Tag Archives: Middle East

by Barry Kelly | May 8, 2015 · 7:47 am

INSIGHTS 204 — The Advisor’s Core Facts of the Middle East

The Advisor had no trouble putting together the realities of the Middle East, but he spent extra time deciding how to present a picture that would not cause the president to walk out on him during his presentation. The president was intelligent but had a very thin skin for such an accomplished political campaigner. Perhaps, he thought, it is because the truth had no place on his campaign trails. On the campaign, the ends for him clearly justified whatever needed to be done or said to weaken the opposition. The president had taken on board the Saul Alinsky rules totally. The issue is never the issue is his guidance for all his policies and speeches. The man is remarkably consistent and, for his followers, he is brilliant. He can avoid and ignore issues that any previous president would have believed he had to take on.

As he mused over his dilemma, the Advisor worked to stay within his historic guidelines. He had to advise his president to the best of his ability. The fact that he thought this president was clearly focused on destroying the political and economic structure he inherited was a problem, for his responsibility was to advise the president in his role to protect and improve the life of its citizens. If he could be just a little dishonest, he could rationalize that the president wanted to improve America. But in the process of socialization, great harm would be done. Freedom and the ability to rise above the norm would be lost as long as socialism, communism, or progressivism prevailed. He just couldn’t, or more honestly, wouldn’t follow that path.

At that moment, the Advisor’s only phone rang, with the only person he ever spoke to, outside the president, on the other line. Chris Hammond, the chief of the President’s Secret Service detail, said the president would late, somewhere near midnight. Good, he thought, that will give me time for a nap, a shower, and a frozen Indian curry dinner.

It was almost midnight when the Advisor put on a fresh pot of Sumatra dark roast. He was just getting ready to pour himself a cup when the faint alarm sounded and the president entered.

“Welcome, Mr. President. You must be able to smell fresh coffee brewing.”

The president chuckled. “When the coffee is as good as yours, I could smell it for miles, even when it is coming from an underground cave. Your existence is even more constrained than mine. I suspect you have learned to take pleasure in small things.”

“Yes, I have. That is very perceptive of you. There doesn’t seem to be much instant gratification in your life.”

“No, there isn’t. And I think I won’t get much in the next hour or so. Shall we begin? Surprise me.” The president sat back in his seat at the conference table, a cigarette already between his fingers.

“First, some basics. You know most of these but they are important in any discussion of the Middle East, no matter the subject. The people of the Middle East have a past they are proud of and a present they are not. Tribal allegiance is still a very important factor. Mobility up the social chain is much harder than it is in America where education is the key to improved status. In the Middle East it is religion and revolution. For reasons beyond my understanding Asian and Middle Eastern people have a very long and usually patient view of the time/progress ratio. Americans are only comfortable with instant gratification plus a decade.

“Then, there is the history of religious wars and colonialism when troops from the West with superior weapons and technology subjugated people of the Middle East and attempted to impose Western culture and even religion in the conquered areas. As a result the people of this historic crossroad both admire and hate the West with its superior technology.

“After World War I, diplomats from the West drew national boundaries that failed to consider tribal loyalties, religious affiliations, and the hunger of people for their own homeland. The situation of present-day Kurds is an example. The destruction of Saddam Hussain’s Iraqi ’empire’ created a vacuum that the Iranians are filling after noting the West had abandoned the region.

“Iran is the dominant single nation in the Middle East today. For decades, they have been working to take control of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen by creating and funding Shiite terrorists groups in all these nations. The West has been ineffective in thwarting the Iranian drive to hegemony in the Middle East. Now the Iranians want to solidify their gains and they need to be a nuclear power to do so. Unless they are presented with strong military and economic resistance, they will not be deterred in achieving nuclear status with an ICBM capability. They cannot be trusted to honor any agreement or treaty that stands in the way. Nor will they stop the funding and equipping of proxy terrorist organization to further their dominance of the Middle East. Nothing in Iran will change for the better in Western terms without a regime change. I know you have other reasons for negotiating with the Ayatollahs but there will be a terrible price to pay in human terms.”

