Tag Archives: Middle East

INSIGHTS 156 — BOOTS IN THE SKY OVER SYRIA

The thunder over Syria is a victory for President Obama’s diplomacy. Maybe he has more insights into Muslim politics than other foreign policy areas.

infoplease.com

infoplease.com

No matter what or how, this is one of those rare win-win events.  America gets very welcome cover for air attacks against Muslim targets. Muslim nations flying combat missions with our planes also will give Putin pause before he does something rash to protect President Assad in Syria. Putin may be happy to maintain and defend his naval base in Syria and leave the air war uncontested by Russian threats. Iran also may not be willing to militarily confront a powerful Sunni military and political coalition. I’m sure one of the prices we paid for Saudi, U.A.E., Jordanian, Qatar and Bahrain’s support is our agreement to defend them against external attacks.

In any agreement, it’s always instructive to understand the strategic and tactical goals of your allies. Our allies in the air war against ISIS have clear goals. They do not want a powerful Sunni radical nation on their borders. Many of the  Muslims butchered by ISIS were Sunnis. Some of the ISIS military units were once funded by members of our new Muslim air war allies. King Saud and the U.A.E. have been funding and equipping a proxy war against President Assad’s Syrian Shiite  regime for a few years. They have fighters on the ground. Now they have the freedom to provide air support for their fighters. The same Muslim air sorties can also punish any units that have double-crossed them and joined ISIS. It seems the U.A.E. has command and control to direct the Muslim air war. They have better intelligence on the ground where their fighting units are engaged with Assad then we do. It is still a win-win but getting rid of Assad’s Alawite (Shiite) Regime may rank higher with our Muslim air coalition than defeating ISIS in Iraq.

Bringing Saudi Arabia into the air war against ISIS is a very big deal. President Obama must have upgraded his foreign policy team. Openly talking about bringing Iran into the war against ISIS was a brilliant move. Nothing would make the Saudis move faster than the possibility of an American/Iran alliance in their front yard. We don’t have boots-on-the-ground but the military and diplomatic war against ISIS has moved several squares forward.

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EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 150

SHAPE THE BATTLEFIELD

Image: U.S. President Obama walks to speak about the Affordable Care Act at the White House in Washington

President Obama read the polls and decided he should address the nation on the ISIS threat. But he didn’t say a word Wednesday night about how his past policies have made it necessary for America to go to war again in Iraq.

He claimed to have a small coalition of nine NATO nations and Australia who have not committed ground troops. That’s a bit smaller than the last time we went into Iraq, when we were supported by 29 nations who committed ground troops. President Obama did as well as he could from the foundations of his foreign policy over the last nearly six years. Let’s not poke anymore holes into his speech about ISIS.

As commander-in-chief, he needs to be clear on a few critical points. The first is call the threat what it is. It is radical Islam. Within those circles which include most of the Islamic world, it is a good thing to kill infidels/nonbelievers. Where are the moderate Muslims? The Saudis have funded radical madrases/schools all over the near, middle and far east for at least two decades. Money from Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Kuwait, and Pakistan have poured resources into the Taliban and other radical Islamic organizations for years. Nearly all the World Trade Center bombers were Saudis. In Egypt the more moderate military is nearly fully occupied dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood that Obama backed against Mubarak. Libya doesn’t seem too moderate, nor does our old ally, Turkey. Pakistan is not a moderate Islamic nation. Good luck, Mr. President, in finding moderate Islamic states to join your coalition with real help and commitment. They may not continue to support ISIS but I doubt they will stand up with a Christian nation against ISIS. Their only interest is keeping ISIS away from their territory.

The second point is that competent boots on the ground are necessary to win any military campaign. Obama’s examples of his strategic success in fighting terrorism in Yemen and Somalia are not even relevant. The relevant bit of recent history is the Bush Administration defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan with approximately 500 American boots on the ground, all military or civilian special forces warriors and, of course, thousands of tribal fighters from the Northern Alliance. Enough fighters to push the Taliban into massing to defend against attack so the U.S. Air Force, flying no holds barred missions, including B-52s, destroyed the defense positions of the Taliban down the length of  Afghanistan. The air strikes were guided to the kill zones by American civilian and uniformed Special Forces. That is a proven tactic. The problem is that skilled fighters like those of the Northern Alliance have yet to be identified.

With a clear broad view of the strategic battlefield, victory is possible without large U.S. combat units, but small units on the ground will be needed. First the Kurds will fight and can fight as soon as the Obama Administration recognizes the Kurds will fight for their own homeland. We need to accept and welcome Kurdistan into the alliance. As of last week they reported that had not received any arms shipments from the U.S. Our in the box thinkers had to send all aid to the Kurds through Baghdad which is the same as not sending any. Shiites don’t send weapons to Kurds.

