Tag Archives: Russia

by starediting | September 9, 2013 · 10:54 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS – ADVISOR 74

WHAT THE RUSSIANS WANT

The Advisor had done some research in the history of Russia’s struggle to compete with British seapower and later the United States. The czars as well as Mr. Putin, who believes he is a czar, understand the need for the Russian fleet to have a warm water port. Without an all-weather port the Russians cannot extend their power much beyond their own borders. The Advisor thought, it is precisely this kind of knowledge the President does not have. Nothing in his background prepared him to understand the real world which is that nations act in their own interest. If you don’t understand this central reality, your foreign policy is composed of reactions to events you really don’t understand. Like it or not, his mission required him to educate as well as advise President Obama.

The Advisor knew the President seldom took his advice but he was enough of a scholar to listen thoughtfully and enough of an ideologue to follow his collectivist doctrine. The President would be down here within the next hour. I’ll ask him if he will allow me to present my research. Right on schedule, the ancient steel clad door opened and the President strode in. “Good evening Mr. President. The coffee is ready. Take what ever seat you want. I did some research this week and, if you will permit, I will give you the bottom lines.”

“Well, I thought your advice was just the result of your eight decades of life. I’m intrigued that you include research. So go ahead.”

“Thank you. Why are the Russians so hard to work with in the disaster we call Syria? Russia has no common border with Syria. Syria has no supply of oil or minerals. They have no exports Russia wants or needs. Yet Russia is sending game-changing weapons to Syria and, if their past behavior is any guide, they have or will also send technicians and weapons specialists to Syria. Putin knows there is no one to stop him. Certainly not any Arab or Persian State. Israel can’t without our help. The Euro powers are too focused on themselves to risk capital and blood for anyone else. I have no special insight to U.S. Russian policy but I do remember you whispering to President Medvedev before Putin took the presidency again, asking him to tell Putin you would have more flexibility after the election. Putin is a Czar. He only understands strength. Your secret message to Medvedev told Putin you were in a weak position. In Syria he believes you will not oppose Russia’s historical push to have a warm water port.

“Without a warm water port their fleet is frozen in, bottled up in the Black Sea or cruising far beyond their supply base for many months of each year. Again there is no proof I know of but the Soviet push into Afghanistan in the 1980s was another step in their bumbling efforts dating back to the Czars to gain a corridor to warm water. Syria has dangled a warm water port in the Mediterranean called Tartous. The Russians have already done significant development projects in this port. They really don’t much care who rules Syria as long as Tartous is firmly in Russian control. The Russians will do whatever is necessary to ensure they do not lose control of this port. They have never been so close in recent history to the control of a warm water port. A Syrian regime friendly to the United States that would exercise real control over Tartous is not acceptable. Putin, today, has no respect for America. He only understands strength and has no use for words that are mere rhetoric.

“There is more at stake in Syria than the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad from Syria. I don’t think your Administration understands the historical power that motivates Putin to capture an all-weather port. That single feat will mark him as the greatest of all Russia’s Czars. A warm water port at no cost in blood or treasure. A remarkable achievement.”

“You’re telling me Russia’s end game in Syria is for a seaport?”

“Yes. Of course, they don’t mind throwing all Western powers out of the Middle East.”

“No one on my team will believe your analysis.”

“Try some military scholars. They will tell you the same thing,” The Advisor said, as the President was getting up to leave. “Mr. President, maybe you need some different people on your team.”

The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an

Meeting with President Reagan, Vice President Bush, Deputy National Security Adviser Frank Carlucci and General Colin Powell in the Oval Office.

advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to share this on Facebook and to click the “like” button below. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful. Find and connect with the author on Goodreads.

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Eight Decades of Insights 65 (factsandfictions.com)

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Filed under Afghanistan, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Medvedev, Obama, Putin, Russia

Tagged as Obama, Russia, Syria, warm water port

by Barry Kelly | July 22, 2013 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 65

LEADING FROM BEHIND–THE ADVISOR

The Advisor was thinking about how forceful he could be in advising President Obama. The subject for his next visit would be the consequences in foreign policy of leading from behind. The President wasn’t a stupid or a cruel man. He was just a man who carried an enormous amount of baggage.