The president sat still for a moment, then took a final drag on his cigarette before grinding it down on the table. “There were some surprises but you gave the speech I expected. I have to go, but this is interesting. I’ll give my response at one of our next meetings.” He left without another word or without a look back, per usual.

The Advisor found himself already impatient to hear the president’s response.

The above is a fictional account of a president meeting with a legendary but fictional advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and kindle formats. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

INSIGHTS 164: IF WORDS WERE BULLETS AND PROMISES BOMBS

Our president fills the airwaves with words and promises. Most of us have learned to just tune them out. He has a reputation as a good speaker but only if someone else writes the words and his technical staff puts them on a teleprompter. It would be more accurate to say he is very good at reading speeches. Words are simply a means to achieve some murky end.

The president’s words in a war environment are very different. We do not dare tune them out. People’s lives and freedoms are at stake.

This president is the least equipped to be a commander-in-chief than any president in my lifetime, which goes back to FDR’s first term. President Obama carries with him some very strange baggage. I think he believes American troops in foreign lands are and were there as occupiers. He has even referred to our troops in Iraq during the actual war as an army of occupiers. His anti-colonial distrust of American power is deeply ingrained, but not well hidden. No troops were left in Iraq because he wanted his legacy to be the president who lived up to his pre-election rhetoric to end wars, not start them. Any American forces left behind in Iraq would be interfering with the sovereignty of Iraq and be occupiers, not protectors of the peace.

As a result, we have ISIS. I gave the president credit for putting together a coalition of Islamic countries and for authorizing the air war. The no-boots-on-the-ground chant bothered me but I thought he would take advice from the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to guide the air war and when the time was right to put some troops on the ground to direct the air war and stiffen the Peshmerga and Sunni tribes to resist ISIS advances. The airstrikes did work to save Kirkuk and the huge nearby dam complex. Now ISIS commanders have adapted and the air war failed to reach the level of hundreds of strikes per day against fixed targets and targets of opportunity. Even now, outside the Kurdish city of Kobani, which ISIS is poised to capture and massacre thousands of non-believers in ISIS’s brand of Islam, the airstrikes are far to few and ineffective.

To reach Kobani with the troops and fire power necessary to push the Peshmerga out of part of their homeland, ISIS had to establish and maintain long lines of logistical support. These kinds of targets are vulnerable to air interdiction. ISIS logistical convoys of tanks and trucks have to move though miles of desolate, sparsely populated areas. There is no cover and very little need to worry about collateral damage. Yet the might of the American air power is not being used.

Civilian command over the military is a very important Constitutional precept. But that doesn’t mean political hacks in the White House should manage the war. Militarily, they are worse than incompetent, because in arrogance they believe they are right. How many books by former Cabinet officers in the Obama administration do we have to read or hear on TV before everyone realizes there is a huge difference between civilian control and civilian-hands-on-management by politicians whose primary purpose is to make the president look good? I thought we had learned our lesson in the Vietnam War when the White House acted as a command center and target selection facility outside the Pentagon. Then, as now, no high-ranking generals or admirals resigned rather than kowtow to politicians with no or very limited military credentials. It would be more honorable if, rather than write books afterward, they openly resisted bad political/military orders and resigned. Their oath is to defend America, not their careers or the political legacy of any president.

Written by the author of “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an ebook, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. If you think this message is important, please share it.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Intelligence & Politics, ISIS, Kurds, Sunni, Terrorism

Tagged as America, BarackObama, iraq, ISIS, Islam, Middle East, White House

by Barry Kelly | October 1, 2014 · 7:30 am

INSIGHTS 160: FACTS ON THE GROUND

While the president and his administration are pointing fingers of blame at everyone and everything but themselves, let’s look at some ground truths.

The Obama administration could have had a Status of Forces of Agreement in Iraq to protect our troops from being charged, arrested, and tried in Iraqi courts. All that is required is for us to leave a mobile Army Division augmented by its supporting logistical units, air support, selected combat teams, and Special Forces in a U.S.-controlled base strategically located in Iraq. Prime Minister al-Maliki was in no position to follow his Iranian guidance and refuse. We could have replaced him. Sometimes the development of a new democracy needs a little forceful guidance.