The next tactic to hurt the heads of our people struggling to put Iraq back together again is to rekindle our Special Forces relationship with the Sunni tribes. They will not go back into a Shiite-dominated government so recognize that, and tell the humpty-dumpty bureaucrats trying to patch together a phony country to cease and desist. The Sunni tribes, if promised their own land and given weapons, will fight and take care of the ISIS forces in Iraq. The next step is easy. Let the Shiites retreat south of Baghdad until they decide they will stop and fight for their own land, Shiiteville. All we have to do then is separate the not so bad guys from the really bad guys in Syria and work with them to get rid of the Assad tyranny. All this can be done in less than a year with very few American WIA or KIA. What was Iraq is now nearly the same as it was before arrogant western diplomats drew unreal lines on a map and created the nightmare of Iraq. None of this can be done unless the president gets out of the way and lets the Pentagon and CIA run the war on terror and radical Islam.

Written by the author of “INSIGHTS: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available in hardcover, paperback, and ebook formats from Amazon and Barnes and Noble. You are encouraged to share this message and follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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Filed under Afghanistan, Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Kurds, Obama, Shiite, Sunni, Terrorism

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 151

POLICY TO DEFEAT ISIS

Outlining a policy to defeat ISIS is not hard. Implementing the policy is much harder, especially when the government is run by a bunch of radical left wing lawyers and ideologues.

To begin, the president needs to recognize the problem. It is not workplace violence as the Obama administration stills labels the murder of soldiers at Fort Hood by a radical Islamist shouting Muslim slogans. With that mindset, this administration will never defeat ISIS with a law and order approach or a “management approach.” Wars are not won by lawyers spouting law and order sound bites: “We’ll bring them to justice.”

What kind of insanity is that? We need to destroy them with our military power. Our warriors need to be in charge of the battle. Keep the lawyers out.

Speaking of lawyers, who do you think has made it mandatory to ship all our weapons to the Kurds through the Shiite government in Baghdad? It has to be the Obama lawyer group. The government in Baghdad is useless. They are and have been a Shiite-dominated government. They are not going to pass weapons on to the Kurds. They don’t want the Kurds to have effective weapons. They have no intentions of helping the Kurds establish a Kurdish nation. And the Kurds will not again put themselves under a Shiite government in Baghdad or anywhere else. The Obama administration has lied again to Congress and the people. The Kurds are not, repeat not, receiving weapons to defend themselves and perform as “boots on the ground” in their area.

Our legalistic Obama administration just can’t grasp the fact that Iraq is no longer a nation. The  American troops in Baghdad are primarily there to defend the embassy. For we are still pretending Iraq is a nation that we should continue to recognize and support. Baghdad will fall and the American embassy will be another R&R facility for the victors. Our second policy principle must be recognition that the borders in Iraq, drawn by the Western powers after WWI, are gone. Kurdistan has all the ingredients of nationhood and should be recognized and supported. The enemy does not recognize the border between Syria and Iraq. It is meaningless unless you are an Obama lawyer or diplomat. Our military and political efforts to defeat ISIS must ignore the old border.

The third principle is that we once had a working relationship with the Sunni tribal leaders. That relationship needs to be re-established. We will need to convince the Sunnis that we will keep our word and support them in their own autonomous region, independent of the Shiite government. They will fight for their own land, if supported with U.S. weapons and Special Forces operatives. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, and the Gulf States will support a Sunni homeland in what was part of Iraq. The lawyers will never support this shift. Therefore, it is time for President Obama to surrounded himself with operatives who have a grasp of the real world, instead of the ideologues now occupying the White House.

The fourth policy principle is the president must turn over the management of the war to the Defense Department. If he keeps the White House legal team, the UN, and the State Department out of the war business, we can defeat ISIS. John Kerry always makes everything he touches worse and the Obama lawyers and ideologues have absolutely no real-world experience. The UN has no love for America and is useless in serious peace keeping operations.

I do not expect the Obama administration to leave their progressive ideology to adopt these sensible principles. But they should!

Written by the author of “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an ebook, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. If you think this message is important, please share it.

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EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 145

RESIST OR RESIGN OR BOTH?

The president, as commander-in-chief, directs the activities of the Defense Department. The secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs advise the president and send him recommendations. We all know that. Civilian rule over the military is a long-established and necessary doctrine. But what happens when the commander-in-chief is not capable of developing defense policy and providing the leadership to implement the policy? Are the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs still required to follow presidential guidance? The answer is a clear yes. We have a thing called the ballot box that settles who is our commander-in-chief.

