Category Archives: Russia

by Barry Kelly | March 4, 2014 · 7:40 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 103

PUTIN-OBAMA FACEOFF

Are Putin’s action in the Ukraine a surprise? I hope not, but for the group of amateurs in this administration, they probably were. Is there a foreign policy expert in the stack of dead wood the president depends on? Certainly not Secretary of State Kerry or Vice President Biden or the departed Mrs. Clinton. Reminds me of the surprise of the Carter White House when the Ayatollah was allowed to enter Iran from Europe. When have deeply committed religious radicals ever established a true democracy with regular free elections? I think the Carter administration was shocked when his followers took over the U.S. Embassy in Teheran and established an Islamic theocracy. When the Russians moved into Afghanistan, he was again surprised.

For centuries, the czars had tried to establish a geo-political foothold in South Asia. Through Afghanistan was the most direct route to a warm-water port and the riches of the sub-continent. Only the power of the British Empire thwarted the Russian plan. The Russians, seeing a weak U.S. president, made their move and thousands of lives were lost to add to the total killed by the Muslim aristocracy in Iran. History holds many keys to the future and weakness invites aggression. It has always been so. Now what about Ukraine?

The Ukraine was part of the great Russian Empire that President Putin wants to restore. Ukraine looks both east and west. To the west are its hopes for a close relationship with Europe to balance the threat from Russia. To the east it has a long border with a powerful nation that has shown its willingness to use its military power to achieve political goals, such as the forcible annexation of a part of the Georgia nation in the era of the Bush presidency. Ukraine’s current leadership knows it cannot afford a conflict with Russia without strong political support from the west.

What are President Putin’s plans? Well, even the Obama administration should understand that the recent upheaval in the Ukraine threatens Russia’s strategic interests. The only warm-water port in the entire Russian nation is in the Ukraine. This port is part of a settlement between Ukraine and Russia. Russia’s entire Black Sea Naval Force calls Sevastopol home. A large portion of the people in the area of Sevastopol are Russian ethnics. President Putin probably felt he had to move to protect his naval forces. The question is will he push to acquire Ukrainian territory beyond the strategic area of Sevastopol? He knows his history. There is not great love between the people of Ukraine and the Russians to the east. When the German panzers pushed into the Ukraine in World War II, many Ukrainians welcomed them as liberators. Some even took up arms and supported the Germans. Unfortunately, for those Ukrainians and the German Army, the German leadership treated the Ukrainians like the other people they had conquered. German cruelty knew no ethnic bounds in their drive to occupy Moscow.

President Obama has few options. One is to know that his plan to reduce the U.S. Army to pre-World War II levels is another revealing sign of his weakness. He should immediately re-think his destruction of American power. Peace has never come from weakness. A strong America is necessary for a path to peace. The progressive party is well on the way to achieving what neither the aggressors of both World Wars and the Cold War could accomplish. Our president is a master of winning elections but he is way out of his league when dealing with a man who is not afraid of power and its use.

If Putin goes beyond the securing of routine access to strategic Russian bases in the Crimea portion of the Ukraine and annexes Ukrainian territory, the Obama administration will maybe learn that words do not count for much in the constant struggle to maintain world peace. Weakness only feeds the actions of dictators. It does nothing in the struggle to contain territorial aggression. The willingness to maintain and use national power when necessary, sets apart real leaders from empty ones. Ronald Reagan was a real leader. Barack Obama is not.

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Filed under Afghanistan, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, political solutions, Politics, Progressives, Putin, Russia

Tagged as foreign policy, Obama, Putin, Russia, ukraine

by Barry Kelly | November 25, 2013 · 6:56 pm

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS-90

From left to right (front): Chamberlain, Daladier, Hitler, Mussolini, and Ciano pictured before signing the Munich Agreement. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

OBAMA’S IRAN

When you badly want a deal, you get a bad deal. In the case of the “Peace in Our Time” appeasement of Iran by the Obama Administration, the President wanted and needed the fasade of a successful negotiation with the radical Islamists who run Iran. He needed a deal for domestic political reasons. Without the plummeting poll numbers about his lack of Presidential qualities exposed by the failing of Obamacare, America would have stayed the course to keep real sanctions on Iran. You see in Obama’s world all issues are domestic issues. He just doesn’t care about foreign affairs unless a world journey provides good photo ops and news bites for the American Press. Obamacare’s many slogans apply here. ‘If you like Iran without nuclear weapons, you can keep it.’

