Category Archives: Russia

by Barry Kelly | September 3, 2015 · 7:02 am

INSIGHTS 228 — GETTING READY TO TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY

The Advisor was lost in thought, in between talks from his only visitor, the President.

The President has been so candid recently. I have to get ready to ask him some more challenging questions. I think he enjoys the challenge. He’s got to be immersed in the current economic crisis so I’ll start getting my background material ready. Many Americans do not see the economy, the process of making and selling things, as being different from the stock market. But they are two very different areas. While one affects the other to some degree, it is very difficult for experts to agree on the exact cause and effect of changes in the stock market. Economists talk knowingly about the state of the economy and what is needed to improve its performance. But in reality they should be called political economists because their analysis depends on whether they are supply-side economists or Keynesian economists.

The President’s progressive wing of the Democratic Party is nearly exclusively Keynesian. Those people believe the level and management of government spending is the key to growing the economy. The opposing side of free market/supply side economists believe growth can only come through the capitalist process of making and selling products outside the governing process. The fewer the regulations and the lower the taxes, the more the economy is free to grow. In their minds, a growth rate of between 4 percent and 8 percent is ideal with a tax rate on corporations around 15 percent.

The Keynesian monetary policies have never worked anywhere, though they were tried extensively during the Roosevelt era. Since government spending on sectors such as infrastructure can only be financed from taxes from people and corporations, Keynesian management of the economy inhibits the growth that is necessary to finance needed infrastructure, human services, and the military. Most everyone is in favor of these items but only the progressives with their Keynesian finance managers believe spending on social welfare and infrastructure stimulate the economy to grow. The first place they look for money for social services and infrastructure is the military budget. Few progressives believe in maintaining a strong military. I must remember to ask the President about his views on Keynesian economics.

Regardless of the financial philosophy, effectiveness of the process must be based on a real reporting and understanding of the facts. When the administration and talking heads go on about the well-being of the economy, they are mostly talking about the stock market that has done very well. Indeed it should with the Federal Reserve printing $86,000,000,000 per month for a program called Qualitative Easing. This level of printing money went on for many months. If you could afford to invest, you did well. The President’s program, instead of distributing wealth to narrow the gap in income between economic classes, actually widened the gap. Turning from the stock market to the business of making and selling things, the real economy, you see a much different picture. Real unemployment is closer to 12 percent than the 5 percent the progressives claim. Employment participation rates are lower than at any time since the 1970s. There are more people on food stamps and welfare now than ever before and that is not just due to the growth in population. Health care costs are growing. Wages are stagnant. Graduating college students cannot find jobs. Student debt is way up. People have given up looking for non-existent jobs. The economy is way below the growth rate needed to sustain services and our national debt. The only measureable that is up is the number of people on welfare. I wonder what the President will say about his commitment to the redistribution of wealth.

The last area to ask him about will be the energy sector. I wonder what he’ll say about the Saudi’s program of pumping oil at a level that is continuing to increase the glut of crude on the market today. Doesn’t he realize the Saudis dumping oil on the energy market is motivated by their need to remain the predominated supplier of the worlds oil and to weaken Iran, Iraq, ISIS, Russia, and the United States? Their strategy is working. Many oil drillers in the United States are gone. They and others like them around the world cannot profitably sell oil much below $60 or $70. Unless the Saudis change their strategy, the current glut of oil may be with us for a few more years.

The Advisor stopped his pacing and his thought process.

I think that is enough for more than one session with the President, he thought, feeling more prepared.

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 212 — THE ADVISOR AND THE PRESIDENT’S “HIDDEN’ LEGACY

Advisor's vault door

The Advisor wasn’t pleased with the way The Council controlled and published his essays. They took far too much time to publish them and many had been censored or slightly rewritten. At times, they said, his essays were so unique that people would wonder about the sources of the essays. The title under which The Council published his essays had grown upon him. EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS wasn’t bad and the web page was very well done. It came right up when he Googled it. The pages of the website made it sound as if a group of elderly scholars sitting around a gentleman’s club had pooled their collective wisdom and published it for the benefit of the American people. The images used called up the deep roots of American history and their fierce rallying around the banner of freedom. Actually, it was better than he could have done. If only they weren’t so fearful and bureaucratic.

