Tag Archives: Iran

by Barry Kelly | July 12, 2014 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 126

WHEN TRUST FAILS

Forget for a moment about your biases, whether you’re pro- or anti-Israel, and look at the options the prime minister of Israel has in this growing conflict. He has no good options. He can’t count on the United States to keep the rest of the Arab countries out of the conflict. He must take action. He doesn’t have the luxury of doing nothing but talk. Rockets are falling on Israeli population centers. He knows, as everyone does, that the rockets are being fired from the Gaza Strip by Hamas, a recognized terrorist organization. It wasn’t very far in the past that Israel pulled out of the Gaza Strip at urging from the West that has struggled, painfully and ineffectively, to establish peace in the Middle East. A peace that the respective combatants don’t believe is possible. Both sides present goals that the opponents are not willing to offer.

Israel wants its Arab neighbors to recognize its right to exist as a nation state, more or less with existing boundaries. The Muslims want Israel to retreat to borders prior to the 1967 war. President Obama has stated the 1967 boundaries should be the starting point for negotiations. Israel believes the resulting Israeli nation would be untenable militarily and economically. Hamas and its West Bank partner would accept those boundaries as a starting point but at the same time render the whole process meaningless by their refusal to formally recognize Israel’s right to exist, regardless of any border. The main player, barely behind the scenes, Iran, has stated repeatedly it intends to wipe Israel off the map. Iran, a Muslim Shia state, funds, arms, and supports Hamas and Hezbollah, even though Hamas is Sunni while Hezbollah is predominately a Shiite organization. Without the aid and support of Iran and formerly Syria, neither group could survive.

Okay, that is the back story. What has changed?

The relationship between the American president and Israel has changed dramatically. Israel heard President Obama’s pro-Arab bias loud and clear. His disrespect of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the latter’s visits to America was off the charts. Israel has realized it can no longer count on American support or the word of its leader.

When the trust of America that Israel could count on previously disappeared, their options became more limited. When Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah, who also heard our president speak, no longer believe America is a player on the world scene their options increased.

The might of the United States is off the both the field of arms and the negotiating table. If there is to be peace in the Middle East, it will have to come from the Sunni powers that do not want war and the economic disruption that comes with it. Let us hope that the next administration will revert to supporting our only democratic ally in the region.

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Tagged as America, conflict, current-events, Iran, Islam, Israel, Middle East, Muslim, Netanyahu, Obama, shia, Shiite

by Barry Kelly | July 8, 2014 · 7:31 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 125

NEW MAP NEEDED

Put your old map of the Middle East in the pile of historical documents. For a hundred years, the national boundaries of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon followed the contours of the lines diplomats drew to show the demise of the Turkish Empire. Their inked lines paid little or no mind to the impact those lines would have on language groups, cultural and religious realities, and tribal territories.

Iraq is not now and never has been a nation with the common things that make a nation, a nation. Instead, it worked around religious animosities, language differences, and conflicting tribal affiliations. The work around was only possible due to the harsh policies of a Sunni aristocracy that had no hesitation about using brutal tactics to subjugate Shia and Kurdish minorities. The Kurds have wanted and fought for their own nation for decades. At times they have sought Western support only to be betrayed time after time. The Shia are pulled eastward to the strong Persian and Shia state of Iran, the same state that the Sunni leadership in Iraq fought a brutal war with in the 1980s. During that war, poison gas was used against the Iranians. Saddam Hussein was an equal dispenser of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). He also used poison gas on the Shia and the Kurds. Only ruthless cruelty and fear kept Iraq a nation.

Vice President Joe Biden, who almost got nothing right in his entire political career unless he copied it from someone else, stumbled on the right solution at the wrong time when he proposed dividing Iraq into Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish areas, provinces, or whatever. It was not to happen. His solution was too far outside the box for most of us.

President Obama made all the wrong moves and gave the wrong signals when he took power and pulled all our forces out of Iraq. But let’s be fair. The only way for Iraq to exist as a nation was to put a ruthless Sunni dictator back in power. That wasn’t going to happen. In its wisdom, the Bush Administration destroyed the Sunni-led Iraqi Army and ruling political party, clearing the way for weak Shia leaders to win or manipulate a democratic voting process that prepared the path for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to run a Shia regime that looked eastward to Iran for support and guidance, turning Iraq into an Iranian province.

Century after Western Diplomats drew ink lines to create Iraq and Syria. The tribes are re-drawing them in blood. These borders may last.

