Category Archives: oil

by Barry Kelly | March 2, 2015 · 7:57 am

INSIGHTS 192 — The facts. Nothing but the facts.

Is America a divided nation? I think so. But it is not divided primarily over race, ethnicity, religion, or class. I believe the division we see today is over ideas. Political goals and objectives are what has always separated the liberals from the conservatives. Ideas are difficult to discuss in the abstract. Maybe if we agreed on a common set of facts, we could begin building bridges across the American divide. If we cannot agree on the facts there is not much of a foundation for bridge building. I’m speaking of hard facts and not the way these facts are interpreted. Interpretation falls into the arena of good debate and discussion.

I hope the simpler I present my list of facts, the easier it will be to get to the first level of agreement. Okay, let’s go!

America today is facing several very serious foreign threats to world peace:

Russia’s expansionism
Iran’s drive to acquire nuclear weapons
radical Islam’s hot war to establish a Caliphate through the employment of terrorism and religious cleansing
North Korea, an intemperate and unpredictable developer of nuclear weapons
China’s expansionary world view and a growing hostility between the haves and have-nots of the world’s population

All these issues need serious and immediate attention by our leaders.

Domestically, we have several areas of critical importance to our economy, unemployment and under employment, the continuance of government founded on our Constitution, the rule of law, and the separation of powers doctrine. The economy needs an assured source of energy to compete in world commerce. We now have that possibility for the first time in decades. Our production of natural gas and oil are very close to making us energy self-sufficient. Fossil fuel is the only viable source of energy to fill our growing economic needs within the next two or three decades. On the job front we need to bring back oversees jobs and rapidly grow the economy. Our government needs a president who puts the needs of America over his or her personal visions of what would be or could be a more perfect world.

Two economic philosophies have built this nation: capitalism and the free-market system. Are they perfect? No. Do they need some regulation? Yes! The nation also needs a Congress and a president that recognize their respective Constitutional roles. Presidents are not kings and neither congressional house has presidential powers. They both need to stay within the America rule and practice of law.

National security first requires an ability to recognize what is required to protect our land and people and then to create and nurture those required elements. If we neglect our Armed Forces, we neglect America. Surely our short history has shown a strong military force is needed to assure our national survival. Peace has come through the military strength of democratic nations to balance and, if necessary, overwhelm the forces of totalitarian nations. Peace comes from the recognized power of democratic nations to back up their diplomatic efforts toward peaceful settlements. Confusion of national goals, a failure of leadership and will, and the neglect of military strength emboldens our enemies and discourages our allies.

Internally, corruption in government, a lack of transparency on the part of the party in power, and the deliberate falsification of information for political objectives will over a short time, destroy the faith the people have in the government of either party.

Can we all move toward the center and agree on a common set of facts?

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “ISIS,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, will be out in March.

INSIGHTS 188 — GET OUT OF THE IRAQI BOX

If we had a non-ideologue who was also competent in world affairs as a president and a Congress that could forget about itself and get on with passing legislation the nation needs, then the mess in the Middle East would not be so hard to solve.

The problem is that it requires thinking outside the box and that means hitting the reset button on traditional beliefs. For one, policymakers must forget about Iraq being a nation. It never really was. It is just what some Western diplomats called the space between the lines they drew when the Turkmen Empire fell after World War I. There are three very large groups of people in the space labeled Iraq. Sunni tribes, Shiite tribes, and the Kurdish people.

Their customs, language, and religious beliefs are different. For the only time he was ever right, in my estimate, Vice President Joe Biden was right when he suggested during the height of the Iraq war that there were really three different groups in Iraq and each should have their own territory/nation. Of course, his timing was way off. Iraq could have continued as a nation if American forces backed up the Shiite-dominated government, but that was only a temporary fix. Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds are never going to live in the same tent without some power forcing them to do so.

