Category Archives: Shiite

by Barry Kelly | May 8, 2015 · 7:47 am

INSIGHTS 204 — The Advisor’s Core Facts of the Middle East

The Advisor had no trouble putting together the realities of the Middle East, but he spent extra time deciding how to present a picture that would not cause the president to walk out on him during his presentation. The president was intelligent but had a very thin skin for such an accomplished political campaigner. Perhaps, he thought, it is because the truth had no place on his campaign trails. On the campaign, the ends for him clearly justified whatever needed to be done or said to weaken the opposition. The president had taken on board the Saul Alinsky rules totally. The issue is never the issue is his guidance for all his policies and speeches. The man is remarkably consistent and, for his followers, he is brilliant. He can avoid and ignore issues that any previous president would have believed he had to take on.

As he mused over his dilemma, the Advisor worked to stay within his historic guidelines. He had to advise his president to the best of his ability. The fact that he thought this president was clearly focused on destroying the political and economic structure he inherited was a problem, for his responsibility was to advise the president in his role to protect and improve the life of its citizens. If he could be just a little dishonest, he could rationalize that the president wanted to improve America. But in the process of socialization, great harm would be done. Freedom and the ability to rise above the norm would be lost as long as socialism, communism, or progressivism prevailed. He just couldn’t, or more honestly, wouldn’t follow that path.

At that moment, the Advisor’s only phone rang, with the only person he ever spoke to, outside the president, on the other line. Chris Hammond, the chief of the President’s Secret Service detail, said the president would late, somewhere near midnight. Good, he thought, that will give me time for a nap, a shower, and a frozen Indian curry dinner.

It was almost midnight when the Advisor put on a fresh pot of Sumatra dark roast. He was just getting ready to pour himself a cup when the faint alarm sounded and the president entered.

“Welcome, Mr. President. You must be able to smell fresh coffee brewing.”

The president chuckled. “When the coffee is as good as yours, I could smell it for miles, even when it is coming from an underground cave. Your existence is even more constrained than mine. I suspect you have learned to take pleasure in small things.”

“Yes, I have. That is very perceptive of you. There doesn’t seem to be much instant gratification in your life.”

“No, there isn’t. And I think I won’t get much in the next hour or so. Shall we begin? Surprise me.” The president sat back in his seat at the conference table, a cigarette already between his fingers.

“First, some basics. You know most of these but they are important in any discussion of the Middle East, no matter the subject. The people of the Middle East have a past they are proud of and a present they are not. Tribal allegiance is still a very important factor. Mobility up the social chain is much harder than it is in America where education is the key to improved status. In the Middle East it is religion and revolution. For reasons beyond my understanding Asian and Middle Eastern people have a very long and usually patient view of the time/progress ratio. Americans are only comfortable with instant gratification plus a decade.

“Then, there is the history of religious wars and colonialism when troops from the West with superior weapons and technology subjugated people of the Middle East and attempted to impose Western culture and even religion in the conquered areas. As a result the people of this historic crossroad both admire and hate the West with its superior technology.

“After World War I, diplomats from the West drew national boundaries that failed to consider tribal loyalties, religious affiliations, and the hunger of people for their own homeland. The situation of present-day Kurds is an example. The destruction of Saddam Hussain’s Iraqi ’empire’ created a vacuum that the Iranians are filling after noting the West had abandoned the region.

“Iran is the dominant single nation in the Middle East today. For decades, they have been working to take control of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen by creating and funding Shiite terrorists groups in all these nations. The West has been ineffective in thwarting the Iranian drive to hegemony in the Middle East. Now the Iranians want to solidify their gains and they need to be a nuclear power to do so. Unless they are presented with strong military and economic resistance, they will not be deterred in achieving nuclear status with an ICBM capability. They cannot be trusted to honor any agreement or treaty that stands in the way. Nor will they stop the funding and equipping of proxy terrorist organization to further their dominance of the Middle East. Nothing in Iran will change for the better in Western terms without a regime change. I know you have other reasons for negotiating with the Ayatollahs but there will be a terrible price to pay in human terms.”

The president sat still for a moment, then took a final drag on his cigarette before grinding it down on the table. “There were some surprises but you gave the speech I expected. I have to go, but this is interesting. I’ll give my response at one of our next meetings.” He left without another word or without a look back, per usual.

The Advisor found himself already impatient to hear the president’s response.

The above is a fictional account of a president meeting with a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 202 — THE ADVISOR AND WHAT’S WITH THE IRAN THING?

The Advisor had worked all week in getting ready for tonight’s discussions with the president. There was a lot to cover.

