Tag Archives: Middle East

by Barry Kelly | November 25, 2013 · 6:56 pm

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS-90

From left to right (front): Chamberlain, Daladier, Hitler, Mussolini, and Ciano pictured before signing the Munich Agreement. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

OBAMA’S IRAN

When you badly want a deal, you get a bad deal. In the case of the “Peace in Our Time” appeasement of Iran by the Obama Administration, the President wanted and needed the fasade of a successful negotiation with the radical Islamists who run Iran. He needed a deal for domestic political reasons. Without the plummeting poll numbers about his lack of Presidential qualities exposed by the failing of Obamacare, America would have stayed the course to keep real sanctions on Iran. You see in Obama’s world all issues are domestic issues. He just doesn’t care about foreign affairs unless a world journey provides good photo ops and news bites for the American Press. Obamacare’s many slogans apply here. ‘If you like Iran without nuclear weapons, you can keep it.’

Not hardly. Again some history. When Neville Chamberlain made his infamous deal with Hitler in 1938 he was a hero to every liberal in the world. “Peace in our time” sounded so good. Once you could sit across the table from your adversary everything could be worked out. Except, Hitler was only buying time. Sound Familiar? When he was ready, his Panzers roared across the border into Czechoslovakia and later into Poland. “Peace in Our Time” was over. Chamberlain and the dangers of appeasement were exposed. Millions of lives later, the historical monumental mistake of Chamberlain and his liberal supporters was corrected.

I believe to improve his poll numbers President Obama has positioned himself as the American Chamberlain. Iran has sacrificed years of hardship to pay for the development of nuclear weapons. It is their number one strategic objective. No words by Secretary Kerry or President Obama will deter Iran from its goal of becoming a nuclear power and using that power to dominate the Middle East.

President Obama claims that if Iran doesn’t follow the terms of the agreement, he will ‘crank up’ the sanctions. It will be too late and neither Russia nor China will cooperate. China wants Iranian oil and Russia views Iran as a market for the sale of its weapons. Europe and the rest of the world are tired of the whole process. The time window for sanctions will very soon be over. As it was in Europe in WWII, the Jews will be the first victims. The vows of the Supreme Ayatollah to wipe Israel off the map are not just rhetoric. Hitler’s Mein Kampf wasn’t just a book either.

This is yet another example of the President’s word that no one should trust.

By the author of the Brandon novels. I welcome comments and urge you to pass on this message to your contacts. The above is the result of my own analysis, experience, and beliefs.

There Are A Lot People Comparing Obama’s New Iran Deal With a Significant (and Very Bad) Moment in History (theblaze.com)
Doc’s Talk: The Nuclear Deal With Iran is a Foreign Policy Disaster (docstalk.blogspot.com)
Obama’s Iran Deal: Worse than Munich (conservativebyte.com)
Why Obama’s Iran Nuke Deal Is a Good Thing (frontpagemag.com)

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Filed under Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Israel, Obama, Obamacare, Poland, Russia

Tagged as Adolf Hitler, BarackObama, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Neville Chamberlain, Obama, United States

by Barry Kelly | July 22, 2013 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 65

LEADING FROM BEHIND–THE ADVISOR

The Advisor was thinking about how forceful he could be in advising President Obama. The subject for his next visit would be the consequences in foreign policy of leading from behind. The President wasn’t a stupid or a cruel man. He was just a man who carried an enormous amount of baggage.

Could anyone walk away from the influences he was subject to in his earlier life? the advisor thought. Some he was personally responsible for, others he had no real choice. Parents from far to the left, several years in a Muslim Madrassi teaching Wahhabism. His father, an anti-colonialist Kenyan, whose family had been persecuted by the British Colonialists. For most of his formidable years he was exposed to radical leftist ideologies. Then, the influence of Ivy League progressives, Saul Alinsky and his radical plan for seizing power, Reverend Wright and his hate America sermons, William Ayers and his terrorist viewpoint and to top it off the ruthless and corrupt school of Chicago politics. The President never personally suffered from his associations and ideology. Therefore, he has no understanding of the consequences of following a revolutionary ideology. It is probably too late now but I must try. I will never knowingly give him bad advice or try to manipulate him. My mission code does not allow it. After all, he was elected twice and could probably win a third term if it were permitted.