When Obama pulled out all our troops, the training of the Iraqi Army with critical American combat support had reached a point where it could have defended Iraqi territory. Without American boots and eyes on the ground to detect and stop al-Maliki from critically weakening the Iraqi Army by replacing most Sunni and Kurdish officers with Shiite replacements, the Iraqi Army was no longer the force America trained. It had no chance against the ISIS invasion. al-Maliki’s leadership destroyed any faint hopes the Sunnis and Kurds had in sharing Iraq’s resources and having a real say in the governing of the country.

The powerful Sunni tribes that fought with U.S. forces to destroy al-Qaeda in Iraq are not going to fight to defend a corrupt Shiite government in Baghdad. Many of these Sunnis joined ISIS as the better choice for them. Some of the Sunnis trained by American forces may well be fighting with ISIS now. They only thing we can offer them to change sides is the promise of their own Sunni nation with no ties to a Shiite government located somewhere south of Baghdad.

The Kurds and their Peshmerga forces are good fighters. They will fight to the death to defend their people and their land. They will not defend the Shiite regime in Baghdad, no matter the name of the prime minister. For many decades, the Kurds have wanted control of their historical homeland. They have fought the Turks, Iranians, and Iraqis as far back as their oral history. American arms and supplies sent to the Kurds through Baghdad will never reach Kurdistan. Out of this chaos the Kurds are betting they have a good chance of winning their freedom. But they will need our help. Without assurances of a free Kurdistan, they will not fight ISIS forces very far from their own borders.

Iran is the biggest danger in the region. Their intent is to development nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. We don’t know when it will happen, only that it will. Probably during President Obama’s time in office. The mindset of the current Iranian Islamic autocracy is that when they have nuclear weapons, they will use them.

Here again, the president holds views that have no basis in reality. He even has a secretary of state who shares his view of peace through negotiations even when the other side only demands instead of negotiating. It is a one-sided negotiation. Iran doesn’t want ISIS on its doorstep but will not change its focus on the development of nuclear weapons. Iran does not want to be involved in a punishing ground war with ISIS. The Iraqi Shiites will be protected by Iran and become an Iranian puppet pseudo state.

The Obama administration could have prevented the ISIS crisis if it had been more interested in the reality of foreign affairs rather than using inaction to create a make-believe, no-fault-of-Obama’a world. Inaction led to pulling all our troops out of Iraq and turning victory into defeat. Inaction led to the civil war in Syria from spreading into Iraq. Either the Obama Administration did not know or ignored indications al-Maliki was destroying the fabric of the Iraqi nation by cutting the Sunnis and the Kurds out of their share of oil revenue and a voice in the running of the national government, creating a fertile environment for ISIS forces.

The rate of training 5,000 fighters a year in Saudi Arabia to serve as ground troops is not going to work. It creates the illusion of action but is not going to be effective. NATO countries and Sunni coalition members need to field a force of at least 20,000 combat troops, augmented by as many regional fighters as we can recruit, and declare all of Syria and Iraq as a no-fly zone for military aircraft. With the right approach the Sunni tribes we can cut them out of the ISIS recruitment pool and set up a Sunni government to rival ISIS. To do that, President Obama has to recognize the Baghdad government is over and to stop negotiating unimportant legalistic details with a government that will soon be fleeing south. He also needs to get over his anti-colonial hangups about the alleged misuse of America military power in foreign lands. It is not unusual to hear liberal Americans refer to our efforts in Iraq in the Bush years as the “occupation of Iraq.” This is the epitome of “hate America” thinking. We all deserve a better legacy than that espoused by progressives.

INSIGHTS 159: FLAWED VISION OR ANTI-U.S. AGENDA?

Normally when a president gives a speech to an international audience, the president and his staff carefully craft the message he is to deliver. The Obama White House is no different. They never miss a chance to get their message out. They are very good about keeping all their key members on the message.

What message was the president reading off his teleprompter this past week in front of his international audience? Was it that ISIS is a bad group that needs to be checked and all concerned nations should join him in the fight against ISIS? Sounds right. And he did ask for support.