The entire negotiation process with Iran was filled with false starts, new beginnings, and endless private discussions by various participants.This was going to be a hard session. The Advisor had serious reservations about negotiating with Iran, but he knew the president was dead set on doing some kind of a deal with Iran. But the president had told him he wanted to hear his candid appraisal of the Iran initiative.

A soft bell rang and the Advisor glanced at his hall monitor screen. Sure enough the President and Chris were on their way to the old iron door to his chambers and only 25 minutes late. The president gave his usual murmured greeting and sat down at the conference table in his usual seat. The Advisor poured him a cup of fresh cup of dark roast while the president was lighting a cigarette.

“I know I’m not going to like what you’re going to tell me, but you’re the smartest person I get advice from and you don’t have an agenda. Of all the things I’ve told you over the years, nothing has leaked. You and I have opposing political beliefs but no one hears them except me.”

The Advisor thought, No one hears them but my successors for as long as this nation endures will be able to read them. The president nodded and said, I’ve got 45 minutes, so let’s get started.”

“Mr. President, the Iranians or Persians are a great and proud people. They’ve slipped over the centuries from the pinnacle of being a dominant world power. They want to reclaim their heritage. They don’t have the population or the economic base to be even a regional power. They have correctly analyzed their position and have concluded that becoming a nuclear power is the quickest way to improve their status. Under their religious leadership they will not be redirected. No matter the price, they will pay it. Keeping economic sanctions on will only delay their journey to nuclear status.

“Nothing they say or promise will change their push for nuclear weapons. So you cannot trust them to keep their word. Short of changing the Iranian leadership or very heavy military strikes at their nuclear facilities and military centers nothing you or others can do will stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

“Now for the downside of negotiating with the Iranian leadership. You know better than your White House staff, the political ramifications of the Sunni/Shiite division. Our traditional Middle Eastern allies have been the Sunnis. Our dealings with the Iranians have driven a stake of mistrust between us and the Sunnis that may never be removed. In addition, the Israelis believe America has deceived them. Their trust in America has been seriously eroded.

“The other downside of a deal with the Iranians is that until now we have successfully kept the Russians out of the Middle East. You have already seen the Russians move to sell first line air defense hardware to Iran. More weapon sales will follow. Your European friends will not agree to reimpose economic sanctions. They want Iranian treasure for their goods more than they worry about Iran becoming a nuclear power. They have always been appeasers when faced with a choice between future dangers and the promise of prosperity now.

“One last point. when Iranians get the bomb, they will use it. My time is up.”

“Good. I’ll tell you now, while I agree to some of your analysis, I do not agree with your overall conclusions. My plan is to use Iran to change the world order in a way that will ensure a more peaceful world based on a partnership between nations in a playing field I have leveled. At our next meeting, it will be my turn to talk.”

The president ground out his last cigarette and left.

The above is a fictional account of a president meeting with a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Eight Decades of Insights, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Israel, political solutions, Russia, Shiite, Sunni

Tagged as advisor, America, Barack Obama, Iran, negotiations, President Obama

by Barry Kelly | March 6, 2015 · 7:39 am

INSIGHTS 193 — TRANSFORMING THE WORLD ORDER

When Senator Barack Obama convinced a majority of American voters to elect him president, he made no secret of what he was planning to do. He has worked hard at transforming America and has gone about as far as he can go, once the opposition captured both the Senate and the House. He will still make a few more gains using the executive power of the president, both lawful and unlawful. The big gains like Obamacare, immigration, internet control, killing coal, slowing down oil and natural gas exploration, over-regulating the economy, and under funding the military are history. This is no conspiracy theory. The man is doing what he said he would: redistributing American wealth. We just weren’t listening.

The Obama push to enact a carbon tax due to man-made climate change was and is a tactic to redistribute wealth from the industrial nations to the have-not nations, a big step in making all nations equal. I think his end game for domestic America is to weaken our economy and military power so America can never again be a dominant power and a threat to a new international equality among nations.

Transforming America domestically is only half of the progressive dream. The other half, and perhaps the most challenging, is the transformation of the old world order. I believe President Obama has very strong anti-colonial beliefs. Remember his father’s family suffered under British colonialism in Kenya. Obama was only in the White House a short time before he formerly sent a bust of Winston Churchill back to Great Britain. Why not just store it in the White House?

All the past progressive isms such as communism and socialism had powerful international programs to spread their beliefs. The goals of today’s progressivism are more invasive, yet better concealed. I can find no logical or American national interest to explain why President Obama has so persistently pursued a relationship with Iran. What little we know about the Obama/Kerry negotiating, is hard to connect with an effort to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. This is a country that is the number-one sponsor of terrorism in the world. Its top leaders have stated they intend to wipe Israel off the map. If their secret efforts to develop a nuclear capability is for peaceful reasons, why would they have a parallel program to develop ICBMs and maintain such a close relationship with North Korea?

