Category Archives: Putin

by Barry Kelly | March 4, 2014 · 7:40 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 103

PUTIN-OBAMA FACEOFF

Are Putin’s action in the Ukraine a surprise? I hope not, but for the group of amateurs in this administration, they probably were. Is there a foreign policy expert in the stack of dead wood the president depends on? Certainly not Secretary of State Kerry or Vice President Biden or the departed Mrs. Clinton. Reminds me of the surprise of the Carter White House when the Ayatollah was allowed to enter Iran from Europe. When have deeply committed religious radicals ever established a true democracy with regular free elections? I think the Carter administration was shocked when his followers took over the U.S. Embassy in Teheran and established an Islamic theocracy. When the Russians moved into Afghanistan, he was again surprised.

For centuries, the czars had tried to establish a geo-political foothold in South Asia. Through Afghanistan was the most direct route to a warm-water port and the riches of the sub-continent. Only the power of the British Empire thwarted the Russian plan. The Russians, seeing a weak U.S. president, made their move and thousands of lives were lost to add to the total killed by the Muslim aristocracy in Iran. History holds many keys to the future and weakness invites aggression. It has always been so. Now what about Ukraine?

The Ukraine was part of the great Russian Empire that President Putin wants to restore. Ukraine looks both east and west. To the west are its hopes for a close relationship with Europe to balance the threat from Russia. To the east it has a long border with a powerful nation that has shown its willingness to use its military power to achieve political goals, such as the forcible annexation of a part of the Georgia nation in the era of the Bush presidency. Ukraine’s current leadership knows it cannot afford a conflict with Russia without strong political support from the west.

What are President Putin’s plans? Well, even the Obama administration should understand that the recent upheaval in the Ukraine threatens Russia’s strategic interests. The only warm-water port in the entire Russian nation is in the Ukraine. This port is part of a settlement between Ukraine and Russia. Russia’s entire Black Sea Naval Force calls Sevastopol home. A large portion of the people in the area of Sevastopol are Russian ethnics. President Putin probably felt he had to move to protect his naval forces. The question is will he push to acquire Ukrainian territory beyond the strategic area of Sevastopol? He knows his history. There is not great love between the people of Ukraine and the Russians to the east. When the German panzers pushed into the Ukraine in World War II, many Ukrainians welcomed them as liberators. Some even took up arms and supported the Germans. Unfortunately, for those Ukrainians and the German Army, the German leadership treated the Ukrainians like the other people they had conquered. German cruelty knew no ethnic bounds in their drive to occupy Moscow.

President Obama has few options. One is to know that his plan to reduce the U.S. Army to pre-World War II levels is another revealing sign of his weakness. He should immediately re-think his destruction of American power. Peace has never come from weakness. A strong America is necessary for a path to peace. The progressive party is well on the way to achieving what neither the aggressors of both World Wars and the Cold War could accomplish. Our president is a master of winning elections but he is way out of his league when dealing with a man who is not afraid of power and its use.

If Putin goes beyond the securing of routine access to strategic Russian bases in the Crimea portion of the Ukraine and annexes Ukrainian territory, the Obama administration will maybe learn that words do not count for much in the constant struggle to maintain world peace. Weakness only feeds the actions of dictators. It does nothing in the struggle to contain territorial aggression. The willingness to maintain and use national power when necessary, sets apart real leaders from empty ones. Ronald Reagan was a real leader. Barack Obama is not.

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Filed under Afghanistan, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, political solutions, Politics, Progressives, Putin, Russia

Tagged as foreign policy, Obama, Putin, Russia, ukraine

by starediting | September 9, 2013 · 10:54 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS – ADVISOR 74

WHAT THE RUSSIANS WANT

The Advisor had done some research in the history of Russia’s struggle to compete with British seapower and later the United States. The czars as well as Mr. Putin, who believes he is a czar, understand the need for the Russian fleet to have a warm water port. Without an all-weather port the Russians cannot extend their power much beyond their own borders. The Advisor thought, it is precisely this kind of knowledge the President does not have. Nothing in his background prepared him to understand the real world which is that nations act in their own interest. If you don’t understand this central reality, your foreign policy is composed of reactions to events you really don’t understand. Like it or not, his mission required him to educate as well as advise President Obama.

The Advisor knew the President seldom took his advice but he was enough of a scholar to listen thoughtfully and enough of an ideologue to follow his collectivist doctrine. The President would be down here within the next hour. I’ll ask him if he will allow me to present my research. Right on schedule, the ancient steel clad door opened and the President strode in. “Good evening Mr. President. The coffee is ready. Take what ever seat you want. I did some research this week and, if you will permit, I will give you the bottom lines.”