Could anyone walk away from the influences he was subject to in his earlier life? the advisor thought. Some he was personally responsible for, others he had no real choice. Parents from far to the left, several years in a Muslim Madrassi teaching Wahhabism. His father, an anti-colonialist Kenyan, whose family had been persecuted by the British Colonialists. For most of his formidable years he was exposed to radical leftist ideologies. Then, the influence of Ivy League progressives, Saul Alinsky and his radical plan for seizing power, Reverend Wright and his hate America sermons, William Ayers and his terrorist viewpoint and to top it off the ruthless and corrupt school of Chicago politics. The President never personally suffered from his associations and ideology. Therefore, he has no understanding of the consequences of following a revolutionary ideology. It is probably too late now but I must try. I will never knowingly give him bad advice or try to manipulate him. My mission code does not allow it. After all, he was elected twice and could probably win a third term if it were permitted.

The advisor’s musing is interrupted when the flashing red light and soft chiming called him to the phone.

The President arrived a few minutes later at nine o’clock PM. The President strode into the room, greeted the advisor and said, “Let’s get started. I have some extra time and need a cup of your coffee.”

“Mr. President, you look like a man who doesn’t have a care in the world.”

“Today was good day. No one was asking me to do the impossible. Why do my supporters and staff think I should get involved in everything?”

“You are the ‘point of the spear.’ They count on you to give them what they want without understanding that doing nothing is also, at times, a good action plan. There, a perfect opening for my talk. Remember, you told me to pick the topic. So I’m going to talk about the concept of leading from behind. Please interrupt at any time. I’m going to use foreign affairs as a backdrop for my advice.

“You are in the fifth year of your Presidency. That is long enough for you to own America’s position in the world. You will not like some of my statements. But I will assure you, the the facts are correct. My analysis may be faulty because I project it into the future where no one can be absolutely sure they are right. First our main adversary, Russia. They are stronger now than they were before your election. Today their fleet is in the Mediterranean, something that was inconceivable in the last several decades. They have nearly secured a warm water port in the Med, a Russian goal going back to the czars. They failed in Afghanistan to find a corridor to warm water. Russia’s ability to project power has been limited for centuries because they lacked a port with year round operations capability. The Syrian port of Tartous is the payoff for their support to Assad. Sure, they enjoy threatening American and Israeli interests in the Middle East, but Tartous is the real goal.

“To see more clearly the Russian move into the Middle East, imagine a monopoly game where the winner gains areas of influence and the losers, well, lose. You failed to negotiate a status of forces agreement in Iraq where it was in no one’s interest for the U.S. to abandon the country. Certainly sectarian violence would be lessened if we had a seat at the table. Iran could not supply Syria forces through or over Iraq. Iran could not threaten Iraq if we had maintained a presence in Iraq. Iran would have a harder time supplying Hezbollah and using that force to control Lebanon, another possibility for Russia to exploit to acquire a warm water port. Our anti-ballistic missiles on the ground in Iraq could bring more defense against an Iranian attack on Israel or the Sunni Middle East. ‘Leading from Behind’ policies have resulted in our loss of space supremacy, ABM land-based systems, and talks about unilaterally cutting force size and our inventor of ballistic missiles that have kept us from a nuclear war since WWII. Our loss of influence in Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and Pakistan is not a foreign affairs victory. Leading from behind means you are and will remain behind.

“Leading from behind does not win respect in the world. Your monopoly board does not look good. Putin has no respect for you as leader because he sees you weakening America and, therefore, believes you are not someone he should worry about. Most of the world respects power and distrusts weakness. To world leaders words don’t matter. Words without action are invisible. To start with I advise you to say less and do more. You can project American power without following the old colonial pattern you hate so much.”

The President puts his cup down, grinds out his cigarette.

The Advisor says, “Yes. I have known ever since you sent the bust of Winston Churchill back to England. Your constant concern is for the little nation, the poor people, the Muslim nations over the Colonial West. If you achieve your goal of leveling America and the world, you’ll destroy both and civilization of all will suffer. But that is for another time.”

The President gets up and strides to the door. He looks back as he leaves and says, “You can’t be right.”

The Advisor says, “Goodnight Mr.President,” to the sound of an automatic locking door.

He thought, that went well.

By the author of the Jack Brandon novels. http://www.factsandfictions.com

The author has 27 years of Government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as an advisor. Considering today’s volatile political situation, you are encouraged to pass on this blog or parts of it to your contacts and friends. Comments and dialogue are welcome and helpful.

Eight Decades of Insights – 13

The following are my opinions based on years of government service and academic study. This piece is not about Republicans versus Democrats. I’ve voted both ways and miss the Democratic Party that has been taken over by the Progressives who are definitely not Democrats or believers in the American Dream.