If a U.S. president wanted to transform the existing world order, including the Sunni Muslim world order, Iran would be an ideal tool to use. Iran’s foreign policy objectives, if achieved, would destroy the existing world order. The Middle East would be dominated by Iran. They now control or have significant influence in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and Lebanon. If their military is successful in defeating ISIS and/or occupying a large part of Iraq. They will keep whatever Iraqi or Syrian territory they dominate by force of arms. The Iranian empire that would emerge from wars with the Sunni nations and their Western allies will establish a new world order. It wouldn’t be the first great Iranian Empire.

To give Iran full room to maneuver, President Obama had to pull American and Western troops out of Iraq and resist sending them back anywhere in the Middle East. (Can you imagine either ISIS or Iran carving up Iraq, if America had left a sizable combat capable force in Iraq with an U.S.-controlled airbase? No way.) Therefore, using that rational, he had to get U.S. forces out as soon as possible and push negotiations with Iran that would clear the way for them to have the bomb.

Israel and all the rest of our current allies and friends in the Middle East would vanish in clashes with Iran and its subject states. The dream of the progressives for the last century would finally be achieved. The new world order, no longer dominated by the West, would now reign with equality between nations. A much better world, they believe, for all people. A ridiculous conspiracy? A progressive pipe dream? Never happen? That is what I thought about the transformation of America that is still unfolding. Does anyone have a better explanation? Comments welcome.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “ISIS,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, will be out in March.

INSIGHTS 188 — GET OUT OF THE IRAQI BOX

If we had a non-ideologue who was also competent in world affairs as a president and a Congress that could forget about itself and get on with passing legislation the nation needs, then the mess in the Middle East would not be so hard to solve.

The problem is that it requires thinking outside the box and that means hitting the reset button on traditional beliefs. For one, policymakers must forget about Iraq being a nation. It never really was. It is just what some Western diplomats called the space between the lines they drew when the Turkmen Empire fell after World War I. There are three very large groups of people in the space labeled Iraq. Sunni tribes, Shiite tribes, and the Kurdish people.

Their customs, language, and religious beliefs are different. For the only time he was ever right, in my estimate, Vice President Joe Biden was right when he suggested during the height of the Iraq war that there were really three different groups in Iraq and each should have their own territory/nation. Of course, his timing was way off. Iraq could have continued as a nation if American forces backed up the Shiite-dominated government, but that was only a temporary fix. Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds are never going to live in the same tent without some power forcing them to do so.

The solution to the ISIS problem is for America to recognize reality. That means paying no attention to the State Department or other so-called bookish Middle Eastern pundits. The Kurds have no use for ISIS. Send them the arms they need, which, despite the Obama talk, we have never done, and the Kurds will fight. They don’t need great numbers of America’s soldiers, just some Special Forces and air support. Kurdistan has been a Kurdish dream for more than 100 years. We aren’t sending them the arms they need and want because Iran wouldn’t like that. Obama wants a deal with Iran so badly, he is willing to let the foes of ISIS be denied the freedom of living under a government of their own people. Turkey also doesn’t want to see us arm the Kurds, but the establishment of Kurdistan would reduce Kurdish attacks on Turkish territory and may bring them around, especially if we really support the anti-Assad forces in Syria.

Many of the Sunni tribes in Iraq would break clear of any support to ISIS, if they were confident the end game would give them their own land and their own national identity. They, too, will fight. They supported our forces by siding with America against al-Qaeda. In simple terms, that takes care of Iraq from Baghdad north with a few adjustments. Different lines on the map.

Remember, there is a past history of lines drawn. This time the lines would coincide with linguistic, ethnicities, and religious beliefs. The Shiites would have the area south of Baghdad where the majority of their people and religious shrines abide. Distribution of oil revenues can be done but it will be a bit sticky and may require a multi-national solution.

Iran won’t like this approach and neither will the Obama administration. Israel would support this approach as long as the United States kept Iran’s ayatollahs from annexing part of current Iraq as Putin has done in Ukraine. The only hurdles standing in the way of such a comprehensive solution is Obama’s infatuation with the Iranians and old world thinking in the State Department and Pentagon. The big upside is that Muslims would be taking care of their radical Islamic extremists with a minimum of American blood and treasure.