— Barry Kelly (@factsfictions80) June 30, 2014

Our president, who has a strong Sunni bias, knew he could not provide real military support to assist a Shia faction to battle a Sunni force. So all the hand-wringing over the number and kind of troops sent now to Iraq and what the president should do is wasted. Iraq is history. Now we need to seek common goals among the Sunnis and Kurds.

Either way, this is a perfect issue for President Obama to follow his mantra, “the issue is never the issue.” He never tries to solve issues anyway, he only uses them to destroy the opposition. In Iraq, doing nothing is close to being the perfect solution. The Republicans will find some way to use the Iraq issue against themselves.

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 117

WHAT IS A PROGRESSIVE?

The first check is: did you vote twice for Obama?

The first vote I understand. We all wanted change and many were willing to take a chance.

The second time is different. After seeing the president’s actions and listening to his teleprompter for four years and if you still wanted a second term for him, you are more than a moderate Democrat. You, my friend, are a progressive. You don’t agree? Okay, let’s run through some indicators.

You believe growing the size and power of the federal government is a good thing. You knew Obama would continue growing the size of government and gathering more power into the executive branch, ignoring the fundamental Constitutional powers granted to Congress. You accept having non-elected government bureaucrats make decisions impacting our lives rather than the people elected to decide on economic and environmental issues. Did you want the president and his cabinet to decide which laws to enforce and which to ignore? Do you feel good about the politicalization of the civil service, especially the IRS discriminating against conservative groups? Do you believe President Obama is managing a transparent governing process? Have you recognized the cover ups in the cases of the “fast and furious” gun running to drug gangs, the Benghazi affair where Americans were refused help and left to die in a terrorist attack, the failure to improve care for veterans in the five years of the Obama Administration, the IRS unlawful acts?

All presidents make mistakes, but have you heard the president’s lies on Obamacare, Benghazi, the IRS, the VA scandal, on budget issues, clean energy, climate change caused by humans, foreign policy blunders and wire tapping of journalists? Do you recognize he is always waiting for his investigation to be completed but never accepts that he is the problem and never fixes anything? He is in charge. The buck is supposed to stop in the Oval Office. Not here. It just picks up speed on its way to someone else.

Here are some fundamental beliefs progressives hold dear:

Government spending is a primary cause of a growing economy;
High taxes and constant regulation do not hamper economic growth;
Increasing the minimum wage stimulates the economy;
An intelligent elite knows best what the people need;
Voter I.D. is discriminatory and discourages voter turnout;
Government bureaucrats are good managers of the VA, and will be good managers of Obamacare;
Redistribution of income is the primary purpose of big government;
Citizens have no rights to guns regardless of the Second Amendment;
If the cause is just, the ends justify the means.

The president has been depending on a highly partisan media and voter support that blindly follows his socialistic agenda to protect him. If you can’t agree with most of this, you are a progressive and that is your right. But don’t expect your individual freedom and rights to survive. They never do in any socialist, one-party political system where the socialist elites are always in power and the opposition is referred to as the rebels or terrorists.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, class warfare, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, Obamacare, Progressives

Tagged as Benghazi, Iran, Obama

by Barry Kelly | February 14, 2014 · 7:51 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 98

IRAN AND THE BOMB

Let’s begin with a few facts the Obama administration seems to overlook.

It is hard to believe any White House could assemble a more naive team that can’t even find the ball, let alone watch it. You don’t even need inside information to tell you where to start. It is all there for all of the former players now pacing on the sidelines. Why should Iran want a nuclear weapon? Not a bad starting point. The only friends the Shia Moslem nation of Iran has are those like Russia, China, North Korea, and France who view them as a lucrative market for all their wares and as an anti-American supplier of oil. They have no friends among the Sunni Moslem nations. The Iranians fought a long and bloody war against Iraq when it was under Sunni rule. Today, decades later that bloody war is still remembered by Iraqis who lost family members in the fighting.

Iran’s exporting of terrorism through its puppets Hamas and Hezbollah has alienated Lebanon. Iran is hated by the Israelis and pays for its uneasy partnership with Syria. Iran is without loyal allies. That is a weak position from which to dominate the Middle East, unless they become a nuclear power. That’s is their number one strategic goal. How can anyone think they will negotiate away their top priority national security goal?