Not hardly. Again some history. When Neville Chamberlain made his infamous deal with Hitler in 1938 he was a hero to every liberal in the world. “Peace in our time” sounded so good. Once you could sit across the table from your adversary everything could be worked out. Except, Hitler was only buying time. Sound Familiar? When he was ready, his Panzers roared across the border into Czechoslovakia and later into Poland. “Peace in Our Time” was over. Chamberlain and the dangers of appeasement were exposed. Millions of lives later, the historical monumental mistake of Chamberlain and his liberal supporters was corrected.

I believe to improve his poll numbers President Obama has positioned himself as the American Chamberlain. Iran has sacrificed years of hardship to pay for the development of nuclear weapons. It is their number one strategic objective. No words by Secretary Kerry or President Obama will deter Iran from its goal of becoming a nuclear power and using that power to dominate the Middle East.

President Obama claims that if Iran doesn’t follow the terms of the agreement, he will ‘crank up’ the sanctions. It will be too late and neither Russia nor China will cooperate. China wants Iranian oil and Russia views Iran as a market for the sale of its weapons. Europe and the rest of the world are tired of the whole process. The time window for sanctions will very soon be over. As it was in Europe in WWII, the Jews will be the first victims. The vows of the Supreme Ayatollah to wipe Israel off the map are not just rhetoric. Hitler’s Mein Kampf wasn’t just a book either.

This is yet another example of the President’s word that no one should trust.

By the author of the Brandon novels. I welcome comments and urge you to pass on this message to your contacts. The above is the result of my own analysis, experience, and beliefs.

There Are A Lot People Comparing Obama’s New Iran Deal With a Significant (and Very Bad) Moment in History (theblaze.com)
Doc’s Talk: The Nuclear Deal With Iran is a Foreign Policy Disaster (docstalk.blogspot.com)
Obama’s Iran Deal: Worse than Munich (conservativebyte.com)
Why Obama’s Iran Nuke Deal Is a Good Thing (frontpagemag.com)

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Filed under Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Israel, Obama, Obamacare, Poland, Russia

Tagged as Adolf Hitler, BarackObama, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Neville Chamberlain, Obama, United States

by starediting | September 9, 2013 · 10:54 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS – ADVISOR 74

WHAT THE RUSSIANS WANT

The Advisor had done some research in the history of Russia’s struggle to compete with British seapower and later the United States. The czars as well as Mr. Putin, who believes he is a czar, understand the need for the Russian fleet to have a warm water port. Without an all-weather port the Russians cannot extend their power much beyond their own borders. The Advisor thought, it is precisely this kind of knowledge the President does not have. Nothing in his background prepared him to understand the real world which is that nations act in their own interest. If you don’t understand this central reality, your foreign policy is composed of reactions to events you really don’t understand. Like it or not, his mission required him to educate as well as advise President Obama.

The Advisor knew the President seldom took his advice but he was enough of a scholar to listen thoughtfully and enough of an ideologue to follow his collectivist doctrine. The President would be down here within the next hour. I’ll ask him if he will allow me to present my research. Right on schedule, the ancient steel clad door opened and the President strode in. “Good evening Mr. President. The coffee is ready. Take what ever seat you want. I did some research this week and, if you will permit, I will give you the bottom lines.”

“Well, I thought your advice was just the result of your eight decades of life. I’m intrigued that you include research. So go ahead.”

“Thank you. Why are the Russians so hard to work with in the disaster we call Syria? Russia has no common border with Syria. Syria has no supply of oil or minerals. They have no exports Russia wants or needs. Yet Russia is sending game-changing weapons to Syria and, if their past behavior is any guide, they have or will also send technicians and weapons specialists to Syria. Putin knows there is no one to stop him. Certainly not any Arab or Persian State. Israel can’t without our help. The Euro powers are too focused on themselves to risk capital and blood for anyone else. I have no special insight to U.S. Russian policy but I do remember you whispering to President Medvedev before Putin took the presidency again, asking him to tell Putin you would have more flexibility after the election. Putin is a Czar. He only understands strength. Your secret message to Medvedev told Putin you were in a weak position. In Syria he believes you will not oppose Russia’s historical push to have a warm water port.