“Well, I thought your advice was just the result of your eight decades of life. I’m intrigued that you include research. So go ahead.”

“Thank you. Why are the Russians so hard to work with in the disaster we call Syria? Russia has no common border with Syria. Syria has no supply of oil or minerals. They have no exports Russia wants or needs. Yet Russia is sending game-changing weapons to Syria and, if their past behavior is any guide, they have or will also send technicians and weapons specialists to Syria. Putin knows there is no one to stop him. Certainly not any Arab or Persian State. Israel can’t without our help. The Euro powers are too focused on themselves to risk capital and blood for anyone else. I have no special insight to U.S. Russian policy but I do remember you whispering to President Medvedev before Putin took the presidency again, asking him to tell Putin you would have more flexibility after the election. Putin is a Czar. He only understands strength. Your secret message to Medvedev told Putin you were in a weak position. In Syria he believes you will not oppose Russia’s historical push to have a warm water port.

“Without a warm water port their fleet is frozen in, bottled up in the Black Sea or cruising far beyond their supply base for many months of each year. Again there is no proof I know of but the Soviet push into Afghanistan in the 1980s was another step in their bumbling efforts dating back to the Czars to gain a corridor to warm water. Syria has dangled a warm water port in the Mediterranean called Tartous. The Russians have already done significant development projects in this port. They really don’t much care who rules Syria as long as Tartous is firmly in Russian control. The Russians will do whatever is necessary to ensure they do not lose control of this port. They have never been so close in recent history to the control of a warm water port. A Syrian regime friendly to the United States that would exercise real control over Tartous is not acceptable. Putin, today, has no respect for America. He only understands strength and has no use for words that are mere rhetoric.

“There is more at stake in Syria than the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad from Syria. I don’t think your Administration understands the historical power that motivates Putin to capture an all-weather port. That single feat will mark him as the greatest of all Russia’s Czars. A warm water port at no cost in blood or treasure. A remarkable achievement.”

“You’re telling me Russia’s end game in Syria is for a seaport?”

“Yes. Of course, they don’t mind throwing all Western powers out of the Middle East.”

“No one on my team will believe your analysis.”

“Try some military scholars. They will tell you the same thing,” The Advisor said, as the President was getting up to leave. “Mr. President, maybe you need some different people on your team.”

The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to share this on Facebook and to click the “like” button below. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful. Find and connect with the author on Goodreads.

Eight Decades of Insights 73-advisor (factsandfictions.com)
Eight Decades of Insights 65 (factsandfictions.com)

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Tagged as Obama, Russia, Syria, warm water port

by Barry Kelly | July 22, 2013 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 65

LEADING FROM BEHIND–THE ADVISOR

The Advisor was thinking about how forceful he could be in advising President Obama. The subject for his next visit would be the consequences in foreign policy of leading from behind. The President wasn’t a stupid or a cruel man. He was just a man who carried an enormous amount of baggage.

Could anyone walk away from the influences he was subject to in his earlier life? the advisor thought. Some he was personally responsible for, others he had no real choice. Parents from far to the left, several years in a Muslim Madrassi teaching Wahhabism. His father, an anti-colonialist Kenyan, whose family had been persecuted by the British Colonialists. For most of his formidable years he was exposed to radical leftist ideologies. Then, the influence of Ivy League progressives, Saul Alinsky and his radical plan for seizing power, Reverend Wright and his hate America sermons, William Ayers and his terrorist viewpoint and to top it off the ruthless and corrupt school of Chicago politics. The President never personally suffered from his associations and ideology. Therefore, he has no understanding of the consequences of following a revolutionary ideology. It is probably too late now but I must try. I will never knowingly give him bad advice or try to manipulate him. My mission code does not allow it. After all, he was elected twice and could probably win a third term if it were permitted.

The advisor’s musing is interrupted when the flashing red light and soft chiming called him to the phone.

The President arrived a few minutes later at nine o’clock PM. The President strode into the room, greeted the advisor and said, “Let’s get started. I have some extra time and need a cup of your coffee.”

“Mr. President, you look like a man who doesn’t have a care in the world.”

“Today was good day. No one was asking me to do the impossible. Why do my supporters and staff think I should get involved in everything?”

“You are the ‘point of the spear.’ They count on you to give them what they want without understanding that doing nothing is also, at times, a good action plan. There, a perfect opening for my talk. Remember, you told me to pick the topic. So I’m going to talk about the concept of leading from behind. Please interrupt at any time. I’m going to use foreign affairs as a backdrop for my advice.