The advisor’s musing is interrupted when the flashing red light and soft chiming called him to the phone.

The President arrived a few minutes later at nine o’clock PM. The President strode into the room, greeted the advisor and said, “Let’s get started. I have some extra time and need a cup of your coffee.”

“Mr. President, you look like a man who doesn’t have a care in the world.”

“Today was good day. No one was asking me to do the impossible. Why do my supporters and staff think I should get involved in everything?”

“You are the ‘point of the spear.’ They count on you to give them what they want without understanding that doing nothing is also, at times, a good action plan. There, a perfect opening for my talk. Remember, you told me to pick the topic. So I’m going to talk about the concept of leading from behind. Please interrupt at any time. I’m going to use foreign affairs as a backdrop for my advice.

“You are in the fifth year of your Presidency. That is long enough for you to own America’s position in the world. You will not like some of my statements. But I will assure you, the the facts are correct. My analysis may be faulty because I project it into the future where no one can be absolutely sure they are right. First our main adversary, Russia. They are stronger now than they were before your election. Today their fleet is in the Mediterranean, something that was inconceivable in the last several decades. They have nearly secured a warm water port in the Med, a Russian goal going back to the czars. They failed in Afghanistan to find a corridor to warm water. Russia’s ability to project power has been limited for centuries because they lacked a port with year round operations capability. The Syrian port of Tartous is the payoff for their support to Assad. Sure, they enjoy threatening American and Israeli interests in the Middle East, but Tartous is the real goal.

“To see more clearly the Russian move into the Middle East, imagine a monopoly game where the winner gains areas of influence and the losers, well, lose. You failed to negotiate a status of forces agreement in Iraq where it was in no one’s interest for the U.S. to abandon the country. Certainly sectarian violence would be lessened if we had a seat at the table. Iran could not supply Syria forces through or over Iraq. Iran could not threaten Iraq if we had maintained a presence in Iraq. Iran would have a harder time supplying Hezbollah and using that force to control Lebanon, another possibility for Russia to exploit to acquire a warm water port. Our anti-ballistic missiles on the ground in Iraq could bring more defense against an Iranian attack on Israel or the Sunni Middle East. ‘Leading from Behind’ policies have resulted in our loss of space supremacy, ABM land-based systems, and talks about unilaterally cutting force size and our inventor of ballistic missiles that have kept us from a nuclear war since WWII. Our loss of influence in Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and Pakistan is not a foreign affairs victory. Leading from behind means you are and will remain behind.

“Leading from behind does not win respect in the world. Your monopoly board does not look good. Putin has no respect for you as leader because he sees you weakening America and, therefore, believes you are not someone he should worry about. Most of the world respects power and distrusts weakness. To world leaders words don’t matter. Words without action are invisible. To start with I advise you to say less and do more. You can project American power without following the old colonial pattern you hate so much.”

The President puts his cup down, grinds out his cigarette.

The Advisor says, “Yes. I have known ever since you sent the bust of Winston Churchill back to England. Your constant concern is for the little nation, the poor people, the Muslim nations over the Colonial West. If you achieve your goal of leveling America and the world, you’ll destroy both and civilization of all will suffer. But that is for another time.”

The President gets up and strides to the door. He looks back as he leaves and says, “You can’t be right.”

The Advisor says, “Goodnight Mr.President,” to the sound of an automatic locking door.

He thought, that went well.

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. http://www.factsandfictions.com

The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to pass on this blog or parts of it to your contacts and friends. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful.

Eight Decades of Insights – 8

I’ve noticed my ability to pontificate has increased with age. Since, at the same time, I believe I have some things to say, I’ll ignore this dangerous combination. Pushing on through the twin perils of giving birth to boring text and unproven assertions, I decided to use my new skills to probe the next decade. No matter where I begin, the probe hits the barrier of political polarization just under the surface. The sharp divide along class lines and ideology that has arisen with Obama’s reign is not as dangerous to our way of life as the fissures leading to the Civil War or the War Between the States. Nomenclature is the responsibility of the reader.