A military strike by Israel or the United States would destroy or set back Iran’s time table to achieve nuclear status. The sanctions, before the Obama administration eased off on them, were causing hardships in Tehran. Not all Iranians want to make sacrifices to achieve nuclear weapons. For internal political reasons the religious leaders decided to roll out a strategy of negotiating to buy time and get concessions from the West on the crippling sanctions. This strategy had worked before. Why not dial back the anti-American rhetoric and pretend to negotiate on their nuclear program?

Of course the Obama administration jumped at the bait and became the leader of the “let’s negotiate” flock. He thinks it makes sense to use all possible diplomatic endeavors before resorting to any military action. That is generally true but not when it is obvious that the other side is playing you. Iran is so confident that the Obama administration is below the paper tiger level that they have blatantly tested an ICBM capable of destroying Israel and hitting several American targets. Big clue. Yes! No nation has ever spent treasure on developing a long-range ballistic missile unless they were positive they could mate it with a nuclear weapon. There is no other rational explanation. Yet our president is resisting his own party’s effort to ready additional sanctions to ensure Iran lives up to the agreement.

Officials from the administration and learned talking heads will tell us that it will be some time before Iran can weaponize a nuclear device. Don’t believe that fairy tale. North Korea and other nations that are not admirers of the U.S. and Israel would sell the Iranians whatever they need in a heartbeat.

To sum up the administration’s position: They are confident that even though the Iranians have put much treasure and time into developing a nuclear weapon they can be talked out of completing the task. After buying hundreds of centrifuges, building underground facilities to house them, and developing long-range missiles, how can anyone believe they can stop Iran’s long, expensive effort to acquire nuclear weapons by negotiating from a weak position? The administration’s followers will point with pride to the Iranian destruction of highly enriched uranium. This not true. The Iranians didn’t destroy anything, they merely converted the enriched uranium into another form that can easily be reversed.

Don’t be surprised if the Iranians test their bomb while Secretary Kerry is having tea in Damascus.

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics

Tagged as Iran, Islam, Israel, Middle East, United States

by Barry Kelly | November 25, 2013 · 6:56 pm

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS-90

From left to right (front): Chamberlain, Daladier, Hitler, Mussolini, and Ciano pictured before signing the Munich Agreement. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

OBAMA’S IRAN

When you badly want a deal, you get a bad deal. In the case of the “Peace in Our Time” appeasement of Iran by the Obama Administration, the President wanted and needed the fasade of a successful negotiation with the radical Islamists who run Iran. He needed a deal for domestic political reasons. Without the plummeting poll numbers about his lack of Presidential qualities exposed by the failing of Obamacare, America would have stayed the course to keep real sanctions on Iran. You see in Obama’s world all issues are domestic issues. He just doesn’t care about foreign affairs unless a world journey provides good photo ops and news bites for the American Press. Obamacare’s many slogans apply here. ‘If you like Iran without nuclear weapons, you can keep it.’

Not hardly. Again some history. When Neville Chamberlain made his infamous deal with Hitler in 1938 he was a hero to every liberal in the world. “Peace in our time” sounded so good. Once you could sit across the table from your adversary everything could be worked out. Except, Hitler was only buying time. Sound Familiar? When he was ready, his Panzers roared across the border into Czechoslovakia and later into Poland. “Peace in Our Time” was over. Chamberlain and the dangers of appeasement were exposed. Millions of lives later, the historical monumental mistake of Chamberlain and his liberal supporters was corrected.

I believe to improve his poll numbers President Obama has positioned himself as the American Chamberlain. Iran has sacrificed years of hardship to pay for the development of nuclear weapons. It is their number one strategic objective. No words by Secretary Kerry or President Obama will deter Iran from its goal of becoming a nuclear power and using that power to dominate the Middle East.

President Obama claims that if Iran doesn’t follow the terms of the agreement, he will ‘crank up’ the sanctions. It will be too late and neither Russia nor China will cooperate. China wants Iranian oil and Russia views Iran as a market for the sale of its weapons. Europe and the rest of the world are tired of the whole process. The time window for sanctions will very soon be over. As it was in Europe in WWII, the Jews will be the first victims. The vows of the Supreme Ayatollah to wipe Israel off the map are not just rhetoric. Hitler’s Mein Kampf wasn’t just a book either.

This is yet another example of the President’s word that no one should trust.

By the author of the Brandon novels. I welcome comments and urge you to pass on this message to your contacts. The above is the result of my own analysis, experience, and beliefs.