“You are in the fifth year of your Presidency. That is long enough for you to own America’s position in the world. You will not like some of my statements. But I will assure you, the the facts are correct. My analysis may be faulty because I project it into the future where no one can be absolutely sure they are right. First our main adversary, Russia. They are stronger now than they were before your election. Today their fleet is in the Mediterranean, something that was inconceivable in the last several decades. They have nearly secured a warm water port in the Med, a Russian goal going back to the czars. They failed in Afghanistan to find a corridor to warm water. Russia’s ability to project power has been limited for centuries because they lacked a port with year round operations capability. The Syrian port of Tartous is the payoff for their support to Assad. Sure, they enjoy threatening American and Israeli interests in the Middle East, but Tartous is the real goal.

“To see more clearly the Russian move into the Middle East, imagine a monopoly game where the winner gains areas of influence and the losers, well, lose. You failed to negotiate a status of forces agreement in Iraq where it was in no one’s interest for the U.S. to abandon the country. Certainly sectarian violence would be lessened if we had a seat at the table. Iran could not supply Syria forces through or over Iraq. Iran could not threaten Iraq if we had maintained a presence in Iraq. Iran would have a harder time supplying Hezbollah and using that force to control Lebanon, another possibility for Russia to exploit to acquire a warm water port. Our anti-ballistic missiles on the ground in Iraq could bring more defense against an Iranian attack on Israel or the Sunni Middle East. ‘Leading from Behind’ policies have resulted in our loss of space supremacy, ABM land-based systems, and talks about unilaterally cutting force size and our inventor of ballistic missiles that have kept us from a nuclear war since WWII. Our loss of influence in Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and Pakistan is not a foreign affairs victory. Leading from behind means you are and will remain behind.

“Leading from behind does not win respect in the world. Your monopoly board does not look good. Putin has no respect for you as leader because he sees you weakening America and, therefore, believes you are not someone he should worry about. Most of the world respects power and distrusts weakness. To world leaders words don’t matter. Words without action are invisible. To start with I advise you to say less and do more. You can project American power without following the old colonial pattern you hate so much.”

The President puts his cup down, grinds out his cigarette.

The Advisor says, “Yes. I have known ever since you sent the bust of Winston Churchill back to England. Your constant concern is for the little nation, the poor people, the Muslim nations over the Colonial West. If you achieve your goal of leveling America and the world, you’ll destroy both and civilization of all will suffer. But that is for another time.”

The President gets up and strides to the door. He looks back as he leaves and says, “You can’t be right.”

The Advisor says, “Goodnight Mr.President,” to the sound of an automatic locking door.

He thought, that went well.

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. http://www.factsandfictions.com

The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to pass on this blog or parts of it to your contacts and friends. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful.

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 48

ENOUGH?

Whether Republican, Democrat, or Progressive, the facts don’t change. You are entitled to your interpretation of the facts but lets agree on the facts. In the bullet list of what I believe are facts, I’ll try to keep my conservative views on the sidelines. Since the mainstream media does not cover most of the items in this list, many citizens will not be familiar with these facts.

FACTS:

* President Obama has appointed more czars than any other president. Maybe more than all others combined.

English: Barack Obama signing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act at the White House (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

* President Obama’s administration has not followed the Constitutional requirement to forward a budget to Congress every year.

* President Obama’s landmark legislation (Obamacare) was passed without either the people or Congress given a chance to read it.

*President Obama has bypassed Congressional rules and precedents to appoint officials without the advice and consent of the Senate.

* President Obama has spent trillions more than the government takes in.

* President Obama has expanded the role and size of the executive departments and agencies.

* President Obama has used executive power to bypass Congressional authority.

* President Obama refused the Republican offer to give him the authority to select where the sequestration cuts would be made to lessen the impact on the people.

* President Obama has stonewalled Congressional rights to information in the case of the death of the American ambassador in the terrorist attack on Ben Ghazi and in the case of ‘fast and furious’ supplying guns to Mexico’s drug cartels. On the Ben Ghazi issue he refused to call it a terrorist attack for two weeks, insisting more facts were needed. The Justice Department arrested a filmmaker accused of inciting the attack on Ben Ghazi. The president vowed to bring the attackers to justice. So far, we have no evidence of the effort to apprehend them. Evidence is now surfacing that no attempt was made to rescue the embattled personnel at the consulate and annex.

* President Obama has supported the Arab position in issues with Israel.

* President Obama refuses to use the term “War on Terror.” The killing of several soldiers at Fort Hood by an Army major and follower of Islam shouting Islamic slogans is called “workplace violence.”

* The President and his Attorney General consistently opt to give Islamic terrorists the protection and rights usually reserved for U.S. citizens.

* The President’s redline was crossed by Assad in Syria weeks ago when he used chemical weapons against the Syrian people. No comment or action so far.

* The President’s repeated attempts to engage the Iranian regime regarding their efforts to develop nuclear weapons have not worked.

