Tag Archives: sunni

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 125

NEW MAP NEEDED

Put your old map of the Middle East in the pile of historical documents. For a hundred years, the national boundaries of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon followed the contours of the lines diplomats drew to show the demise of the Turkish Empire. Their inked lines paid little or no mind to the impact those lines would have on language groups, cultural and religious realities, and tribal territories.iraq

Iraq is not now and never has been a nation with the common things that make a nation, a nation. Instead, it worked around religious animosities, language differences, and conflicting tribal affiliations. The work around was only possible due to the harsh policies of a Sunni aristocracy that had no hesitation about using brutal tactics to subjugate Shia and Kurdish minorities. The Kurds have wanted and fought for their own nation for decades. At times they have sought Western support only to be betrayed time after time. The Shia are pulled eastward to the strong Persian and Shia  state of Iran, the same state that the Sunni leadership in Iraq fought a brutal war with in the 1980s. During that war, poison gas was used against the Iranians. Saddam Hussein was an equal dispenser of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). He also used poison gas on the Shia and the Kurds. Only ruthless cruelty and fear kept Iraq a nation.

Vice President Joe Biden, who almost got nothing right in his entire political career unless he copied it from someone else, stumbled on the right solution at the wrong time when he proposed dividing Iraq into Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish areas, provinces, or whatever. It was not to happen. His solution was too far outside the box for most of us.

President Obama made all the wrong moves and gave the wrong signals when he took power and pulled all our forces out of Iraq. But let’s be fair. The only way for Iraq to exist as a nation was to put a ruthless Sunni dictator back in power. That wasn’t going to happen. In its wisdom, the Bush Administration destroyed the Sunni-led Iraqi Army and ruling political party, clearing the way for weak Shia leaders to win or manipulate a democratic voting process that prepared the path for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to run a Shia regime that looked eastward to Iran for support and guidance, turning Iraq into an Iranian province.

Our president, who has a strong Sunni bias, knew he could not provide real military support to assist a Shia faction to battle a Sunni force. So all the hand-wringing over the number and kind of troops  sent now to Iraq and what the president should do is wasted. Iraq is history. Now we need to seek common goals among the Sunnis and Kurds.

Either way, this is a perfect issue for President Obama to follow his mantra, “the issue is never the issue.”  He never tries to solve issues anyway, he only uses them to destroy the opposition.  In Iraq, doing nothing is close to being the perfect solution. The Republicans will find some way to use the Iraq issue against themselves.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Intelligence & Politics, Kurds, Sunni

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 120

IT’S TRANSFORMATION, DUMMY

If you watch the news long enough, you will see things that just make your head hurt. I remember Senator McCain pleading for the president to get a new national security staff because his current one was not serving the president well.

Where has the senator been?

Obama is not and never will be a fixer of issues. His only goal is transformation.  After the progressives become the only political party and the opposition is gone, then, maybe, he will take on some issues. Until then, it is the issue is never the issue. Please, Senator McCain, write that down and study it.

The president has no interest in getting into a war among Muslims. His base wouldn’t stand for it. His interest is ending American interference with the sovereignty of other nations. He is after a weaker America that takes its proper role in the international order. I think without American boots on the ground and control of the air over Iraq and Syria, the entire area will separate into Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish areas. Even then the Kurds will need support from us to hold off the ISIS.

The ISIS is a primarily Sunni organization and its doubtful if President Obama would destroy a Sunni-backed and financed organization. The blood and treasure we poured into Iraq, the remarkable defeat of  Saddam Hussein’s vaunted military, the near destruction of al-Qaeda, and the birth of a struggling democracy faded away when for deep seated ideological reasons, Obama did not want a residual force agreement to allow American troops to remain in Iraq. A strong, tough negotiating stance on our part would have crafted an agreement allowing some strategically placed bases to remain in Iraq. That process is part of winning. With U.S. bases in Iraq, the current disaster in Iraq and the chaos in Syria would either have not occurred or would have been solvable. But that is not the Obama way.

Our president has his eye only on transformation and he has a personal flaw of believing the world is as he sees it. If he wants foreign policy change, he resorts to words and pretends his words are all that is needed. His lines are not straight and red. They are swirls and very pale. Not one of our former allies or enemies trusts our words or believes in our resolve. A new national security team would make no difference. It is not about issues and under Obama it never will be.

 

 

 

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Obama