President Barack Obama announces former Senator Chuck Hagel, second from left, as his nominee for Secretary of Defense.  Photo by Matt Compton, from whitehouse.gov.

President Barack Obama announces former Senator Chuck Hagel, second from left, as his nominee for Secretary of Defense. Photo by Matt Compton, from whitehouse.gov.

But that doesn’t mean that General Dempsey and the secretary of defense are powerless to resist dangerous policies or can’t argue forcefully against presidential (commander-in-chief) orders. We have a president who, to my memory, has not been right in a single foreign or military issue. His decisions always put his politics and image ahead of what professionals think/know is best for the nation. Just review the mess in Libya with Gaddafi’s regime looking better every day since he was ousted and central control over Libya vanished, ending up with Benghazi and weapons flowing to radical Islamic groups though out the Middle East and Africa. The president’s inability to see the world as it is has led to a dangerous situation in the Ukraine as Putin takes advantage of the absence of American power and resolve. The famous disappearing redline in Syria, the failure to aid moderate Islamic forces to overthrow Asad, the vacillation over the reformation of the Iraqi government, the plans to drastically reduce the armed forces, the constantly televised presidential statements telling our enemies what we will not do and when we are leaving the theater are some critical examples. It is too late for the moderate secular Muslims have now been killed or absorbed into ISIS.

Dempsey and Hagel have had ample opportunity to judge the effectiveness and wisdom of their commander-in-chief. Some of their statements indicate they disagree with President Obama. Even if their refreshingly strong recent statements are walked back within a day or so, it might be a start. They are required to follow President Obama’s lead by our founding documents but they also took an oath to defend America and its people. If they cannot convince the president to change or modify his orders, both need to resign and take their case to Congress and the public. They have a duty to do so. But maybe they think they are indispensable or that by remaining in office they are preventing a bad situation from getting worse. Or do they just want to keep their prestigious positions and titles? I hope both of these men who have honorably served their country will choose the right path.

At the very least they need to stop the disintegration of the Armed Forces back to pre-World War II levels and to invest in developing new weapons to ensure America’s ability to defend itself and its allies. Congress will cooperate, they know peace comes through strength. War thrives on weakness. Every historian, except those with a progressive political agenda, will agree.

Written by the author of “Insights: Transforming America — Is This What We Fought For?” available now as an ebook, in paperback or hardcover on Amazon.com or BN.com. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80. If you think this message is important, please share it.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, Progressives, Russia

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 141

KURDS AND ISIS

However he got there doesn’t matter. It is rare that President Obama gets policy and action together to do the right thing. So let’s give him credit for helping the Kurds rescue thousands of minority religious followers and begin pushing ISIS back into traditional Sunni tribal areas. Without U.S. airstrikes and weapons delivered to  the Kurds, the Mosel Dam and Christians and other minorities would still be in the hands of ISIS. There is absolutely no question that ISIS is capable of genocide against any people who do not believe in sharia law.

Unfortunately, this is not a short-term problem with a quick answer. The right thing is to support the Kurds. Their army, the Peshmerga, can and will fight to protect their homeland and people. All they need is an American commitment to supply needed weapons and some economic support. They can be a pillar of stability in the region and a military balance to the ISIS. The Kurds will not, unless forced, ever put their fate in the hands of a Baghdad Shiite or Sunni government. They have suffered under successive Baghdad regimes. The Kurds also have no love for Iran or Turkey.

Over the last five-plus years, the world has seen that our word cannot be taken at face value. Therefore, the problem for the Kurds is deciding whether they can trust our commitments. They are in a very dangerous position with few options. America will get another chance to show the world if our word means anything. The president has broad powers in foreign policy and armed conflict issues. But in this case it would help if he could involve Congress in long-term support for the Kurds. This is an issue he should not use to attack his opposition. There has to be some kind of a line between progressive political goals and something as serious as building a area of stability in the wreckage of Iraq that is friendly with America.

We can not expect the Kurds to trust us if we show intent of putting them back under a Baghdad regime. The president and Congress need to accept that the idea of a Shiite government ever being trusted by the Sunnis or the Kurds is gone. In fact, it was never a viable option. The borders of the Middle East have been changed de facto. A smart foreign policy would accept the change and move on. Please, Mr. President, keep Secretary of State,  John Kerry out of Kurdish policy issues. You and we cannot afford any more bumbling by your Department of State.

Read my non-fiction book, “INSIGHTS: Transforming America –Is this what we fought for? “

 

 

 

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