Tag Archives: shia

by Barry Kelly | July 12, 2014 · 7:30 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 126

WHEN TRUST FAILS

Forget for a moment about your biases, whether you’re pro- or anti-Israel, and look at the options the prime minister of Israel has in this growing conflict. He has no good options. He can’t count on the United States to keep the rest of the Arab countries out of the conflict. He must take action. He doesn’t have the luxury of doing nothing but talk. Rockets are falling on Israeli population centers. He knows, as everyone does, that the rockets are being fired from the Gaza Strip by Hamas, a recognized terrorist organization. It wasn’t very far in the past that Israel pulled out of the Gaza Strip at urging from the West that has struggled, painfully and ineffectively, to establish peace in the Middle East. A peace that the respective combatants don’t believe is possible. Both sides present goals that the opponents are not willing to offer.

Israel wants its Arab neighbors to recognize its right to exist as a nation state, more or less with existing boundaries. The Muslims want Israel to retreat to borders prior to the 1967 war. President Obama has stated the 1967 boundaries should be the starting point for negotiations. Israel believes the resulting Israeli nation would be untenable militarily and economically. Hamas and its West Bank partner would accept those boundaries as a starting point but at the same time render the whole process meaningless by their refusal to formally recognize Israel’s right to exist, regardless of any border. The main player, barely behind the scenes, Iran, has stated repeatedly it intends to wipe Israel off the map. Iran, a Muslim Shia state, funds, arms, and supports Hamas and Hezbollah, even though Hamas is Sunni while Hezbollah is predominately a Shiite organization. Without the aid and support of Iran and formerly Syria, neither group could survive.

Okay, that is the back story. What has changed?

The relationship between the American president and Israel has changed dramatically. Israel heard President Obama’s pro-Arab bias loud and clear. His disrespect of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the latter’s visits to America was off the charts. Israel has realized it can no longer count on American support or the word of its leader.

When the trust of America that Israel could count on previously disappeared, their options became more limited. When Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah, who also heard our president speak, no longer believe America is a player on the world scene their options increased.

The might of the United States is off the both the field of arms and the negotiating table. If there is to be peace in the Middle East, it will have to come from the Sunni powers that do not want war and the economic disruption that comes with it. Let us hope that the next administration will revert to supporting our only democratic ally in the region.

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Tagged as America, conflict, current-events, Iran, Islam, Israel, Middle East, Muslim, Netanyahu, Obama, shia, Shiite

by Barry Kelly | July 8, 2014 · 7:31 am

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 125

NEW MAP NEEDED

Put your old map of the Middle East in the pile of historical documents. For a hundred years, the national boundaries of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon followed the contours of the lines diplomats drew to show the demise of the Turkish Empire. Their inked lines paid little or no mind to the impact those lines would have on language groups, cultural and religious realities, and tribal territories.

Iraq is not now and never has been a nation with the common things that make a nation, a nation. Instead, it worked around religious animosities, language differences, and conflicting tribal affiliations. The work around was only possible due to the harsh policies of a Sunni aristocracy that had no hesitation about using brutal tactics to subjugate Shia and Kurdish minorities. The Kurds have wanted and fought for their own nation for decades. At times they have sought Western support only to be betrayed time after time. The Shia are pulled eastward to the strong Persian and Shia state of Iran, the same state that the Sunni leadership in Iraq fought a brutal war with in the 1980s. During that war, poison gas was used against the Iranians. Saddam Hussein was an equal dispenser of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). He also used poison gas on the Shia and the Kurds. Only ruthless cruelty and fear kept Iraq a nation.

Vice President Joe Biden, who almost got nothing right in his entire political career unless he copied it from someone else, stumbled on the right solution at the wrong time when he proposed dividing Iraq into Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish areas, provinces, or whatever. It was not to happen. His solution was too far outside the box for most of us.

President Obama made all the wrong moves and gave the wrong signals when he took power and pulled all our forces out of Iraq. But let’s be fair. The only way for Iraq to exist as a nation was to put a ruthless Sunni dictator back in power. That wasn’t going to happen. In its wisdom, the Bush Administration destroyed the Sunni-led Iraqi Army and ruling political party, clearing the way for weak Shia leaders to win or manipulate a democratic voting process that prepared the path for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to run a Shia regime that looked eastward to Iran for support and guidance, turning Iraq into an Iranian province.

Century after Western Diplomats drew ink lines to create Iraq and Syria. The tribes are re-drawing them in blood. These borders may last.

— Barry Kelly (@factsfictions80) June 30, 2014

Our president, who has a strong Sunni bias, knew he could not provide real military support to assist a Shia faction to battle a Sunni force. So all the hand-wringing over the number and kind of troops sent now to Iraq and what the president should do is wasted. Iraq is history. Now we need to seek common goals among the Sunnis and Kurds.

Either way, this is a perfect issue for President Obama to follow his mantra, “the issue is never the issue.” He never tries to solve issues anyway, he only uses them to destroy the opposition. In Iraq, doing nothing is close to being the perfect solution. The Republicans will find some way to use the Iraq issue against themselves.

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 120

IT’S TRANSFORMATION, DUMMY

If you watch the news long enough, you will see things that just make your head hurt. I remember Senator McCain pleading for the president to get a new national security staff because his current one was not serving the president well.

Where has the senator been?

Obama is not and never will be a fixer of issues. His only goal is transformation. After the progressives become the only political party and the opposition is gone, then, maybe, he will take on some issues. Until then, it is the issue is never the issue. Please, Senator McCain, write that down and study it.

The president has no interest in getting into a war among Muslims. His base wouldn’t stand for it. His interest is ending American interference with the sovereignty of other nations. He is after a weaker America that takes its proper role in the international order. I think without American boots on the ground and control of the air over Iraq and Syria, the entire area will separate into Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish areas. Even then the Kurds will need support from us to hold off the ISIS.

The ISIS is a primarily Sunni organization and its doubtful if President Obama would destroy a Sunni-backed and financed organization. The blood and treasure we poured into Iraq, the remarkable defeat of Saddam Hussein’s vaunted military, the near destruction of al-Qaeda, and the birth of a struggling democracy faded away when for deep seated ideological reasons, Obama did not want a residual force agreement to allow American troops to remain in Iraq. A strong, tough negotiating stance on our part would have crafted an agreement allowing some strategically placed bases to remain in Iraq. That process is part of winning. With U.S. bases in Iraq, the current disaster in Iraq and the chaos in Syria would either have not occurred or would have been solvable. But that is not the Obama way.

Our president has his eye only on transformation and he has a personal flaw of believing the world is as he sees it. If he wants foreign policy change, he resorts to words and pretends his words are all that is needed. His lines are not straight and red. They are swirls and very pale. Not one of our former allies or enemies trusts our words or believes in our resolve. A new national security team would make no difference. It is not about issues and under Obama it never will be.