The second message seemed to be that while these people are bad, they are not radical or extremist Islamists. In fact, he never used the words “radical Islamists.” He said America will never wage a war against Islam, going on to say there is no “them or us.” We have millions of Islamic members in America, he said, as if to say a war against Islam would be a war against our own people.

The president has a hard time with using words to describe terrorism inflicted on others by followers of Islam. Remember he and his attorney general still refer to the murdering of service members at Fort Hood by a self-avowed Islamist shouting “Allah Akbar” while firing into an unarmed group of service men and women as “work place violence.” The president and his attorney general have never used the Islamic label in any situation involving terrorism. (Hope the next attorney general can break this mold.) It is clear all Islamists are not terrorists but nearly all recent terrorism attacks have been done in the name of Islam by the terrorists. What is the problem with recognizing reality?

This president acts as if he doesn’t like America or its historical past. Does he really think the shooting of a black teenager in Ferguson, Missouri, is equal to the beheadings and murders of thousands of people judged to be unbelievers by ISIS? If not, why even raise the issue? The case in Ferguson is still under investigation and until the grand jury makes the evidence public, everyone, including our president and Eric Holder, should be quiet about the issue. It may not be exactly the way they would like it to be.

I suspect the president is so mired in the anti-colonial socialist past of his historical view that he has trouble seeing reality in some cases. Unfortunately, those cases sometimes involve national security. A lot of American blood and treasure have been spent by brave men and women to defend us from radical jihadists. How can we win the struggle against radical Islam if our leaders cannot even recognize the issue and call it by name? Your call: flawed vision or an anti-U.S. agenda?

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Politics, Progressives, Terrorism

Tagged as Attorney General, eric holder, ISIS, Islam, Middle East, Obama, socialism

by Barry Kelly | September 25, 2014 · 7:35 am

INSIGHTS 157 — WHO’S TO BLAME FOR OUR MESS? PART 1

beforeitsnews.com

Most Americans seem to realize the country is in a mess, both domestically and internationally. The evidence is clear to all but the fringe true believers who have totally closed their minds to new or conflicting information.

You don’t have to look far. We have fewer people in the workforce than anytime in the last eight years. Wages have not keep pace with inflation. More people are on food stamps and their numbers are growing faster than ever before. The dollar is losing strength. Only those who can afford to make investments in the stock market are doing better than okay. The president’s Qualitative Easing program has pumped varying amounts as high as 86 billion dollars a month into the economy for the last several years, creating an artificial stock market for the well-to-do, but widened the gap between the haves and have-nots. The progressives have created an ideal economy for their class warfare rhetoric.

Tax reform has been ignored. Social programs and debt servicing are eating deeply into the gross national product and getting worse each year. Obamacare has yet to find a niche where it is actually helping people. Regulations are killing business and driving American corporations overseas in search of friendly business locations. Government is growing at a rate far beyond what is necessary. Power is accruing to the executive branch. The separation of powers contained in the Constitution is being rapidly eroded. Congress, largely due to its timidness, is becoming irrelevant. At least the progressives in charge know where they are driving the country. The Republicans do not.

If anything good is happening domestically, it is hard to find. The president, the attorney general and profession racists raise the race flag at every opportunity. The once-prestigious New York Times and Washington Post have become ideological supporters of the progressive agenda. Selective omission and slanting of the news is an everyday affair.

Our universities are no longer bastions of free thinking and speech. They too are turning out left-wing ideologues, rather than graduates who have learned to question orthodoxy and think outside the box. Pride in America is hard to find in progressive ranks and the history of our country is, according to Obama’s progressives, something we must apologize for. The progressive party refers to our armed forces in Iraq as an occupying force. At a time of real dangers in the world, President Obama is cutting the armed forces back to pre-WWII levels.

Internationally, nothing done by the president’s direction has gone right. First, the do-nothing but travel everywhere secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and the “never saw a situation he couldn’t make worse” John Kerry, have made a shambles out negations with Iran, Iraq, Israel, the Palestinians, Russia, China, Europe, and the Middle East. If there ever was gang in the White House that couldn’t shoot straight, this is it. Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Israel, and Benghazi come to mind. The foreign policy list of unbelievable gaffs could go on much longer.

Read my next blog to find out who is to blame for all this mess. Coming later this week.

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