“Without a warm water port their fleet is frozen in, bottled up in the Black Sea or cruising far beyond their supply base for many months of each year. Again there is no proof I know of but the Soviet push into Afghanistan in the 1980s was another step in their bumbling efforts dating back to the Czars to gain a corridor to warm water. Syria has dangled a warm water port in the Mediterranean called Tartous. The Russians have already done significant development projects in this port. They really don’t much care who rules Syria as long as Tartous is firmly in Russian control. The Russians will do whatever is necessary to ensure they do not lose control of this port. They have never been so close in recent history to the control of a warm water port. A Syrian regime friendly to the United States that would exercise real control over Tartous is not acceptable. Putin, today, has no respect for America. He only understands strength and has no use for words that are mere rhetoric.

“There is more at stake in Syria than the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad from Syria. I don’t think your Administration understands the historical power that motivates Putin to capture an all-weather port. That single feat will mark him as the greatest of all Russia’s Czars. A warm water port at no cost in blood or treasure. A remarkable achievement.”

“You’re telling me Russia’s end game in Syria is for a seaport?”

“Yes. Of course, they don’t mind throwing all Western powers out of the Middle East.”

“No one on my team will believe your analysis.”

“Try some military scholars. They will tell you the same thing,” The Advisor said, as the President was getting up to leave. “Mr. President, maybe you need some different people on your team.”

The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to share this on Facebook and to click the “like” button below. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful. Find and connect with the author on Goodreads.

Eight Decades of Insights 73-advisor (factsandfictions.com)
Eight Decades of Insights 65 (factsandfictions.com)

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Filed under Afghanistan, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Medvedev, Obama, Putin, Russia

Tagged as Obama, Russia, Syria, warm water port

by Barry Kelly | July 22, 2013 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 65

LEADING FROM BEHIND–THE ADVISOR

The Advisor was thinking about how forceful he could be in advising President Obama. The subject for his next visit would be the consequences in foreign policy of leading from behind. The President wasn’t a stupid or a cruel man. He was just a man who carried an enormous amount of baggage.

Could anyone walk away from the influences he was subject to in his earlier life? the advisor thought. Some he was personally responsible for, others he had no real choice. Parents from far to the left, several years in a Muslim Madrassi teaching Wahhabism. His father, an anti-colonialist Kenyan, whose family had been persecuted by the British Colonialists. For most of his formidable years he was exposed to radical leftist ideologies. Then, the influence of Ivy League progressives, Saul Alinsky and his radical plan for seizing power, Reverend Wright and his hate America sermons, William Ayers and his terrorist viewpoint and to top it off the ruthless and corrupt school of Chicago politics. The President never personally suffered from his associations and ideology. Therefore, he has no understanding of the consequences of following a revolutionary ideology. It is probably too late now but I must try. I will never knowingly give him bad advice or try to manipulate him. My mission code does not allow it. After all, he was elected twice and could probably win a third term if it were permitted.

The advisor’s musing is interrupted when the flashing red light and soft chiming called him to the phone.

The President arrived a few minutes later at nine o’clock PM. The President strode into the room, greeted the advisor and said, “Let’s get started. I have some extra time and need a cup of your coffee.”

“Mr. President, you look like a man who doesn’t have a care in the world.”

“Today was good day. No one was asking me to do the impossible. Why do my supporters and staff think I should get involved in everything?”

“You are the ‘point of the spear.’ They count on you to give them what they want without understanding that doing nothing is also, at times, a good action plan. There, a perfect opening for my talk. Remember, you told me to pick the topic. So I’m going to talk about the concept of leading from behind. Please interrupt at any time. I’m going to use foreign affairs as a backdrop for my advice.

“You are in the fifth year of your Presidency. That is long enough for you to own America’s position in the world. You will not like some of my statements. But I will assure you, the the facts are correct. My analysis may be faulty because I project it into the future where no one can be absolutely sure they are right. First our main adversary, Russia. They are stronger now than they were before your election. Today their fleet is in the Mediterranean, something that was inconceivable in the last several decades. They have nearly secured a warm water port in the Med, a Russian goal going back to the czars. They failed in Afghanistan to find a corridor to warm water. Russia’s ability to project power has been limited for centuries because they lacked a port with year round operations capability. The Syrian port of Tartous is the payoff for their support to Assad. Sure, they enjoy threatening American and Israeli interests in the Middle East, but Tartous is the real goal.