He busied himself with tidying up and getting ready for the president’s sudden notice that he would come down after ten o’clock tonight. At ten he heard the coffee finish brewing and a few minutes later his screen showed the president and Chris, his Secret Service escort, coming down the subterranean passageway. Like most people, the president was a creature of habit. He always sat in the same chair, pulled the ashtray a bit closer, and lit his cigarette with the same series of steps, the tapping of the pack to get a single cigarette to pop out of the pack, a few quick taps of the cigarette’s tobacco end, a strike of the wooden matches he liked to use, and the deep satisfied inhale of the blessed nicotine-filled smoke. Only then was he prepared to talk.

“Tonight, I want to go over my accomplishments going into my last phase of the presidency. I know nothing I say will leak out of here, unlike my above-ground world where everyone is thinking ‘spin and leak.’ My first goal was to seize as much of the economy as I could from the private sector and bring it under the control of the central government. The first big move was the Affordable Care Act where I brought nearly 7 or 8 percent of the economy under government control. I chose Cabinet officers who would follow my lead without question and begin to craft and disseminated a deluge of regulations to destroy capitalism and the free market. Nothing as big as my health care move but perhaps more effective due to the incremental steps of agencies like the EPA, Treasury, the IRS, and Energy.

“Most of my moves went unnoticed by most but they have been very effective in inhibiting national energy production. The constant delay of the Keystone Pipeline, even against the wishes of organized labor, has sent a clear message. Now we have to kill the recent surge of natural gas and oil, through fracking and drilling in privately owned land. I don’t want the United States to become energy self-sufficient. Nor do I want to use America’s potential to be a major exporter of natural gas, gasoline or crude oil be used to further American nationalistic foreign policy objectives. I want to end Western domination and change the existing world order. Iran and Russia are pleased and the Sunni old world order is very unhappy. Good!

“My efforts to further spread America’s wealth through international agreements on climate change and international trade agreements needs more pushing but they are progressing. Both of these measures will enhance the strength of the United Nations and world law. I will continue in the next year to support Iran, China, Russia, and Cuba in ways that level the world playing field and re-distribute wealth.

“The last, large, and most important step in diminishing America’s power to project selfish nationalistic goals is still incomplete. Even though I have severely weakened the American military, it is still far too strong. In what’s left of my tenure, I will continue to weaken America’s military so that they cannot do anymore evil in the world.

“You have been very quiet. Any comments?”

“No, Mr. President. I believe you are aware that your goals are unique for an American president in our history.”

“Yes, I am and am proud to be doing what so many have neglected. I’ll be happy to discuss this with you next week. Now I have to go.”

“Goodnight, Mr. President.”

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available nationwide from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 211 — THE ADVISOR’S LETTER TO AMERICANS

The Advisor turned away from his multi-screen display of world events in disgust. It was hard to watch the fall of American prestige and respect in all quarters of the world.

Like it for not, Mr. President, he thought, the American people expect you to be a leader. Leading from behind is only a fiction that obscures the fact nothing is being done, even from behind. What world power, in history, has ever so willingly given up a leadership role? The world may not have always liked the way we used our power, but the vast majority of nations recognized the world was safer when America was willing to be the the policeman when the need was dire.

There is also no leadership in domestic America. Look at the disgrace of the riots in Ferguson and Baltimore. The White House and the Justice Department led the racist riots by both their actions and rhetoric. The only sane thing for individual policemen to do is to avoid aggressive enforcement of the law. To stay out of questionable areas. To not take risks. It is not a matter of teaching people a lesson, it is a matter of the survival of every policeman and his or her job. Who would be willing to take real risks under national, state, and city admininstrations that pander to the mobs and professional race mongers?

Still disgusted, the Advisor turned off his screens that displayed the news and got up from his chair, pacing around his room.