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon thriller/suspense novels and “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an e-book, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Another analytical book on the transforming process, “Insights: Stepping Stones to Tyranny,” is now published and available in paperback at $9.95 and on nook and kindle at $6.99. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. “Quiet Justice” a new novel dealing with ISIS in America will be out by early March.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, ISIS, Israel, Kurds, Obama, oil, political solutions, Putin, Shiite, Sunni, Terrorism

by Barry Kelly | October 1, 2014 · 7:30 am

INSIGHTS 160: FACTS ON THE GROUND

While the president and his administration are pointing fingers of blame at everyone and everything but themselves, let’s look at some ground truths.

The Obama administration could have had a Status of Forces of Agreement in Iraq to protect our troops from being charged, arrested, and tried in Iraqi courts. All that is required is for us to leave a mobile Army Division augmented by its supporting logistical units, air support, selected combat teams, and Special Forces in a U.S.-controlled base strategically located in Iraq. Prime Minister al-Maliki was in no position to follow his Iranian guidance and refuse. We could have replaced him. Sometimes the development of a new democracy needs a little forceful guidance.

When Obama pulled out all our troops, the training of the Iraqi Army with critical American combat support had reached a point where it could have defended Iraqi territory. Without American boots and eyes on the ground to detect and stop al-Maliki from critically weakening the Iraqi Army by replacing most Sunni and Kurdish officers with Shiite replacements, the Iraqi Army was no longer the force America trained. It had no chance against the ISIS invasion. al-Maliki’s leadership destroyed any faint hopes the Sunnis and Kurds had in sharing Iraq’s resources and having a real say in the governing of the country.

The powerful Sunni tribes that fought with U.S. forces to destroy al-Qaeda in Iraq are not going to fight to defend a corrupt Shiite government in Baghdad. Many of these Sunnis joined ISIS as the better choice for them. Some of the Sunnis trained by American forces may well be fighting with ISIS now. They only thing we can offer them to change sides is the promise of their own Sunni nation with no ties to a Shiite government located somewhere south of Baghdad.

The Kurds and their Peshmerga forces are good fighters. They will fight to the death to defend their people and their land. They will not defend the Shiite regime in Baghdad, no matter the name of the prime minister. For many decades, the Kurds have wanted control of their historical homeland. They have fought the Turks, Iranians, and Iraqis as far back as their oral history. American arms and supplies sent to the Kurds through Baghdad will never reach Kurdistan. Out of this chaos the Kurds are betting they have a good chance of winning their freedom. But they will need our help. Without assurances of a free Kurdistan, they will not fight ISIS forces very far from their own borders.

Iran is the biggest danger in the region. Their intent is to development nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. We don’t know when it will happen, only that it will. Probably during President Obama’s time in office. The mindset of the current Iranian Islamic autocracy is that when they have nuclear weapons, they will use them.

Here again, the president holds views that have no basis in reality. He even has a secretary of state who shares his view of peace through negotiations even when the other side only demands instead of negotiating. It is a one-sided negotiation. Iran doesn’t want ISIS on its doorstep but will not change its focus on the development of nuclear weapons. Iran does not want to be involved in a punishing ground war with ISIS. The Iraqi Shiites will be protected by Iran and become an Iranian puppet pseudo state.

The Obama administration could have prevented the ISIS crisis if it had been more interested in the reality of foreign affairs rather than using inaction to create a make-believe, no-fault-of-Obama’a world. Inaction led to pulling all our troops out of Iraq and turning victory into defeat. Inaction led to the civil war in Syria from spreading into Iraq. Either the Obama Administration did not know or ignored indications al-Maliki was destroying the fabric of the Iraqi nation by cutting the Sunnis and the Kurds out of their share of oil revenue and a voice in the running of the national government, creating a fertile environment for ISIS forces.

The rate of training 5,000 fighters a year in Saudi Arabia to serve as ground troops is not going to work. It creates the illusion of action but is not going to be effective. NATO countries and Sunni coalition members need to field a force of at least 20,000 combat troops, augmented by as many regional fighters as we can recruit, and declare all of Syria and Iraq as a no-fly zone for military aircraft. With the right approach the Sunni tribes we can cut them out of the ISIS recruitment pool and set up a Sunni government to rival ISIS. To do that, President Obama has to recognize the Baghdad government is over and to stop negotiating unimportant legalistic details with a government that will soon be fleeing south. He also needs to get over his anti-colonial hangups about the alleged misuse of America military power in foreign lands. It is not unusual to hear liberal Americans refer to our efforts in Iraq in the Bush years as the “occupation of Iraq.” This is the epitome of “hate America” thinking. We all deserve a better legacy than that espoused by progressives.

Written by the author of “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an ebook, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. If you think this message is important, please share it.