“To see more clearly the Russian move into the Middle East, imagine a monopoly game where the winner gains areas of influence and the losers, well, lose. You failed to negotiate a status of forces agreement in Iraq where it was in no one’s interest for the U.S. to abandon the country. Certainly sectarian violence would be lessened if we had a seat at the table. Iran could not supply Syria forces through or over Iraq. Iran could not threaten Iraq if we had maintained a presence in Iraq. Iran would have a harder time supplying Hezbollah and using that force to control Lebanon, another possibility for Russia to exploit to acquire a warm water port. Our anti-ballistic missiles on the ground in Iraq could bring more defense against an Iranian attack on Israel or the Sunni Middle East. ‘Leading from Behind’ policies have resulted in our loss of space supremacy, ABM land-based systems, and talks about unilaterally cutting force size and our inventor of ballistic missiles that have kept us from a nuclear war since WWII. Our loss of influence in Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and Pakistan is not a foreign affairs victory. Leading from behind means you are and will remain behind.

“Leading from behind does not win respect in the world. Your monopoly board does not look good. Putin has no respect for you as leader because he sees you weakening America and, therefore, believes you are not someone he should worry about. Most of the world respects power and distrusts weakness. To world leaders words don’t matter. Words without action are invisible. To start with I advise you to say less and do more. You can project American power without following the old colonial pattern you hate so much.”

The President puts his cup down, grinds out his cigarette.

The Advisor says, “Yes. I have known ever since you sent the bust of Winston Churchill back to England. Your constant concern is for the little nation, the poor people, the Muslim nations over the Colonial West. If you achieve your goal of leveling America and the world, you’ll destroy both and civilization of all will suffer. But that is for another time.”

The President gets up and strides to the door. He looks back as he leaves and says, “You can’t be right.”

The Advisor says, “Goodnight Mr.President,” to the sound of an automatic locking door.

He thought, that went well.

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. http://www.factsandfictions.com

The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to pass on this blog or parts of it to your contacts and friends. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful.

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS #24

OBAMA’S WALL

President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney exchange views during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. They interrupt each other, bicker and ignore the moderator. Romney poses his own questions and demands answers. Thats not true, Obama huffs over and over. This is presidential conduct? It was squirm-inducing for some viewers. But the candidates have little to lose by cranking up the heat in a tight face, where the focus is on persuading the undecided and firing up their fans.

Throughout history, totalitarian regimes have erected brick and mortar walls as well as more subtle barriers to the flow of information. Often the walls and barriers are to prevent those outside the walls from seeing what the regime does not have, more than to protect what they have, from prying eyes. The Soviet Union was certainly ultra-sensitive to protecting their shortcomings when they built walls to hide behind. Outside their missile program and other militarized areas, the Soviet Union was a wet paper tiger. What they did not have in the 1970s was truly astounding. I spent two years in the Soviet Union from 1973 to 1975. I left being convinced they were a dangerous enemy, not because of their strength, but because of their weakness. Fear of the growing power of the West might have influenced them to strike before the gap widened further.

President Obama, with his totalitarian approach to governing and arrogance that only he and his Chicago mafia know what is right for America, have erected walls to hide mistakes and weakness as well as denying anyone outside the walls to see what has not been done. The president’s fiscal policy is non-existent. His military strategy for an increasingly dangerous world is not even a work in progress. His plan for job creation, beyond hiring 100,000 more teachers, infrastructure improvements, and green energy jobs, has never been seen. Unemployment numbers are seriously flawed. His energy policy is beyond understanding. He is not a brilliant or even a bright man and must hide his deficiencies, at least those David Axelrod cannot fix. Now there is a brilliant political strategist struggling with a hard-to-manage pupil. I cannot believe Axelrod told the president to cover up the Benghazi fiasco. In my opinion, Obama doesn’t even realize the importance Americans place on the protection of its fellow citizens, especially those sent in harm’s way without the tools to work and survive.

The presidential debates are beginning to tear down the walls erected to hide the failed promises, fantastic accumulation of debt, inept foreign policy, ignorance of economic development, amateurish military strategy, and the extreme left-wing objectives. You see a debater who is far better at displaying arrogance, anger, petulance, denial, and how-dare-you question me than he is at presenting a rational defense of his record or a cogent plan for the next four years. Don’t expect things to improve, no matter where your political allegiance resides. What you see is what you have. If you are a voter, push past the words and carefully consider if you and the nation can stand another four years of government behind the walls. Pull the walls down. Let the daylight in.

www/factsandfictions.com The author of the Jack Brandon Thriller Series.