On the foreign scene, what soldier is willing to go to war for a commander-in-chief who not only doesn’t have a bit of military experience but who actually despises the American military and is doing his best to destroy its former effectiveness while he tells lies about his successes? Iran, Russia, the Middle East, China, North Korea, Cuba, Iraq, and Syria have all profited by a feckless exercise of appeasement diplomacy conducted by emissaries who were and are ideally suited to enthusiastically play their assigned feckless appeasement diplomacy role on the world scene. How dumb can they be? A beginner’s understanding of history just before World War II clearly shows appeasement diplomacy leads to war not peace. To make matters worse, most of our once-respected media ignores the truth and supports the slide of American power and respect in the world. Where are the cries for things like justice, peace, truth, and honest leadership instead of a series of big lies told over and over?

Even from my traditional position of being an unbiased advisor to the president, I can not tell him these truths for he already knows them. Our president counts what I call failures as successes. In historical perspective, he is a destroyer not a builder. And from this strange ideology he is leading the charge to transform America. The real problem is not the president. He told us what he was going to do. The problem is the people who voted for him not once, but twice, and still think he and his former Secretary of State are and will be the best for the nation. As a nation and a civilization we are at a tipping point. If we tip much further it will be impossible to stop the decline. When the takers outnumber the givers, the odds are not good.

With nothing else to do, the Advisor decided to make a fresh pot of coffee. He wasn’t sleeping much these days, anyway.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, political solutions, Politics, Progressives, Russia, Shiite

Tagged as America, government, Obama, politics, world affairs, world news

by Barry Kelly | May 30, 2015 · 7:54 am

INSIGHTS 209 –ADVISOR AND A NEW STRATEGY

The Advisor knew the president wanted to talk about domestic policies on his next visit and that would be easy for him. He knew what the president wanted and how he was going about it. The president’s only problem with his domestic policies is that he is running out of time and losing influence in his party, he thought. If you follow the news reports and are intelligent and skeptical enough to read between the lines, it is apparent the president, who is a political genius in the tactic of changing direction and misdirection, is turning to things he can do with or without Congress.

Hence the turn to ISIS, or ISIL, as the president prefers as it enables him to continue denying that the foundation for a radical Muslim state is already in place. The president’s basic plan will remain the same, even if the words change. His policy is to avoid the use of American military or economic power to achieve nationalistic objectives. In his mind, the world has seen enough of American dominance through capitalism and the use of military power to intervene in world events. The president seems to believe that his one great foreign policy or international accomplishment is in the prevention of American power to solve international problems. Like no other leader, foreign or American, he has driven the U.S. out of the Middle East. The remaining bastions of Western presence in the Middle East will gradually dry up and wither away, much like the last castle strongholds of the Crusaders. The president believes a progressive new world order will emerge to create a better life for all the victims of colonialism and racism. This much he has said right to my face in this very room.

The Advisor paused his musings long enough to pour himself a fresh cup of Sumatra roast coffee and sit back down at his desk. He took a long sniff of the fresh brew and sat back in his chair, the mug warm against his hand.

The president is not a dumb man but neither is he a wise one. His strength comes from his deep commitment to the redistribution of wealth and the destruction of American world dominance. His new strategy for ISIS will not be new. Just different words. Nothing in his new strategy will adjust to ground-truth reality, but it will avoid even the slightest offense to Iran. The president knows what many of the Pentagon’s analysts have said, but he has no intentions of following any of their advice.

It is clear many foreign policy and military analysts know how ISIS can be controlled. First, Western statesman have to recognize that the Western creation of Iraq after the fall of the Turkish Empire has failed. Iraq has always been an artificial state held together by vicious and cruel dictatorial leaders. Keeping the Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis individually weak pleased two Western Cold War allies, Turkey and Iran under the Shah. Even today, neither Turkey nor Iran want to see the United States arm and support either the Kurds or the Sunnis. But any American foreign policy that fails to arm and aid the Kurds and Sunnis will fail. The world has changed. Iran is now a deadly enemy and Turkey is becoming more and more driven by a radical Islamic fervor. Both of these old allies fear the establishment on their borders of a Sunni Caliphate made up of major parts of Iraq and Syria .

