in Indonesia, his grandfather’s enduring of abuse by the British colonial authorities in Kenya, and his pre-presidential association with an unrepentant American terrorist, Mr. William Ayers, and you have a man who comes from a very different background than any of our other presidents. Don’t expect him to address the problems and issues that threaten America. He can only use those issues to attack his opposition. When the opposition is weakened, the way is open for a one-party rule by a progressive elite.

President Obama cannot turn loose the power of the free market to create jobs and wealth, for he believes in a managed economy. He can only use his power to spread the wealth and to give everyone “a fair shot.” He cannot preside over a transparent administration, for with transparency comes full disclosure. In this case all the documents requested under our Constitution and the practice of the ‘separation of powers’ by Congress would severely damage his socialist goals. Instead of a transparent Obama administration, the one he promised, we have an administration that is known for lying and delaying for years legitimate requests for information by both citizens and Congress.

Probably the most egregious cover-up is the use of the IRS to target conservative groups applying for legal tax-exempt status. President Obama may be planning to use the increasing power of the IRS to destroy any opposition. The president said he was shocked and angry about this illegal use of the IRS but now denies it ever happened and is stonewalling Congress’ requests for documents. At one point, the administration claimed the documents were permanently lost when all of the computers of the people of interest crashed.

On the foreign front, the president’s desperate effort to make a deal with Iran is even more dangerous than his inept dealings with Putin. Iran is developing nuclear weapons. It is their stated national objective. Why does the president believe the Iranians are developing and testing ICBM missiles? They are not necessary for a peaceful development of nuclear power. For some reason beyond me, President Obama has mortgaged our war with Islamic terrorism, our relationship with the Sunni nations, and Israel over his constant concessions to Iran. I believe he has not been sending arms to the Kurds due to Iranian desires to keep the Kurds from being able to defend their land and people from ISIS attacks. If any people ever deserved our help to fight for their freedom, it is the Kurds. President Obama has sent only words and token shipments of weapons directly to the Kurds. Arms to the Kurds sent via Baghdad will never get shipped on to the Kurds.

All we can do for the next two years is to fight hard to delay the president’s illegal and dangerous domestic and foreign policy whims. We must also avoid a major war. Imagine being at war with our present commander-in-chief in control. Would that the Republican leadership in Congress be smart and courageous enough to thwart the worst of his socialist hopes? Not much hope there. Just more tilting of windmills and internal fighting. The people have spoken but neither the president nor the Republican leadership are listening.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “Quiet Justice” a new novel dealing with ISIS in America will be out by mid March.

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Filed under Alinsky, Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Israel, Kurds, Obama, Politics, Progressives, Sunni, Terrorism

Tagged as Iran, IRS, Obama, policies, politics, Progressives, White House

by Barry Kelly | February 10, 2015 · 7:32 am

INSIGHTS 188 — GET OUT OF THE IRAQI BOX

If we had a non-ideologue who was also competent in world affairs as a president and a Congress that could forget about itself and get on with passing legislation the nation needs, then the mess in the Middle East would not be so hard to solve.

The problem is that it requires thinking outside the box and that means hitting the reset button on traditional beliefs. For one, policymakers must forget about Iraq being a nation. It never really was. It is just what some Western diplomats called the space between the lines they drew when the Turkmen Empire fell after World War I. There are three very large groups of people in the space labeled Iraq. Sunni tribes, Shiite tribes, and the Kurdish people.

Their customs, language, and religious beliefs are different. For the only time he was ever right, in my estimate, Vice President Joe Biden was right when he suggested during the height of the Iraq war that there were really three different groups in Iraq and each should have their own territory/nation. Of course, his timing was way off. Iraq could have continued as a nation if American forces backed up the Shiite-dominated government, but that was only a temporary fix. Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds are never going to live in the same tent without some power forcing them to do so.

The solution to the ISIS problem is for America to recognize reality. That means paying no attention to the State Department or other so-called bookish Middle Eastern pundits. The Kurds have no use for ISIS. Send them the arms they need, which, despite the Obama talk, we have never done, and the Kurds will fight. They don’t need great numbers of America’s soldiers, just some Special Forces and air support. Kurdistan has been a Kurdish dream for more than 100 years. We aren’t sending them the arms they need and want because Iran wouldn’t like that. Obama wants a deal with Iran so badly, he is willing to let the foes of ISIS be denied the freedom of living under a government of their own people. Turkey also doesn’t want to see us arm the Kurds, but the establishment of Kurdistan would reduce Kurdish attacks on Turkish territory and may bring them around, especially if we really support the anti-Assad forces in Syria.

Many of the Sunni tribes in Iraq would break clear of any support to ISIS, if they were confident the end game would give them their own land and their own national identity. They, too, will fight. They supported our forces by siding with America against al-Qaeda. In simple terms, that takes care of Iraq from Baghdad north with a few adjustments. Different lines on the map.

Remember, there is a past history of lines drawn. This time the lines would coincide with linguistic, ethnicities, and religious beliefs. The Shiites would have the area south of Baghdad where the majority of their people and religious shrines abide. Distribution of oil revenues can be done but it will be a bit sticky and may require a multi-national solution.

Iran won’t like this approach and neither will the Obama administration. Israel would support this approach as long as the United States kept Iran’s ayatollahs from annexing part of current Iraq as Putin has done in Ukraine. The only hurdles standing in the way of such a comprehensive solution is Obama’s infatuation with the Iranians and old world thinking in the State Department and Pentagon. The big upside is that Muslims would be taking care of their radical Islamic extremists with a minimum of American blood and treasure.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “Quiet Justice” a new novel dealing with ISIS in America will be out by early March.