This election is not about Obamacare, war in Afghanistan, fossil fuel vs green renewables, immigration/border control, nuclear weapons for Iran, the Arab Spring, radical islam, monetary policy or all the other burning issues that disguise the real struggle.
In November the contest is about power. Everything else is simply a distraction or tactic to further the Progressives only goal, which is to get power and keep it. Only the Progressive Socialists understand the only real prize is power. It is perfectly acceptable within this ideology to say anything and do anything as long as one is focussed on getting power. Truth doesn’t matter. Keeping your word is not important. They are only words that can be recycled for the faithful. The “end justifies the means” is the Progressive ideological mantra.

This is not a conspiracy of the Democratic Party. The traditional Democrats are not evil. They are Americans who believe they have won an election.They are focused on the Progressive dream of a perfect utopian America. Now the Democrats must join with their Progressive leaders to achieve the goal of transforming America. Heard that before. Believe it. It is real. Before transformation America was a nation whose political system was founded on the diversification of power. Checks and balances. Three equal branches of Government. The Progressive agenda cannot prevail with power diffused. Piece by piece it must be centralized. Control of the health industry, the financial structure, industry, especially manufacturing, housing, traditional power generating resources, commerce and, of course, the unions is the prize. Jobs and the economy are only important as a means in the struggle for power. A failing economy, burdened with debt and high unemployment presents Progressives with opportunity.

Does acceptance that the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party is following a campaign focussed on centralizing power make current events and issues understandable? I believe it does. Mr. Alinsky has provided the plan. Now his disciples have only to carry it out. (Read Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals for more enlightenment.)

What traditional American political party would even consider undertaking the following issues and actions?
*Class warfare rhetoric about taxing the rich, taxpayers making more than $200K annually. Surely, they know the revenue gain would be marginal. But for the Progressives, the political appeal to the fifty per cent that pay no income taxes is a winning argument. The middle class is a force that must be destroyed. The middle class, in the Progressive scheme, is very different. We will all be in their middle class. It will be the only class. No one failing. No one succeeding. This is not the stuff of the American dream where hard work and sacrifice provide opportunity for the individual to advance. Try to get elected preaching the line that everyone gets the same income regardless of their success and work skills. It’s far too early for that political platform.
*Pushing an unpopular, poorly crafted health care bill through Congress was politically wise? Only for the goal of centralizing seven per cent of the economy was it worth the storm of protest. Thousands of new IRS officers will be policing the system. What better way to control people and their destiny. Is making the IRS even stronger and more pervasive an attractive political goal?
*Use of the Justice Department to challenge the power of the House of Representatives. Making the Congress look stupid is worth the few shouts of protests. The Justice Department will not investigated any White House leaks or anything else that reflects badly on the Administration. Forget border security and “Fast and Furious,” suing states, investigating voter ID laws in swing states is more likely. This is not the traditional Justice Department that protected our freedom. President Nixon misused the power of the executive branch and we know what happened to him.
*Deliberty dissing our traditional allies, the U.K. and Israel as well as India and Poland, all democracies. While catering to Russia, the Muslim world, Venezuela and China. Not a democracy among them. Is this traditional American foreign policy? Has it ever happened before?
*Supporting disruptive street demonstrations and the willful destruction of property by the “Occupy Wall Street” mob led by Van Jones, a former Obama Czar for Green industry and an avowed communist. Search your memory for the last time the Democratic or Republican Party publicly supported a similar action.
*Bringing back the very unpopular “Death Tax”. Why bring this up in an election year? Some believe that the Progressive wing of the Democratic party has always wanted to destroy wealthy family dynasties. They can weld too much power so they can be a check to Progressive attempts to gather power. And it appeals to the “want it now have nots”.
*Before any political group can usurp power, they must control the military. A weak military force with weak leadership is a much easier target. Taking money from Defense and using it on entitlement programs makes Progressive sense. It weakens the military and spreads more wealth to those who depend upon government and who vote for the hand that feeds them. Did anyone think sequestration would work? The Republican leadership that hasn’t yet figured out what is happening, fell for the sequestration bait. Now the nation has to cope with declining power in a dangerous world.
*What political party ever set out to destroy the American power industry? Or send billions of taxpayer dollars to make believe green solutions for energy independence? Progressives talk “all of the above,” but act differently. And routinely use the power of Executive Orders to marginalize Congress.

Does the above make sense within the American political sphere? Not for any traditional party. For the Progressives, it is the only platform they can use to transform America. Most of us will not recognize or like the end result.

Be careful Democrats! If the Progressives win, the next election could have very different rules and you won’t be part of it.