The solution to the ISIS problem is for America to recognize reality. That means paying no attention to the State Department or other so-called bookish Middle Eastern pundits. The Kurds have no use for ISIS. Send them the arms they need, which, despite the Obama talk, we have never done, and the Kurds will fight. They don’t need great numbers of America’s soldiers, just some Special Forces and air support. Kurdistan has been a Kurdish dream for more than 100 years. We aren’t sending them the arms they need and want because Iran wouldn’t like that. Obama wants a deal with Iran so badly, he is willing to let the foes of ISIS be denied the freedom of living under a government of their own people. Turkey also doesn’t want to see us arm the Kurds, but the establishment of Kurdistan would reduce Kurdish attacks on Turkish territory and may bring them around, especially if we really support the anti-Assad forces in Syria.

Many of the Sunni tribes in Iraq would break clear of any support to ISIS, if they were confident the end game would give them their own land and their own national identity. They, too, will fight. They supported our forces by siding with America against al-Qaeda. In simple terms, that takes care of Iraq from Baghdad north with a few adjustments. Different lines on the map.

Remember, there is a past history of lines drawn. This time the lines would coincide with linguistic, ethnicities, and religious beliefs. The Shiites would have the area south of Baghdad where the majority of their people and religious shrines abide. Distribution of oil revenues can be done but it will be a bit sticky and may require a multi-national solution.

Iran won’t like this approach and neither will the Obama administration. Israel would support this approach as long as the United States kept Iran’s ayatollahs from annexing part of current Iraq as Putin has done in Ukraine. The only hurdles standing in the way of such a comprehensive solution is Obama’s infatuation with the Iranians and old world thinking in the State Department and Pentagon. The big upside is that Muslims would be taking care of their radical Islamic extremists with a minimum of American blood and treasure.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “Quiet Justice” a new novel dealing with ISIS in America will be out by early March.

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by Barry Kelly | January 22, 2015 · 7:42 am

INSIGHTS 185 — DANGEROUS DELUSIONS ( A response to the State of the Union)

As President Obama faced the audience for his State of the Union address, did he note that there were 80-plus more Republicans in the seats than there were when he took office? The change was one of historical significance. I don’t think he noticed.

But maybe he just doesn’t care. His attitude varied between confidence and arrogance. It takes real chutzpah to threaten vetoes and more of the same progressive programs when operating from a weakened presidency. He won’t work to solve any of the nation’s problems or issues because that is not what he does nor has he ever. Issues are to be used to destroy the opposition and bring about the progressive transformation of America.

This president believes that the American people are really dumb. Who is a better judge of how the economy is going, a man who isolates himself from reality or everyday people who have to struggle to pay their bills and plan to take care of their families? The administration’s unemployment figures are useful only if you are trying to deceive people. Wages have been stagnant for years. No matter what the progressives preach, wages do not improve until employers are competing among each other for workers. Increasing the minimum wage increases the cost of doing business — it does not create jobs. In fact, employers struggling to save their businesses often lay workers off to pay the mandated higher wages for current workers.

Today there is not much workplace competition for college graduates. Maybe less than 50 percent of recent graduates have been offered jobs commensurate with their new skills. These young, ambitious graduates know the economy is still in trouble. Beside an increase in the minimum wage, Obama’s proposal to help the economy is to create more graduates by offering two free years at a community college. This proposal would actually make sense if done on the state level and produced workers needed in industries located in the state. The last thing American people need is more federal management of their personal and work lives. Let the states work with local business to create curricula that actually help graduates get jobs. This proposal, like all other progressive proposals, has at its core the re-distribution of wealth.

How can he complain about the failure of Congress to pass legislation when the majority leader in the Senate, Harry Reid, with the president’s approval, prevented hundreds of bills from reaching the Senate floor for debate and a subsequent vote? No bill was brought up for a vote unless it was one the president wanted to sign! This is not a secret. Only a president who lives in a different universe than we do could possibly believe Americans do not know the story about Harry Reid and his refusal to allow bills to reach the Senate floor.

A quick look at Obama’s foreign policy statements. He stated our military has stopped the expansion of ISIS. Simply not true. He said Russia is in economic trouble because of America’s quiet diplomacy at work. False. Russia is in trouble because it depends solely on the money from a single export product, oil. When Saudi Arabia opened up their oil pumps to glut the market and drive down the price of oil to damage their competitors, Russia, Iran, ISIS, Venezuela, and America, who cannot afford to sell oil at or below the Saudi price. Russia’s economic problem has nothing to do with anything Obama said or did.