Rather than arm the Kurds and Sunnis with effective weapons, so far military aid to either of them has been in the form of words, the president will be guided by Iran and Russia’s alliance with Iran and not by what is in America’s interests. Give up on Iraq as a viable nation. Forget about bringing Iran into the family of nations. Let the Kurds and Sunni tribes establish their own borders. Employ American air power at several times the current level and deploy 10,000 combat and support troops. By combining these changes with a real effort to arm the Kurds and move the Sunni tribes away from ISIS by immediate military and economic support could still be successful, but the president would have to turn his back on Iran and follow American strategic goals. That he will not do.

The Advisor shook his head and sighed heavily, then took a long sip from his mug. If only the president would listen, he thought.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, ISIS, Israel, Kurds, political solutions, Russia, Shiite, Sunni

Tagged as Iran, iraq, Kurds, Middle East, Obama, politics, sunnis, turkey

by Barry Kelly | May 3, 2015 · 7:04 am

INSIGHTS 202 — THE ADVISOR AND WHAT’S WITH THE IRAN THING?

The Advisor had worked all week in getting ready for tonight’s discussions with the president. There was a lot to cover.

The entire negotiation process with Iran was filled with false starts, new beginnings, and endless private discussions by various participants.This was going to be a hard session. The Advisor had serious reservations about negotiating with Iran, but he knew the president was dead set on doing some kind of a deal with Iran. But the president had told him he wanted to hear his candid appraisal of the Iran initiative.

A soft bell rang and the Advisor glanced at his hall monitor screen. Sure enough the President and Chris were on their way to the old iron door to his chambers and only 25 minutes late. The president gave his usual murmured greeting and sat down at the conference table in his usual seat. The Advisor poured him a cup of fresh cup of dark roast while the president was lighting a cigarette.

“I know I’m not going to like what you’re going to tell me, but you’re the smartest person I get advice from and you don’t have an agenda. Of all the things I’ve told you over the years, nothing has leaked. You and I have opposing political beliefs but no one hears them except me.”

The Advisor thought, No one hears them but my successors for as long as this nation endures will be able to read them. The president nodded and said, I’ve got 45 minutes, so let’s get started.”

“Mr. President, the Iranians or Persians are a great and proud people. They’ve slipped over the centuries from the pinnacle of being a dominant world power. They want to reclaim their heritage. They don’t have the population or the economic base to be even a regional power. They have correctly analyzed their position and have concluded that becoming a nuclear power is the quickest way to improve their status. Under their religious leadership they will not be redirected. No matter the price, they will pay it. Keeping economic sanctions on will only delay their journey to nuclear status.

“Nothing they say or promise will change their push for nuclear weapons. So you cannot trust them to keep their word. Short of changing the Iranian leadership or very heavy military strikes at their nuclear facilities and military centers nothing you or others can do will stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

“Now for the downside of negotiating with the Iranian leadership. You know better than your White House staff, the political ramifications of the Sunni/Shiite division. Our traditional Middle Eastern allies have been the Sunnis. Our dealings with the Iranians have driven a stake of mistrust between us and the Sunnis that may never be removed. In addition, the Israelis believe America has deceived them. Their trust in America has been seriously eroded.

“The other downside of a deal with the Iranians is that until now we have successfully kept the Russians out of the Middle East. You have already seen the Russians move to sell first line air defense hardware to Iran. More weapon sales will follow. Your European friends will not agree to reimpose economic sanctions. They want Iranian treasure for their goods more than they worry about Iran becoming a nuclear power. They have always been appeasers when faced with a choice between future dangers and the promise of prosperity now.

“One last point. when Iranians get the bomb, they will use it. My time is up.”

“Good. I’ll tell you now, while I agree to some of your analysis, I do not agree with your overall conclusions. My plan is to use Iran to change the world order in a way that will ensure a more peaceful world based on a partnership between nations in a playing field I have leveled. At our next meeting, it will be my turn to talk.”

The president ground out his last cigarette and left.

The above is a fictional account of a president meeting with a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.