* An open microphone caught the President whispering to President Medvedev of Russia to, “Tell Putin he (Obama) would have more flexibility after the election.”

* Despite the President’s words, unemployment is worse.

* Under President Obama, welfare recipients have risen dramatically.

* The President campaigned on the promise Obamacare would bring down medical costs. They have increased instead.

* The President stated he would support “all of the above” in discussing his energy plans. He and his administration have constantly taken positions to destroy our fossil fuel production. The coal industry is shutting down. The Keystone Pipeline from Canada is still pending another EPA ‘study.’ Billions have been spent in supporting marginal energy producers that haven’t worked.

* Stimulus One did not provide private sector jobs. The President remains committed to the belief government spending is the key to economic development.

* Obama’s administration has issued more regulations impacting economic development than either Presidents Carter or Clinton.

* President Obama has not focused on job development in the private sector.

* President Obama has not tried to find who leaked voluminous intelligence secrets to the press. All the leaks made the President look good.

I’m sure many Progressives can explain these facts in a favorable light. That is their right. At least some of the facts should concern even Progressives. Most of them should concern Democrats. Given a stronger Congress, President Obama would be flirting with impeachment proceedings.

By the author of the Jack Brandon Thriller series. www.factsandfictions.com

Taking part in a Nov. 10, 2009, memorial service on Fort Hood, Texas, President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama look at the photograph of one of the victims of the Nov. 5 shooting rampage that left 13 dead and 38 wounded. See more at http://www.army.mil (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Frank: I Don’t Know Why President Obama Will Not Define Boston Terror Attack As Jihad (freebeacon.com)
AP Scrubs ‘Muslim’ from Obama’s Self-Referential Joke (frontpagemag.com)
Eight Decades of Insights 44 (factsandfictions.com)

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Tagged as Barack Obama, Benghazi, Congress, Dmitry Medvedev, Fort Hood, Keystone Pipeline, Obama, United States, United States Congress

by Barry Kelly | March 25, 2013 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 41

Duty, Honor, Country (Photo credit: Roger Smith)

LYING IS THE ISSUE

I’ m positive President Obama is a disciple of Saul Alinsky. Mr Alinsky published his guidelines for Progressives. He put forth several rules but the essence of his teaching is that the issue is never the issue. The practical effect of that simple statement is Progressive politicians and supporting radicals should never get bogged down in political battles over any issue. They should remain focused on using all issues to destroy the existing government structure and all opposition. The pragmatic advantage of Mr. Alinsky’s theory is that radicals are free to take any side of any issue at any time. How can you debate against a team using Alinsky’s rules? The answer is you can not.

But there is a serious weakness in Alinksy’s dictum that radicals can change their positions at anytime. It is not a pragmatic flaw. It is one derived from generations of codes of honor. There is a reason why parents tell their children not to lie. Parents look their sons and daughters right in the eye and with all the seriousness they can muster tell them, “You are only as good as your word, if you have nothing but your word you will be respected, don’t say things if you don’t mean it, and people must be able to count on your word.” Did President Obama never hear those words? Maybe not if we judge him by what he says.

Let’s look at some examples. I realize that those of you who are emotionally tied to the Progressive Movement or left wing of the Democratic Party will not believe the president’s shifting positions damage the trust Americans give to their leader. My definition of lying is when a person knowingly makes a statement they know is untrue. Mistakes or errors are not lies. The following are all summarized statements or positions of Candidate Obama, President Obama, or those of senior staff members who were speaking with his approval. You judge if the president was lying or not.

*Under Obamacare you will be able to keep your doctor and your current insurance plan.

*Obamacare will save money.

*President Bush’s spending that increased the National Debt and saddled our children with paying our bills was unpatriotic.

*Sequestration was a Republican idea. I’ll veto any attempt to change it. Terrible things will happen if sequestration is not stopped: Air flights delayed, teachers, policemen and firemen laid off. Thousands of jobs lost.

*We do not have a spending problem.

* The White House was not aware of the dangers to the Ben Ghazi Consulate.

* I told our security officials to do everything possible to help the Americans fighting in Ben Ghazi.

* My energy policy includes all of the above, both green and fossil fuel resources to make America energy self-sufficient.

*Taxes should not be increased in a struggling economy.

*My plan is to reach out to Republicans to bring our finances under control.

* (An open mike slip in a comment last year to President Medvedev of Russia): “Tell Putin I will have more flexibility after the election.”

I believe there are enough lies associated with the issues above to cause many of our citizens to lose trust and confidence in President Obama’s word and, therefore, in his presidency. Alinsky followers may believe the issue is never the issue but a lie is always a lie. Alinsky’s morality is not ours.

By the author of the Jack Brandon thriller series.

http://www.factsandfictions.com