Another delusion is that we are not at war with terrorism by Islamic jihadists. Islam is not a peaceful religion. Extremists can find approval for their actions in the Koran. As long as the millions of Muslims, living in peace with the West, do not check their extremists our commander-in-chief must recognize the predominate role Islam plays in worldwide terrorism. The president touts his success in combating “extremists” in Yemen at the same time U.S. warships are moving toward Yemen’s coastline to evacuate Americans.

Obama’s infatuation with climate change and its link to human activity is simply that, an infatuation with a scheme that would redistribute wealth on a global scene. Does anyone, besides the president, believe China will live up to its promise to reduce carbon emissions 15 years from now?

Even more troubling are his statements that negotiations now underway with Iran have stopped the Iranian drive to develop nuclear weapons. That would be wonderful if there was even a 20 percent chance of that being correct. But it is not. Iran’s leaders believe their national interest as a power in the Middle East and the world depends on them having a nuclear weapons capability. All they need is time and the bumbling negotiating team under Obama/Kerry are giving Iran the time. Obama vows he will veto any standby sanctions on Iran voted by Congress. Believing negotiations can stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons is is a dangerous delusion. A nuclear-capable Iran puts the world at more danger than at any time during the Cold War era. The next two years will be very hard on America and very dangerous to a leaderless world. Do we have to learn again that peace is found in strength not weak compromises and delusional ranting?

(If you’re interested, here is my response to another Obama State of the Union. Click here.)

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/mystery novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, complexity, Conservative views, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, ISIS, Obama, oil, Saudia Arabia, Terrorism

by Barry Kelly | January 19, 2015 · 11:08 am

INSIGHTS 184 — STATE OF THE UNION SPIN

When you watch President Obama’s State of the Union speech, remember he deals in spin, flipping issues, and tailored numbers. The truth is not an ingredient for Obama’s speeches.

For example, he will take credit for an improving economy and the huge drop in gas prices. The economy is not improving and won’t under his tenure. Unemployment is still in double digits if the numbers were honest.

Dropping out of the work force and off the unemployment roles does not mean you have found a job. Job growth numbers are spun to maximize part-time workers and those who quit looking. The increased supply in crude oil is not due to anything Obama or his administration have done or are doing. Oil production from federal land has dropped. The increase in oil production in America from fracking is nearly all from private or state-owned lands.

The glut in the current oil market is because Saudi Arabia’s existence depends on revenue from crude oil production. Saudi market share was being reduced by cheap oil from Russia, Iran, ISIS, Venezuela, and America. The Saudis can not afford to lose market share. The Saudis know none of these oil producers can pump and sell oil under $60 or $70 per barrel. The Saudis can for a long time.

The Russian ruble is falling like a stone, many American crude oil producers of oil pumped in America are being hurt. Many are cutting back and laying off workers, some are in or close to bankruptcy. Venezuela is a financial shambles. They cannot support Cuba any longer. (Want to guess why the Castros were so eager to make a deal with Obama?)

Iran and ISIS both enemies of the Saudis are also being punished for marketing oil under OPEC prices. American companies with large stakes in Saudi Oil are doing fine. The days when Saudi Arabia and America were close allies are over.

The Saudis bear a large part of the blame for the upsurge of militant Islam. For many decades, the Saudi government funded the teaching of an extreme form of Islam throughout the world. That was their way of ensuring the radical imams did not preach revolution within Saudi Arabia. So far, their self-serving formula has worked. There is a good chance their costly punishment of competitive oil producers may also work for a while. Obama is not a player. He is just trying to use the issue to make his presidency look far better than it is.

The real issue for a response to the president’s State of the Union speech is: can the nation ever recover from Obama’s progressive transformation of America? The answer is probably not in a few years, but maybe in a decade. The damage is incredible. The entire government structure has supported Obama’s fictional view of America and the world. They no longer can separate the truth from the lies they live by every day. The IRS is a perfect example. Drastic change is necessary.