It is nowhere close. Calls for class warfare and the redistribution of wealth will not lead to a clash of arms. The more reasonable and largest segment of our political spectrum is the Center. Who are tired of the ideological cries that ‘the sky is falling’ from the extreme left and right wings. President Obama is not an evil entity. He is merely an inept man clinging to a discarded ideology. With different life experiences, he might have made a fair to middling President. So far he has not done irreparable harm. Any pragmatic experienced leader/manager can get us back on track for his replacement will have a great force to assist him or her govern in 2012 or 2016.

The Center, consisting of moderates and pragmatists, can rally all Americans in the name of national survival. The financial crisis will focus our attention on the need to drastically cut spending and balance the national budget, leading to a much smaller national government. The Center knows the lessons of history. Keynesian economics, that believes government spending, even of borrowed money, can stimulate the national economy has never worked. Not for FDR and not for Obama. Americans have always been willing to make sacrifices in the name of national security and the well-being of the next generation. No fear, in the next four to eight years, the threat from irresponsible spending and borrowing will be clear to all. Well, maybe the ideologues on the far left will still debate using their own facts. But they will truly be voices in the wilderness.

Along with fiscal responsibility, an overhaul of the tax budget is necessary. A tax code that is understandable, progressive in nature, and drastically reduces the over 40% who pay no income taxes will alleviate the impact of the strident calls for class warfare and the anti-business rhetoric emanating from the Administration. Term limits on Congress are necessary to improve their responsiveness to the people they represent. Three terms for a Senator and five for House members seems both fair and pragmatic.

The next decade will bring a crisis in national defense. Probably very early in the decade. Again the citizens will rally behind the need for a strong military. The conflict with Islam militants will not go away until moderate followers of Islam put their own house in order. Their past record does not lead to much hope. Again the Center knows that peace comes through strength. Respect is a stronger force for influence in world politics than striving to be liked. The dangers of a nuclear Iran, a rogue Pakistan, an unmistakable growing militarism in China, a probable increasing radicalization of Islam, especially in the Middle East and a democracy killing leadership in Russia will motivate us to make the sacrifices necessary to defend our country and our friends. These threats will clearly expose The UN for what is has become, a forum for discussion of popular causes. At times nice to have, but not worth the disproportionate share of American dollars.

The next decade will see the United States become a major supplier of oil and natural gas and their derivative products. We are moving that way now. As soon as the fossil fuel hating bureaucracy is changed for a less ideological and more pragmatic regime our production of fuel will jump ahead. At the same time responsible investment in alternative sources of energy will be market driven with seed money from the national budget when necessary.

The free wheeling days of the Federal Reserve will come to an end. The printing of money and the unnatural fixing of interest rates will require more than the deliberations of a group of experts meeting in secrecy. Another experiment that will run its course in the next ten years is the national control of education. It has not worked. The result has been a dumbing down of the educational system and the creation of the self-serving Teachers Union that has made a sham out of collective bargaining and failed to teach the nation’s children. The Department of Education will be abolished and replaced by a very small Presidential Advisory Council. The primary role of educating our children will be delegated to the States.

Two more important changes will occur. A centrist government and those who elected it, will wonder if the government having more union members than the private sector is a good thing. The government union members have no skin in the game and really no one with whom to conduct collective bargaining. Certainly the government bureaucrats on the other side of the table have no skin in the game. In the private sector where real collective bargaining takes place as long as the government stays out of it are moving toward having a real stake in the company they work for. That’s a good thing. My last look into the future is in the area of medical care. Any government elected by the Center has to take on medical care of the people. There are pragmatic solutions. Using the forces of the market place to the extent possible is a starting point. Any system that allows patients to deal with their doctors and to have a say in the cost of their treatment will have an impact on pricing.

Obviously you cannot do justice to the next decade in a thousand words. But we all need to think about this coming election and concentrate on the real issues at stake. If not now, it will get harder and more dangerous later. It is time to begin.

Thank you to those who have read this.